Tag Archives: RBA

How long will this period of Australian dollar strength against sterling?

My recent article this weekend suggested that there was a possibility that GBPAUD could reach 1.80 in the upcoming weeks and until late yesterday afternoon this prediction looked very likely. However the DUP at the close of business yesterday evening announced they are unhappy that UK Prime Minister could offer a different border control for Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK. Off the back of the news the pound lost ground against all of the G10 currencies and the Australian dollar.

Later that evening, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 1.5%, which was no surprise, however surprisingly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary was extremely positive which strengthened the Australian dollar further against the pound. With the amount of strength we have seen for the Aussie rumors the Reserve Bank of Australia may appear to be backtracking and actually could raise interest rates early next year. If this is the case, it’s quite clear that the RBA have been jawboning in an attempt

However, I’m still of the opinion that the UK will secure some kind of deal in the upcoming weeks with the EU which will mean trade negotiations will begin in the New Year. If this is the case this period of strength for the Australian dollar against sterling could be short lived therefore I would recommend any client converting Australian dollars into sterling should look to make arrangements sooner rather than later.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Factors influencing GBPAUD exchange rates

In recent weeks the pound has been making considerable gains against the Australian dollar for a few reasons. The Reserve Bank of Australia more often than not have been giving dovish statements in regards to future interest rate hikes. The Governor has said that it’s likely the next decision will be to hike however this may be at the end of 2018 or even 2019.

The US federal reserve have been hinting towards raising interest rates in December which would mean US and Australian interest rate would be the same. Speculators have and will flock to the US dollar instead of the Aussie as its seen as a safer currency and therefore less risk. Less demand for the Australian dollar means it becomes cheaper to buy.

Deadline day is getting closer for the UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The EU Commission will meet on the 14th and 15th December to discuss whether trade negotiations can begin between the UK and EU. Reports are suggesting that the divorce bill and EU citizens rights could be agreed but the sticking point could still be the Irish border.

Personally I expect the Australian dollar could have a tough end to the year and major sell offs of Australian dollars into US dollars. Couple that with positive news from the Brexit negotiations, I expect GBPAUD exchange rates could push towards the 1.80 mark.

If you are trading GBPAUD this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage, I would strongly recommend you compare rates as I am confident I will be able to offer you additional savings with your transfer. All you need to do is email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

RBA Interest rate decison (Daniel Johnson)

RBA keep Rates on hold

During the night we saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Rates were kept on hold at 1.5%, this was anticipated so id did not have a significant impact on Australian dollar value. The market moves on rumor as well as fact, volatility is created when things don’t go according to the general consensus.

Interest Rate Forecast

I would expect interest rates to remain at these levels for the foreseeable future due to the situation with the Australian housing market and Chinese growth. Housing prices in Melbourne and Sydney are well above the national average due to the higher wages being offered in the cities. This is all very well, but when you have foreign investors buying the properties unconcerned with the inflated process we are starting to see a housing bubble start to emerge. A very similar situation to London, a bubble that can not afford to burst.

There is also Australia’s heavy dependence on the Chinese to purchase their raw materials. Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such it’s price can influence Australian Dollar value. Despite Chinese growth still being healthy it is by no means as strong as previous years which is worrying considering Australian’s heavy reliance on the Chinese. It is wise to keep an eye on both Chinese growth data and Iron ore prices if you are considering trading Aussie.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk 

RBA leave interest rates on hold as expected (Daniel Wright)

This morning the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) announced that they would be leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% which was exactly as the markets had originally expected.

The decision didn’t have a huge impact on the value of the Australian Dollar as it had been widely expected that rates will remain on hold for the coming months.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency and a cut in rates is seen as negative so interest rate movements can be key for a currencies strength. Even the mere mention or speculation of a hike or cut in interest rates can lead to exchange rates moving quite a lot, so any hints or change to the likelihood of a rate change may be of great importance if you have a pending exchange to carry out.

I still personally feel that the Australian Dollar may have a slightly rough patch coming up, although it does have a great backbone and constantly seems to fight back even in the toughest of times.

We have a huge amount of economic data due out in China tomorrow which will be key for where Australian Dollar exchange rates head for the rest of the week, along with Chinese inflation data on Thursday too. We have very little out from Australia over the course of the week that should impact the value of the Australian Dollar so focus will no doubt be on what the data from China brings.

Chinese data can have a large impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to Australia’s large amount of exports to China so this data is important for anyone looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars.

If you have the need to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or months then it may be prudent to get in contact with me directly and I would be more than happy to help you.

Not only can we better rates from all major brokerages but we can also help you with the timing of your transfers, we have various contract types that we can offer from limit orders to forward contracts and can help tailor a game plan to suit you personally. Making international transfers is important and the difference from broker to broker can be thousands of Dollars. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Sterling to Aussie Dollar rate plunges after BoE rate hike, what happened? (Joseph Wright)

This afternoon at lunchtime the Bank of England hiked interest rates by the expected 0.25 basis points, although in the immediate aftermath the Pound fell dramatically against every major currency pair.

At the time of writing the Pound to Aussie rate has fallen by 2% with the GBPAUD rate now sitting at 1.6917 and the AUDGBP rate sitting at 0.5910.

This afternoons move has come as a surprise to the markets, as usually when the base rate increases the underlying currency climbs. The opposite has happened today though as it appears that prior to the move by the Bank of England the hike was priced into the market, and the commentary afterwards was a bit more bearish than the Sterling bulls had hoped for.

It’s looking like there won’t be a particularly aggressive approach from the Bank of England regarding monetary policy moving forward, which is why we’ve seen the Pound lose so much value in such a short space of time.

There won’t be any further major economic announcements out of the UK tomorrow that are likely to move markets to such a great extent, although Australian Retail Sales data is coming out in the early hours of this morning which may impact the rates.

If you wish to be kept updated regarding any other short-term price movements between the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me. Moves such as today’s can result in large differences in a currency transfer outcome so being aware of these moves can be highly beneficial.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

 

Australian inflation and UK GDP push GBPAUD above 1.70

GBPAUD exchange rates have strengthened by 3 and 1/2 cents today off the back of Australian and UK economic data  releases. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 transfer at the high of the day compared to the low would have achieved our clients an additional 7,000 Australian dollars.

In the early hours of the morning Australia released their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. Forecasters were predicting 2% however the inflation numbers disappointing and fell to 1.8%, leading to a sell off of the Australian dollar. The reason for the Australian dollar being heavily sold off is because now inflation has fallen the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to give dovish statements in regards to interest rates.

Later in the morning the third revision of UK GDP was released. GDP exceeded expectation and was released at 0.4% from 0.3%. This doesn’t seem much, however it shows growth and something that many economists have not foreseen. The pound strengthened dramatically against all of the major currencies as this data release could be the final nail in the coffin and the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates on November 2nd.

For clients buying Australian dollars using sterling, central levels have now broken through 1.70 and for many clients this has been there target over the last 6 months. People need to remember that central levels were in the 1.50s not long ago. For clients trading short term, you need to decide whether to cash in now or wait for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Brexit to dictate GBPAUD exchange rates

Last week GBPAUD exchange rates were heavily influenced by Brexit developments. There were a few key head lines.Firstly Brexit negotiations had hit deadlock according to head EU negotiator Michel Barniner however European Council President Donald Tusk believes the deadlock comments had been exaggerated. In addition UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave a speech at the EU summit late Friday and confirmed the UK and EU had made key progress and a deal on EU citizens rights is nearly secured and reports are suggesting that she could offer another €20bn for the divorce settlement fee.

It appears that Brexit negotiations are heating up, and if EU citizens rights and the divorce settlement bill are agreed, I expect that the pound will make considerable in roads against the Australian dollar. 

In other news there are a few key economic data releases to look our for in the weeks to come. On Wednesday morning Australia will release their latest inflation numbers. This data releases can have a major influence on future monetary policy decisions. Furthermore forecasters are still suggesting there is over 50% chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates on November 2nd. If this occures GBPAUD exchange rates could break through the 1.70 barrier.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Fall in Iron Ore Price could have ramifications for the Australlian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Iron Ore drops in value

Iron ore is Australia’s primary export and as such fluctuations in it’s value effect the value of the Australian Dollar. Over the past few weeks we have seen a significant fall in iron ore price. Despite this the Aussie has remained resilient against the pound. This is not to say it is not concerning, the absence of a large drop in Australian dollar value could be attributed to Sterling weakness due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

RBA Meeting’s Minutes

During the early hours of tomorrow morning we will see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The minutes are released two weeks  after the interest rate decision and can give an indication as to monetary policy moving forward. If there is any hint to a raise in rates expect investors to react and we could see a significant spike in AUD value, as we witnessed recently when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England when he hinted hint towards a hike for the UK in November and GBP/AUD breached 1.70.

I would be surprised if this occurred however, I expect a dovish tone. I do not think the current economic data releases from down under warrant a hike. Retail sales data recently came in at a four year low.

If you are looking at the health of the UK’s and Australia’s economies, I think Australia is in a much better situation at present. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit is hindering any advances made by Sterling.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

 

Why does the Australian dollar remain strong when iron ore prices continue to fall?

For regular readers they will be aware that Australia’s largest export Iron ore has a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. If iron ore prices fall the trend is for the Australian dollar to fall and vice versa. However, iron ore prices have been falling recent however Australian dollar exchange rates remain resilient. There are two main reasons for this.

Another trend that has an impact on Australian dollar exchange rates is the performance of emerging markets. When emerging stock markets outpace that of developed the Australian dollar also performs well. In recent months emerging markets have been performing well and forecasters expect this trend to continue. In addition, interest rate forecasters tend to disagree with the RBA as they believe the RBA will hike interest rates throughout 2018.

Commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia, I believe will continue to dictate exchange rates   therefore people with an upcoming Australian dollar exchange should continue to monitor developments.

Economic data releases that will impact Australian dollar exchange rates 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning the RBA are set to release their latest minutes. My personal opinion is that the Governor does not want to strengthen the Australian dollar any further and thats why he continues with the stance of interest rates won’t be raised anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if the minutes give any further insight.

Later in the week (Thursday) the latest unemployment numbers will be released. Over the last 3 years the Australian job market has gone from strength to strength and at present remains at a record low of 5.6%. The Governor of the RBA is wary that if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen the job market could be impacted however for the time being it looks like the unemployment numbers will remain at 5.6%.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar gains a little strength after higher inflation expectations (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar gained a little ground against most major currencies during trading yesterday, following news that expectations for inflation over the next 12 months had risen from 3.8% in September to 4.3% currently.

On top of this, the number of participants in the inflation survey expecting inflation to be on the up rose from 58.4% to 62.8%, with only 3.8% expecting inflation to fall.

The reason that this has led to a little Australian Dollar strength is that it increases the chance of an interest rate hike. An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for a currency as it makes it more attractive to investors and a cut in interest rates is generally seen as negative.

One way of slowing rising inflation is to hike interest rates, so the fact that inflation is expected to continue rising at a fairly rapid pace may well lead to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) having to reconsider when they next intend to hike interest rates. At present some institutions feel that we may see a hike in early 2018 whilst others are not expecting any rate hikes now until at least 2019, the market appears to be split.

The Australian Dollar has had a fairly flat period this week against most majors, and with little data for the market to feed off of for the rest of the week I would expect this trend to continue. Next week focus will be on the RBA meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision and unemployment data too, so there is certainly potential for a lot more movement.

If you have a currency exchange to make involving the Australian Dollar and you would like me to assist you then I can, both in terms of getting you to top market rates and helping you with the timing of your transaction.

If you would like to speak with me directly about our service, and to get a live quote from me then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will get in touch personally. We help people moving money to and from Australia for emigration and many other reasons and would love to help you too.