Tag Archives: RBA
Following the recent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 2.75% will this see the first of many throughout the course of 2013? For me I would certainly not be surprised to see another quarter or half point cut by the end of the year but this may well depend on the economic activity/output from China. Recent figures from China have been much softer than late and this may prove a worrying concern to the RBA and I feel they will keep their cards very close to their chest about future monetary policy. What does this mean for the value of the Aussie? Since the start of March we have seen the pound rally nearly 5% and I for one feel this may well be the start of a revival for the pound and would look for moves towards 1.55 in the coming weeks. For this reason I would urge anyone selling AUD to look at their options whilst rates are still historically very favourable, for those buying I feel you will get more value for the pound as we head into the summer months.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email me with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email email@example.com
Interest rates have been kept on hold again by the Reserve Bank of Australia this month as confirmed in the minutes published this morning. With rising house prices and strong retail sales there was little need for the RBA to move interest rates. The RBA has said that it is prepared to cut interest rates if required but for the moment the economy is doing well so why change a winning formula.
The news in Cyprus is causing shock waves across the fx markets particularly for the Euro with GBPEUR the highest for almost 2 months. Typically uncertainty in Europe often causes a sell off for the Australian Dollar as investors shy away from the risk element but with the RBA’s minutes this morning has seen a lack of movement on exchange rates today.
Manufacturing and tourism are being negatively affected by the high Aussie Dollar so as always the question is how long can this strength last? With the economy on paper at least remaining strong especially in the mining industry this strength could last for quite some time. In the short term however the UK announces its Budget tomorrow so all eyes will be on whether Chancellor George Osborne can put in plans for growth. If he can we could see some good short term buying opportunities for GBPAUD exchange rates.
To be kept updated with announcements in the Budget tomorrow feel free to email me directly Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold for the second month in a row this morning but there are fears that the RBA may cut rates further this year. The official interest rate is currently at 3% and part of the reason for keeping them on hold was due to retail sales remaining strong this year. Typically interest rates are cut to encourage growth and spending but with Australians spending freely at the moment it is unlikely we;’ll see a rate cut next month either causing further AUD strength against USD, GBP & Euro.
One of the ongoing issues that faces the Australian economy is the imbalance between the rich mining industry and the rest of the country. With Chinese growth remaining strong this has kept the Aussie Dollar particular strong against Sterling with further strength expected. Indeed, one of the objectives for the RBA is to rebalance Australia’s growth between the mining economy and the rest of the country.
There are some predictions that the RBA may push rates back to 4% later this year if the economy stabilises in the meantime without adjusting the official cash rate. With GBPAUD rates hitting 1.4750 this afternoon it is difficult to see the Pound recover against the AUD in the short term. The current quarter for the UK will decide whether or not Britain will be ion a triple dip recession and if that comes true we could see further Sterling losses so if you’re considering an Australian Dollar currency transfer it may be worth considering doing so in the next few days.
Governor of the Bank of England talks tomorrow morning and typically over the last year when he talks it often has a negative impact on the Pound so if you have a currency transfer to make get in touch for a free quote Tom Holian email@example.com and find out how as a specialist currency broker we may be able to help save you money
This week is a particularly busy week for the GBP/AUD pairing with plenty of data sets being released. Below I have outlined the major data sets and the potential outcomes:
- Overnight at 00:20 GMT we have Retails Sales figures from Australia – expected to show an increase month on month from -0.2% to 0.4% and should give strength to the AUD.
- Following this at 03:30 GMT we have the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing their latest interest rate decision. Expected to stay on hold at 3% but with rumblings that the RBA may continue with their recent stance of cutting the base rate then the subsequent statement that follows should be keenly viewed. Any suggestions the RBA will be cutting in the months to come and we could see the dollar weaken as a result.
- Heading into Wednesday at 00.30 GMT watch out for GDP data from Australia, expected to show a slight improvement month on month from 0.5% to 0.6% – any deviation and expect volatility.
- Thursday is the key day from the pounds point of view with the Bank of England releasing their interest rate decision 12:00 GMT. Again expected to stay on hold but an outside chance of a rate cut that would in theory significantly weaken sterling, one to avoid if buying AUD.
As you can see it is a very busy week. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and would like to discuss the current market trends and data sets in more detail then please do not hesitate to contact me on either 01494 787478 or by emailing Mike at firstname.lastname@example.org and I will provide further insight into market forecasts and how we can help you save money on your foreign exchange.
