Tag Archives: RBA

Will the Pound continue to improve against the Australian Dollar?

Sterling is now trading close to its best level against the Australian Dollar in almost two years as the Australian economy continues to shows signs of a struggle.

Australian inflation data is released on Tuesday and this could provide us with evidence of what the RBA may need to do in terms of monetary policy in the near future.

The RBA is under pressure at the moment as it appears as though the country is split between the east and the west with the western economy showing signs of a real slowdown compared to what is happening in both Sydney and Melbourne.

With the western part of the country so entrenched in the mining industry any slowdown in China will often cause the Australian Dollar to weaken and this is in part one of the reasons for the recent period of Australian Dollar weakness.

The Australian Dollar has also been affected by the decision made in the US to continue in their course of raising interest rates. In previous years Australia has had one of the highest interest rate yields available in the developed world.

However, the US has now overtaken them and this has caused global investors to move their money away from Australia and this has seen Sterling break past 1.83 during the course of this week providing some excellent opportunities to send money down under.

With the Bank of England due to meet on 10th May I think there is a strong chance of a rate hike coming in the UK as well and this could see further strength for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar. Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars to buy Pounds it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

For further information about how to save money when exchanging Australian Dollars and if you’d like to save money compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian inflation key to the next move for Australian Dollar exchange rates

The Australian Dollar has had a mixed week, the RBA meeting minutes from the last RBA interest rate decision suggested that we still cannot see any movement for interest rates in sight and both Chinese growth figures and Australian unemployment were fairly solid.

We have not seen a huge amount of volatility for the Australian Dollar off the back of these data sets, and all eyes now will look towards Australian inflation figures which are due out on Tuesday.

Inflation is expected to have got a little higher in Tuesday’s figures and this may lead to a little improvement for the Australian Dollar early in the week, in my opinion though any improvements in the Australian Dollar may be short lived, I still feel that we are set for a period of weakness for Australian Dollar exchange rates.

As I have mentioned in previous posts there are various reasons for this, inclusive of interest rates rising in other economies around the world, Australian economic data not being great, falling commodity prices and global risk sentiment dropping due to political issues and trade wars. The Australian Dollar is classed as a riskier currency so when global tensions are high you tend to see the Australian Dollar lose ground against most major currencies.

Interest rates are vital to the performance of a currency too as a higher interest rate will make a currency more attractive to investors, with areas such as the U.S now raising rates to a level above Australian interest rates we are seeing qwuite a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar, making the Australian Dollar weaker and cheaper to buy.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you would like my assistance with achieving the best rate and the timing of it all too then you are moire than welcome to contact me directly and I would be more than happy to help you personally. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you to discuss the options available to you.

Could the Pound continue its recent strong run vs the Australian Dollar?

Although the Pound dipped yesterday vs the Australian Dollar after UK inflation came out slightly lower than expected the Pound has risen once against vs the AUD during today’s trading session.

UK inflation is a key factor in determining when the Bank of England may look at raising interest rates and the chances are very high that a rate hike may occur when the central bank meet again on 10th May.

Indeed, according to some reports the chances are as high as 85% of an interest rate hike.

The Pound has made a lot of gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few months and although we saw a brief fall earlier this week I think the negative movement will be relatively short lived.

With the US having increased rates recently the US interest rates now have a higher yield than having money in Australia and this is one of the reasons why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently particularly vs the Pound.

On Tuesday, Australia releases its latest inflation data and with the RBA having announced recently that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future the data release could cause a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates.

On Wednesday Australia celebrates ANZAC day so expect the markets to remain quite midweek so if you’re happy with rates are on Wednesday that may be the day to make your move.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar rate trading at annual high, will the pair now climb higher? (Joseph Wright)

The exchange rate for changing Pounds into Aussie Dollars has traded within half-a-cent from its annual high today, as the almost hit 1.85 again during today’s trading session.

As many of our regular readers will be aware, sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved quite considerably recently after roughly a month ago the UK and EU Brexit negotiators came to an agreement regarding the Brexit transitional deal. This was a topic that limited the Pound’s value prior tot he agreement, as there were concerns that there would be a Hard Brexit which most likely would’ve resulted in a weaker Pound due to the shock to the UK economy.

Now that there is likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month, sentiment is improving as the UK economy is showing signs of picking up, even if the Brexit has slowed the economy somewhat.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound climb from its current levels as I think AUD will continue to lose value throughout the year. Now that the Fed Reserve has begun hiking interest rates in the US, AUD is likely to lose some of its attractiveness as it will no longer be offering one of the highest interest rates within the developed world. At the same time trade tensions between the US and China are likely to limit upside for AUD in my opinion.

There are expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates to 1.75% at the end of this year, although up until this stage the RBA has been skeptical due to the overheating property market down under, particularly on the East coast. With the RBA being weary of the effects this could have on the Australian economy, I think they will leave it late before making an amendment.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Could GBPAUD continue towards 1.90?

Since the start of the year GBPAUD exchange rates have improved by over 10 cents, and clients converting £200,000 into Australian dollars are now achieving an additional 25,ooo dollars. 

The Australian dollar continues to struggle on due to the over inflated housing market which is a reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. Furthermore ‘trade wars’ between the US and China (Australia main trading partner), is causing investors to move away from risky commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The pound has had a good run of late due to the UK securing a transitional deal and the Bank of England hinting that an interest rate hike is likely for June. Today the UK will release their latest average earnings numbers and on Thursday their latest inflation numbers. The consensus is for average earnings to outpace inflation for the first time in many years.

