Tag Archives: RBA

Australian dollar news

The Australian dollar had a strong Monday trading session, strengthening against its US and sterling counterparts. Investors are looking ahead to Presidents Donald Trump of the US and Xi Jinping of China’s meeting at the summit this week on the 28th and 29th. Donald Trump took to his twitter account last week to announce that talks had been positive and would resume this week. The Chinese economy has been slowing of late due to the ongoing trade war, and this is having a direct impact on the Australian dollar. If talks this week are positive, even though a deal is unlikely, the Australian dollar should benefit.

However the problem for the Australian dollar is that the markets are expecting another interest rate cut next month due to weak wages, employment and inflation data. Furthermore the RBA have even hinted to using other measures to stimulate the economy and I expect this would be quantitative easing (printing money). History tells us when a central bank cuts interest rates investors tend to shy away from that particular currency, therefore the Australian dollar is set to face a tough time in the upcoming weeks.

In regards to the pound vs Australian dollar, the ongoing embarrassment which is British politics seem to keep stealing the headlines and therefore driving the price of GBPAUD. Boris Johnson is still the front runner to become the next PM and therefore the chances of crashing out of the EU remain high. On the 22nd July we will find out if Mr Johnson is set to take over No10, and the weeks thereafter will be extremely important for the future price of the pound.

Since the UK voted out of the EU the pound to Australian dollar mid market rate dropped just below 1.60. My personal opinion is that we will see a snap General Election before a crash out Brexit, however if I am wrong I wouldn’t be surprised to the see pound fall further than 1.60 before the end of the year.

If you are converting pounds into Australian dollars as you are emigrating or if you are leaving Australia to move to the UK and need to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the the timescales you are working to and I will email you with your options and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Further interest rate cuts planned in Australia

Will Boris be the next Prime Minister?

The Tory leadership election is now down to the final two with Boris Johnson due to go head to head with Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has been the clear leader since the votes began and the strong likelihood is that he’ll become the new Tory leader when it is officially announced on 22nd July. Johnson won the ballot with 160 votes compared to Hunt with 77. Therefore, unless Johnson makes a calamity in the next month I cannot see why he won’t win.

This has given the Pound some support against a number of different currencies but we are still in a fairly uncertain period for the Pound as we still do not what will happen with Brexit.

Australian interest rates to be cut again in 2019

In the meantime turning the focus back towards what is happening in Australia and things are not going well down under.

Following the federal election which gave the Australian Dollar a brief period of respite the currency has started to weaken again.

The Australian Dollar is close to its lowest level against the US Dollar in history and has started to weaken once again vs the Pound.

Blackrock Inc has shorted the Australian Dollar as they expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to 0.5% from the current levels of 1.25%. Australia has been one of the benefactors of having a highly competitive interest rate so with further interest rate cuts expected I think this could have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the impact of the ongoing US-China trade wars which appear to have little signs of ending soon. As China is one of Australia’s leading trading partners any slowdown in the world’s second largest economy can often effect the value of the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe has claimed that the most recent interest rate cut was an attempt to cut unemployment levels as well as helping inflation but I agree with both Blackrock and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia that there are further interest rate cuts coming during 2019.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has this week fought back against the Australian Dollar. With the RBA having cut interest rates the focus now appears to be on Australian unemployment. The figures showed a problem with the jobs market down under which signals that the Australian economy is under some real pressure at the moment.

The average house price has also been falling in Australia and this is beginning to weigh heavily on the value of the Australian Dollar.

Next week the focus will turn back to the Reserve Bank of Australia when the latest minutes are released.

This will provide an insight as to what the central bank are looking to do in the near future concerning monetary policy.

I think there are more interest rate cuts planned this year so if the RBA gives hints that there may be more coming in the near future I think we could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction.

Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth waiting until the middle of week to take advantage of any potential spikes in the market.

The other news affecting the rates is that of the UK’s leadership election. Currently Boris Johnson appears to be the front runner after winning the first round conclusively. If he manages to get into power this could potentially give the Pound a boost against the Australian Dollar as it will provide some certainty at least in the short term.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I am confident of being able to save you money when buying or selling Australian Dollars.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Australian dollar forecast: Will the RBA cut their interest rates again?

The Australian dollar is weaker this week, following the news that Australian employment data, whilst reasonably positive, was not inspiring enough to majorly turn the tide on the Australian currency. With the outlook on interest rates shifting following very poor GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which recently came in at a decade low, the Reserve Bank of Australia might well be looking to cut their interest rates once again ahead.

I am concerned about some of the more global issues that will influence the Australian dollar too, the prospect of the trade wars deteriorating ahead could be a major concern for the currency. It is likely that the Australian dollar will suffer as investors are fearful over the slowdown in the Chinese economy, this weekend’s G20 Summit will be key in determining what happens next.

