Tag Archives: RBA

Pound to Austrlian dollar predictions: Major volatility expected for pound to Australian dollar exchange rates

Of late mixed outlooks for the Australian dollar has caused the pound to remain range bound against sterling, with GBPAUD fluctuating close to 1.80. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut interest rates and forecasters second guessed that another cut is on the horizon as the RBA would need to follow the trend of its nearest neighbour as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 0.5% as their last meeting. In addition the RBA has even hinted at more unconventional methods such as quantitative easing and history would tell us that this could have a detrimental impact on the value of the Australian dollar.

However in recent RBA minutes, the RBA have stated that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have actually been on the rise in recent months which is positive news for Australia as the housing market is a key cog to Australian economy. Therefore further cuts in interest rates should help the housing market however the RBA will have to think again if house prices continue to rise.

In less than two weeks MPs in the UK will return to the House of Commons and all eyes will turn to the leader of the opposition. Jeremy Corbyn has stated that he will file a motion of confidence against Boris Johnson and it will be interesting to see if any Tory rebels will back Corbyn in a bid to stop a no deal Brexit. Forecasters are suggesting that a no deal Brexit will cause the pound to crash, therefore if Boris is ousted this could help the pound, however if Boris takes the UK out of the EU without a deal this should help clients that are selling Australian dollars to buy pounds.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/AUD hovers above 1.77 as markets await confirmation of new UK Prime Minister, with Boris Johnson the favourite

After a quiet month or so regarding Brexit updates and GBP volatility, the markets are now gearing up for the announcement of the new Tory leader and Prime Minister with frontrunner Boris Johnson expected to win by a clear majority.

It’s likely that the announcement will be made tomorrow and as we’ve seen over the past weekend there could be Conservative Party members that will wish to step down from their positions if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister.

Sterling has gradually lost value since the beginning of May against the majority of currency pairs as the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased. Boris Johnson was one of the key figureheads of the pro Brexit movement and he’s suggested that he’s more open to the idea of a no-deal Brexit and leaving without a deal in place come October the 31st. This is why the Pound has come under pressure so those of our readers following the GBP to AUD exchange rate should be aware of this and the markets perception of Boris Johnson’s plans.

Data is light out of Australia this week, but I would expect all eyes to be on Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe’s speech in the early hours of Thursday morning. Any hints at future monetary policy from the RBA are likely to impact AUD exchange rates so it’s worth keeping an eye on this speech for that reason.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian dollar forecast – Will the Aussie weaken?

The Australian dollar has been stronger in recent weeks as investors back the currency, following a series of events which were originally predicted to weaken the currency. Firstly, we saw the trade wars of the last 2 years escalating to the point the Australian central bank were keen to cut interest rates. This saw pound to Australian dollar exchange rates rise to almost 1.88 on the interbank rate. We are currently 1.77, and part of the reason for this is a much stronger Australian currency.

The pound has also weakened following the continued uncertainty relating to the Brexit, which so far has seen the pound losing value as no-deal Brexit becomes more likely, as both Conservative leadership candidates look to keep a no-deal Brexit as an option. It has been said Boris is perhaps more keen on no-deal, with the possibility of him as leader opening a greater prospect of this market viewed, potentially pound sinking option.

This week will see increased news also on Australian interest rate prospects, with the latest Speech by RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) Assistant Governor Kent potentially offering up some news. The market is eagerly awaiting to see if the RBA will be looking to cut levels again in the future, the market has been getting mioxed signals with Chinese growth coming in at 27-year low, but still continuing world beating growth and creating demand for Australian exports.

GBPAUD levels could be influenced by the latest news on the Brexit from the new UK Prime Minister, who will be announced tomorrow morning, before being sworn in on Wednesday evening with a speech planned for around 5pm. Any clients with an interest in GBPAUD exchange rates have plenty of news to be conscious of for this week ahead, please do contact our team to learn more.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you soon, Jonathan Watson – jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar highest against the Pound since January 2019

Last night the Reserve Bank of Australia published their latest set of minutes. The focus was aimed at the labour market as well as monitoring economic growth.

Earlier this month the RBA cut interest rates to just 1% which is now the lowest rate in history for Australia.

The general feeling is that the RBA will keep interest rates on hold but are ready to cut further if necessary.