If this is the case, an interest rate hike looks almost certain and therefore I expect the pound may rise slightly against the Australian dollar. However I expect that the market has already priced in the interest rate hike in May, therefore I don’t see the pound making substantial gains.

Looking further ahead I don’t believe it’s all smiles for Australian dollar buyers. The most important element of Brexit is to be decided which is the trade talks. Over the last 18 months we have seen the pound come under pressure when a fresh round of Brexit talks begin. If you need to purchase Australian dollars short to medium term, this week could provide the best opportunity for some time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar waits for Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Chinese GDP

Australian Dollar exchange rates have suffered a little weakness against most major currencies today, as investors and speculators await the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and Chinese Growth figures all out tomorrow.

The main focal point for the RBA minutes will be any nod to plans for the next interest rate change, at present interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold for a record number of meetings, it does appear that this will still be the case for the foreseeable future too.

Interest rates are key to the value of a currency because a higher interest rate will generally make it more attractive to investors, so the fact that the RBA have not moved to raise interest rates for a long period of time, yet other central banks such as the Federal Reserve have made that move is leading to weakness for the Australian Dollar which I still feel may continue in the coming months.

On the other hand we also have Chinese growth figures due out too, with expectations of a slight drop off in growth expected in China. Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar too due the the sheer volume China imports from Australia, helping the Australian economy.

Should Chinese growth figures have slowed a little and the RBA also give no further positive rate news then we may see Australian weakness overnight.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

 

 

Chinese data gives the Australian Dollar strength to round off the week

We have seen a little strength for the Australian Dollar as we head to the end of the trading week, following better than expected Chinese economic data released overnight.

Trade surplus in China was a lot better than expected coming in way above expectations of $179bn at a level of $326.1bn, this was seen as good news for the Chinese economy and with China being a huge trading partner for Australia any good news from China can lead to Australian Dollar strength.

We have very little in terms of economic data to come out as the weekend nears, so all eyes will now more than likely be on the RBA interest rate decision meeting minutes which are due out next week. This will show what was discussed at the last Australian interest rate decision and my feelings are that we may see a little Australian Dollar weakness after this comes out.

Philip Lowe commented last week that he does not expect to see a rate hike being a possibility for a while, and with the level of household debt and poor wage growth still being a concern for the RBA I believe this will be echoed in the meeting minutes and that will drop the value of the Australian Dollar.

An interest rate hike is usually seen as a positive for a currency and with other major economies currently seeing rate rises we are starting to see the Australian Dollar get left behind. As an example, the interest rate in the U.S is now higher than Australia’s and with the U.S Dollar being seen as a less risky option yet with a more attractive return we are seeing a flow of money out of the Australian Dollar and into the U.S Dollar as a result of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving Australian Dollars then it is well worth you contacting me directly. You can get in touch with me by emailing me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to see how I can help you. We offer highly competitive exchange rates along with help on timing your transaction and would like to think our customer service is way above and beyond elsewhere. I look forward to speaking with you.

Westpac issues warning for Australian dollar sellers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In a recent report by Westpac have warned their Australian clients that further falls could be on the horizon for the Australian dollar. Commodity prices including iron ore and coaking coal (used for making steel) have dropped 15-20% since February and this trend could continue if there is a slowdown in china like many forecasters are predicting. One of the reasons why people believe there will be a slowdown is because China appear to be entering a trade war with the US.

In other news Governor  of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe will address the public Wednesday morning and give another overview of how the Australian economy is performing. The recent commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia is that interest rates will remain on hold for the time being. This is another reason why forecasters are suggesting the Australian dollar could lose further value as carry traders sell off their positions and look to purchase US dollars due to the higher returns now on offer.

When buying or selling Australian dollars it’s important to analyse the other currency that you will be converting as it can have an impact on the exchange rate you receive. The key data releases to look out for around the globe are ECB Mario Draghi’s speech, US Consumer Price Index, US FOMC minutes all Wednesday afternoon and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s speech Thursday afternoon.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar exchange rates look ahead to RBA interest rate for next stages of movement

Australian Dollar exchange rates have weakened against a basket of major currencies this week so far and depending on just what we hear back from the RBA during their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement next week. Expectations are for no change to interest rates either at this particular decision or for the coming months but what will be key for the Australian Dollar will be the comments in the monetary policy statement afterwards, and the tone taken by the RBA.

Recent comments from the RBA have suggested that they are not happy with Australian economic data at present and that this will hold them back from looking to raise rates in the near future. This is slowly dropping Australia behind, investors are pulling their money out of the Australian Dollar to seek higher returns elsewhere, for example moving money into U.S Dollars where the interest rate is now higher and the currency is perceived as a safer option.

One of the key issues for the RBA at present is the fact that average earnings/wage growth is not picking up at the pace they would like it to. This causes an issue as if the general consumer’s earnings are not moving up in line with inflation, then essentially people are going to have less money in their pocket to spend which leads to the economy weakening slightly.

This issue has been quite common around the globe, however many other regions are now starting to find that their average earnings figures are rising which is giving them more room to raise interest rates which is why the Australian Dollar is starting to suffer as a result.

My personal view has been that we will have a weak year for the Australian Dollar this year, and I have been saying that for a number of months now. It does appear at present that these predictions are starting to come true.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months ahead and you would like my assistance both with the timing of your transfer and getting the best rate when you come to book it out, then do feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to speak with you personally about your own situation and how to approach it. We specialise in currency for international property purchases/sales or clients who are emigrating or moving home. I look forward to speaking with you.