If you are looking to buy or sell the Australian dollar, making some careful plans in advance is usually a good idea to try and help mitigate the uncertainty. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar will often rise and fall on the waning attitudes to global risk and trade. Donald Trump is a real wildcard here and his constant to and fro on the trade wars, is harming sentiment.

Next week, is a series of important economic releases with the Governor of the RBA, looking to make a speech plus the latest RBA Meeting Minutes. In providing information on what lies ahead, we will learn of the latest news and developments we might expect. I predict that Lowe will have to keep the door open to further cuts and this could see the Aussie weaker.

Looking at the general trend and trajectory on the trade wars, I think the Australian dollar could lose more ground ahead. Expectations are mixed over what to expect this weekend, any signs of agreement between Trump and China, could provide some shorter-term relief for the Aussie. However, I do feel that any improvement in sentiment will only be short-term, and there will continue to be a longer net negative concern from the trade wars which will affect the Australian dollar.

Thank you for reading my post and should you have a Australian currency transfers that you wish for assistance with, I would be most interested to hear from you and discuss strategy to assist with the best rates and timings.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar weakens as trade wars hit the headlines

The Australian Dollar can be impacted by global attitude to risk and news that Donald Trump and China are still locked in battle over their trade wars is not helping the value of the currency.

The G20 summit in Japan this weekend will be key for where this may head next, should the rift continue and both sides continue to throw more and more tariffs at each other then this could damage Australian Dollar exchange rates.

Chinese economic data has also had an impact on the Australian Dollar overnight, as inflation posted at a 15 month high last night. Poor economic data from China can have a negative impact on the value of the Australian Dollar due to the strong trading ties and the number of exports from Australia to China. Should China start to struggle then you can tend to see a ripple effect onto the Australian economy so the markets tend to move in advance of this. Chinese Retail Sales figures are released on Friday so this will be one to watch.

In terms of Australian data, we have a few key releases this week with unemployment figures out tomorrow and investors and speculators alike will also be looking out for any hints or comments from members of the RBA as to their plans for what to do next with interest rates.

There are growing expectations that we may see an interest rate cut from the RBA in the near future, and this has the potential to result in the Australian Dollar losing a little ground.

My personal view is that I feel that the Australian Dollar may weaken a little in the coming weeks due to the various points above, so if you have Australian Dollars to buy then it may be one to watch very closely, if you have Australian Dollars to sell then it may be tempting to start considering making a move on soon. Of course with all the worldwide politics going on the market and opinions can change in an instant so it is key if you are in the position where you have an exchange to carry out that you have a proactive broker on your side, with various options on offer.

If you have a transaction to carry out and you would like our assistance then feel free to get in touch with me directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to help you.

Will the RBA cut interest rates and the impact on the Pound vs the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has really been struggling against the Australian Dollar in recent weeks owing to the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK.

The Pound is now trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar in a few weeks and I think we could see further losses ahead for Sterling exchange rates.

Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again meet to decide the future of monetary policy down under.

With the Australian economy coming under more and more pressure recently there is a strong likelihood that we’ll see a cut in interest rates on Tuesday morning.

As this is widely anticipated it may not have the impact on exchange rates that you may think so if you’re banking on a big movement for GBPAUD exchange rates it may not happen.

The main thing to look out for will be the statement from the RBA as if they hint that there are more interest rate cuts planned for the future then this could weaken the Australian Dollar so make sure you pay close attention to the announcement.

Indeed, some analysts think that the RBA should cut interest rates by 0.5% but I think that would be too aggressive for the time being.

We also have the release of Australian retail sales due out on Tuesday morning. Retail sales are a good indicator as to the health of an economy so any further signs of a slowdown will provide the RBA with further justification to cut interest rates.

Then on Wednesday we have another big data release for Australia with the latest GDP data for the first quarter. The expectations are for growth of 2.5% which would be an improvement from the previous quarter of 2.3% for year on year so we could see some volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates during the middle part of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I can also help you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian 

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound Sterling close to 3 year highs against the Australian Dollar

The Pound is now trading at close to its best level to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling since June 2016 when the Brexit vote took place.

The Pound has increased in value against the Australian Dollar at the end of the week as the cross party talks between the Labour party and the Tories appear to be making progress.

Following the dismal local election results earlier in the week senior Tory members are urging the party to take things further and deliver Brexit.

Indeed, Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that the public wanted ‘to see the issue of Brexit resolved.’

With Theresa May insisting that the cross-party talks are concluded by next week this could see Brexit get closer to being delivered than some may expect.

I am still doubtful that Brexit will take place as even if the talks between the two parties improve then they will still have to get it through the House of Commons who have so far shown little interest in approving the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

Turning the focus back towards the Australian Dollar I think we could potentially see the Pound hit 1.90 and above this month as there are a number of major events taking place during May.

We start on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting to announce their latest interest rate decision. The rumours have been increasing recently that the RBA may be looking to cut interest rates and even if a rate cut does not take place on Tuesday I think that the RBA may adopt a relatively dovish tone and suggest that they are gearing up to cut rates.