One problem that the central bank faces is that as interest rates are at record lows this leaves them little room to cut even further.

On Thursday of this week the latest set of Australian unemployment data is due to be released.

Depending on the announcement, this could cause some movement for GBPAUD exchange rates so if you’re in the process of transferring Australian Dollars pay close attention to what impact this may have on exchange rates.

Over the weekend Chinese GDP data was published. The growth figures showed 6.2% which was similar to what was forecast.

The data was the lowest level since 1992 so although it is falling it is still extremely high compared to other Western economies.

GBPAUD exchange rates are now trading at their lowest level since January 2019 creating some excellent opportunities to sell Australian Dollars to buy Pounds.

Early next week the UK leadership election should be concluded.

The likely winner is Boris Johnson but whilst there is still some uncertainty as to who will become the next Prime Minister the Pound is facing some uncertainty.

Therefore, once we have a new leader in place could this provide the Pound with a small boost against a number of different currencies including vs the Australian Dollar?

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank so please contact me directly for a free quote.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar remains below 1.80 for now, but could AUD come under pressure and reverse the trend?

The Pound to Australian Dollar rate remains below the 1.80 level, although judging from the trend so far today it looks like we could see this level tested again soon as the Australian Dollar comes under pressure.

In the early hours of this morning it was confirmed as expected that Business Confidence within the country is declining and this has added pressure on the Australian Dollar. The currency has also been coming under pressure due to expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the year, and now that the Central Bank of the US, The Federal Reserve Bank is expected to make less cuts than expected, we could see the the Aussie Dollar continue to soften. Previously AUD had been in high demand due to the high returns offered by banks down under but now that the base rate of interest has been cut to its record low of 1%, with further cuts expected AUD has lost some of its attractiveness especially against the US Dollar.

Sterling is likely to continue to be driven by the Conservative Leadership contest as anyone following UK politics will be aware. The Pound has been trading in a flat fashion recently and until the contest is over and we get an idea of the next steps for Brexit I expect this to continue.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar set to improve further against the Pound?

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates this week to its lowest level in history at 1%. As it was widely expected the markets priced in the rate cut so the value of the Australian Dollar did not feel too much of an impact.

The RBA also hinted that it may be prepared to cut interest rates even further. Since June the RBA has cut rates by 0.5% and so I think the RBA may be tempted to adopt a wait and see approach before changing monetary policy once again.

With the markets expecting interest rates to be cut to 0.75% the GBPAUD exchange rate did not move too much as there was little reason to sell the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe is due to be speaking on Tuesday and his speech should provide further clues as to when they may make further changes to policy.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of converting Australian Dollars then make sure you pay close attention to Lowe’s speech next week.

The Australian Dollar also improved during the course of this week owing to the latest trade surplus figures on Wednesday. The increase in the goods and services surplus came about owing to the increase in the export market in May.

The other good news came from the Australian housing market as building approvals increased. Although house prices have fallen in recent times down under, the increase in building approvals should be taken as a positive as it means there is an appetite for making money once again in the property market.

Whilst the UK continues to struggle with the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the leadership election I think we could see further improvements in the value of the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars and Sterling then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP to AUD rate expected to continue its decline this week

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has begun the week just north of the 1.80 benchmark level, which is around 3-cents lower than where the pair begun the week last week. There haven’t been many reasons for the Pound to climb in recent weeks and I think that until there is a new PM in place we could continue to see the political uncertainty continue to weigh on the Pound’s value which could push the GBP/AUD pair below the 1.80 level.

There will be a Reserve Bank of America meeting tomorrow and there are expectations of another interest rate cut, but as markets expect this amendment it’s already priced into the value of the Aussie Dollar. Despite this expected cut AUD is strengthening so I don’t expect to see the Aussie Dollar drop in value in it takes place, but I do expect to see the Aussie Dollar strengthen if the cut doesn’t take place.

Aside from this meeting the Aussie Dollar is being influenced at the moment but the US President’s trip to Asia, as not only has there been some positive developments between the US and China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, but we have also witnessed the first meeting on North Korean soil between a US President and North Korean leader and this has buoyed the markets. This kind of news is likely to further boost the Aussie Dollar, as it tends to gain in value in times of positive global updates due being a commodity currency.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – G20 summit and RBA Meeting

Could the US China Trade Wars be finishing soon?