With the RBA cutting interest rates a number of times during 2012 this year will be an interesting time to see if the RBA continues to cut so ruthlessly as it did last year. The RBA are due to meet on February 5th but my personal feeling is that there will be no rate change this week. My reasoning is that we are still at the beginning of the year and the country seems to have stabilised recently. With GBPAUD exchange rates dropping to 1.49 in January over the last couple of weeks we have seen it return to as high as 1.53 even though Sterling seems to be struggling against all its other major currency pairs.
With Chinese data remaining fairly robust as of late and a new Chinese PM who joined us in late 2012 the Australian Dollar has remained strong owing to what seems to be happening in China. One Of the problems more long term for this year could be the problems of the buoyant mining industry and all other parts of the economy in Australia. I for one think his period is cyclical and think we will hit 1.60 toward the end of Q2 if the UK staves off recession. As the global economy begins to improve this means there is more risk appetite but with Australia so reliant on one country I think it could experience some problems in the next few months.
Keep your eyes on the RBA statement released shortly after the rate decision as this will provide investors with some guidance as to what may happen next month which will have a bearing on the Australian Dollar exchange rate. If you are based in the UK and want to be kept up to date feel free to contact me directly via email Tom Holian email@example.com If you would like more information on Sterling Euro information this weekend click on www.poundsterlingforecast.com to find our more
Exchange rates are much like weather, accurate predictions are almost impossible. You can make as much preparation as possible but still be caught out by unexpected changes.
Exchange rates like weather do follow reasonably predictable trends with certain limits however. It would be a shock for it to start snowing in July in the UK but not impossible. This is similair to saying GBPAUD could go to 1.70. It could but it is highly unlikely.
Understanding what is driving the rate and is keeping levels where they are is a key component of getting the best deal. All too often we have clients who have a short term requirement and is magically hoping for the exchange rate to climb sometimes 10 cents in a short space of time.
Getting the best rate may actually mean trading at a level you previously did not want to. As many a wise man and woman has stated it is often best to hope for the best, plan for the worst. Some kind of contingency plan is always sensible to make sure you do not miss out. For a free, no obligation discussion of your currency transfers please feel free to contact me directly. Getting your timing on a currency deal is very important so even if your transfer is just a one off do not hesitate to get in touch for more information. Think of it as putting an umbrella in your bag when you don’t know quite what the weather may do. It will only take you a minute to do but could end up being a godsend if you need it.
You can contact the author directly on firstname.lastname@example.org or call (+44) 01494 787 478.
Australian unemployment data released yesterday showed that the unemployment rate remained at 5.4% in line with expectation which is a two and a half year high. This has slightly weakened the AUD$ but only by a small amount as often currency markets move more when figures are better or worse than expectation. The number of people in employment has grown by 18,900 to 8.13mn but the figure was tainted by an 8,000 drop in part time jobs to 3.393 million. The figures are neither good nor bad so the GBPAUD exchange rates have only moved in a small range.
Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold which was a surprise to many and I’ll be honest including myself as I thought with the aggressive cutting displayed earlier this year I thought interest rates may drop to 3%. As the RBA kept rates the same and with job numbers remaining within a comfortable range I think next month the RBA will now do the same and keep interest rates on hold. One of the reasons why the RBA didn’t alter monetary policy was that the global economy looks to have settled down and with Obama coming in for a second term I would be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates improve in the short term as investors look to plough more funds into the Aussie.
Later today both the Bank of England and the European Central bank meet to discuss interest rates. There has been a lot of talk about the Bank of England and more Quantitative Easing measures this month as November is the time when the previous amounts are due to run out so if you have a requirement to sell Sterling and buy Australian Dollars it may be worth having a chat with me today. Feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian email@example.com
Australian Dollar Forecast today is for GBPAUD exchange rates to drop to below 1.53 on mid-market this afternoon.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold yesterday which has provided the AUD with some strength and seen GBPAUD exchange rates fall to 1.53 in mid-market. There was a chance the RBA could cut rates but keeping them on hold has seen the currency benefit. The RBA commented that an inflation rise during the previous quarter was one of the main factors in the decision process. China which is Australia’s largest export market has taken 27.1% of Australia’s merchandise exports in the previous quarter compared to 27.7% compared to this time twelve months ago. Mineral and coal exports were also down 22.1% and 22.3% respectively over the year. it could be argued that a slowing down of the Chinese economy could result in a weaker AUD but these figures are still extremely strong and whilst the rest of the western economies are struggling we could see the AUD remain in this range for the short term.
With Obama being re-elected for a second term this has provided the currency markets with some stability as the policies are likely to remain the same. This could also be another reason why we have seen the AUD strengthen as it creates more of an appetite for investors putting money into the Australian Dollar. If you would like to know more about the impact of the US election and Obama’s new term please do not hesitate to contact me directly. Email me Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org