One of the only reasons why I think an interest rate cut may not happen next week is that Australia is due to go to the polls this month on 18th May.

Generally speaking when an election takes place this often results in uncertainty for the currency involved and this is why I think we could see the Pound increasing against the Australian Dollar in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank and have a currency transfer to make involving Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of low inflation and the election

The Pound has had a relatively strong week against the Australian Dollar after we saw inflation figures in Australia drop compared to the expectation.

Figures were predicted to come out at 1.8% but they fell to 1.5% and this is likely to add further pressure to the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates sooner than they may have previously considered.

The RBA are under pressure to look at cutting interest rates in an attempt to help the ailing property market as well as trying to control falling inflation so this week’s data is likely to bring an interest rate cut forward and this could happen as early as 7th May when the RBA holds its next monetary policy meeting.

The general expectation for interest rates in Australia is for two cuts this year bringing interest rates to their lowest level on record at just 1%.

However, as Australia goes to the polls next month to vote in the next election on 18th May the RBA may just hold fire from changing monetary policy as to change things now could cause a lot of volatility for the markets if the central bank intervenes too soon.

Current Prime Minister Scott Morrison has tried to defend his economic record during his tenure but with GDP figures slowing down during the last year he is facing questions as to how he can turn the economy round under his stewardship.

As we move into next week the key data release of the week could be Thursday’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. As China is such a huge trading partner with Australia this can often have a large bearing on the value of GBPAUD exchange rates so make sure you’re well prepared for what could be a busy end to the week.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident not only of being able to save you money when exchanging Australian Dollars but also to provide you with further information as to how the market is moving.

For a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

AUD Forecast – RBA Keep Interest Rates on Hold at Record lows as GBP Finds Support Overnight (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/AUD rates have spiked back above 1.84 overnight, as the Pound continued its recovery following last week’s losses.

Sterling was under considerable pressure following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure, to once again get Parliamentary approval for her Brexit deal. This was the third time she has failed to gain the necessary support from MP’s and investors reacted to this by selling off their GBP positions, causing a sharp dip in value for the Pound.

This downturn inadvertently boosted the value of the AUD, which has had its own problems recently. The AUD saw its value increase by over four cents against the Pound, hitting 1.8290 at the high.

At this stage it seemed as though GBP/AUD exchange rates could be heading back towards 1.80, with the markets seemingly losing faith in the UK’s ability to find some common ground over Brexit, with MP’s unable to agree upon the best way forward in regards to a Brexit deal with the EU.

With further twists likely in this ongoing saga, those clients holding GBP may look at this week’s upturn as an opportunity, with the uncertainty over the UK’s final Brexit position likely to hamper any significant upturns for Sterling.

Looking at the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met last night and as anticipated kept interest rate son hold at the current record lows of 1.5%.

Like other commodity based currencies, the AUD has struggled to impose itself of late, with a slowdown in global trade causing investors to shy away from riskier assets such as the AUD. With the Chinese economy also showing signs of a longer-term slowdown, due for the most part to the on-going trade stand-off with the US, the outlook for the Australian economy remains dovish.

If you have an upcoming GBP or AUD currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over nineteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Australian dollar weaken this week?

The Australian dollar exchange rate has been trending lower in 2019 on the increased expectation that we will in the future see the RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia cut their base interest rate. Numerous commentators have for now many months been commenting that we could soon see the RBA forced to take action against numerous global and domestic factors.

In Australia there has been a growing concern over Inflation levels which the RBA had targetted to see at 2-3% but has been averaging around 1.5%. To boost Inflation levels which are now at close to 10 year lows, the RBA might need to cut interest rates to help provide some stimulus to the economy.

Cutting interest rates by a central bank can do various things which can help an economy to grow. Firstly, it can make the currency cheaper to buy which can help the country to increase exports, thereby improving the economy. Secondly, it makes loans and borrowing less costly which can encourage business and consumers to spend more, thereby increasing economic activity.

The currency becomes less valuable from the cutting of interest rates in a similar fashion to the way a lower or higher rate of interest makes a particular savings account more or less attractive.

Interest rates are of importance on the Australian dollar and are a major factor in determining the relative strength or weakness of the currency. There is a growing expectation that we could in the future see the RBA cut rates which will see the currency weaker.

It is not just the domestic issues of a sluggish economy, it is also the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the more global problems and concerns which are relating to the economic outlook on global trade.

A key example is the ongoing Trade Wars and spat between China and also the US, this has seen global trade drop and with China being such a key partner to Australia, could continue to be a major factor.

With such global pressures on trade continuing, as evidenced by the United States Federal Reserve stating they will not be raising interest rates as soon as many thought earlier this year, the Australian dollar might continue to suffer from weakness, as it responds to continuing and ever-changing global shifts.