We could be in for a very busy week for GBPAUD exchange rates owing to a number of different factors.

The G20 summit has now concluded and it appears as though talks between the US and China have been improving. Therefore, could this be a sign that the trade wars between the two world’s leading economies are coming to an end?

This should in theory help to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound as the Australian Dollar is often driven by an increase in global risk appetite.

Trump has claimed that he had an excellent meeting with Chinese leader Xi Xingping. He also went on to say that ‘we are back on track’ when questioned about the situation between the two nations.

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde has also said of the situation ‘While the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China is welcome, tariffs already implemented are holding back the global economy, and unresolved issues carry a great deal of uncertainty about the future.’

Another interest rate cut coming in Australia next week?

Also, next week the Reserve Bank of Australia are due to meet again. Having recently cut interest rates to just 1.25% could we see another interest rate coming on Tuesday?

According to some reports there is a 74% chance of an interest rate cut next week so if this happens we could see losses for GBPAUD exchange rates early next week. There is a huge amount of concern as the housing market in Australia is under a lot of pressure.

Therefore, pay close attention to next week’s RBA decision if you have a currency transfer to make involving Australian Dollars.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of offering you bank beating exchange rates.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar news

The Australian dollar had a strong Monday trading session, strengthening against its US and sterling counterparts. Investors are looking ahead to Presidents Donald Trump of the US and Xi Jinping of China’s meeting at the summit this week on the 28th and 29th. Donald Trump took to his twitter account last week to announce that talks had been positive and would resume this week. The Chinese economy has been slowing of late due to the ongoing trade war, and this is having a direct impact on the Australian dollar. If talks this week are positive, even though a deal is unlikely, the Australian dollar should benefit.

However the problem for the Australian dollar is that the markets are expecting another interest rate cut next month due to weak wages, employment and inflation data. Furthermore the RBA have even hinted to using other measures to stimulate the economy and I expect this would be quantitative easing (printing money). History tells us when a central bank cuts interest rates investors tend to shy away from that particular currency, therefore the Australian dollar is set to face a tough time in the upcoming weeks.

In regards to the pound vs Australian dollar, the ongoing embarrassment which is British politics seem to keep stealing the headlines and therefore driving the price of GBPAUD. Boris Johnson is still the front runner to become the next PM and therefore the chances of crashing out of the EU remain high. On the 22nd July we will find out if Mr Johnson is set to take over No10, and the weeks thereafter will be extremely important for the future price of the pound.

Since the UK voted out of the EU the pound to Australian dollar mid market rate dropped just below 1.60. My personal opinion is that we will see a snap General Election before a crash out Brexit, however if I am wrong I wouldn’t be surprised to the see pound fall further than 1.60 before the end of the year.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with your options and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Further interest rate cuts planned in Australia

Will Boris be the next Prime Minister?

The Tory leadership election is now down to the final two with Boris Johnson due to go head to head with Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has been the clear leader since the votes began and the strong likelihood is that he’ll become the new Tory leader when it is officially announced on 22nd July. Johnson won the ballot with 160 votes compared to Hunt with 77. Therefore, unless Johnson makes a calamity in the next month I cannot see why he won’t win.

This has given the Pound some support against a number of different currencies but we are still in a fairly uncertain period for the Pound as we still do not what will happen with Brexit.

Australian interest rates to be cut again in 2019

In the meantime turning the focus back towards what is happening in Australia and things are not going well down under.

Following the federal election which gave the Australian Dollar a brief period of respite the currency has started to weaken again.

The Australian Dollar is close to its lowest level against the US Dollar in history and has started to weaken once again vs the Pound.

Blackrock Inc has shorted the Australian Dollar as they expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to 0.5% from the current levels of 1.25%. Australia has been one of the benefactors of having a highly competitive interest rate so with further interest rate cuts expected I think this could have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the impact of the ongoing US-China trade wars which appear to have little signs of ending soon. As China is one of Australia’s leading trading partners any slowdown in the world’s second largest economy can often effect the value of the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe has claimed that the most recent interest rate cut was an attempt to cut unemployment levels as well as helping inflation but I agree with both Blackrock and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia that there are further interest rate cuts coming during 2019.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk