Tag Archives: reserve bank of australia

GBPAUD struggles to maintain recent form

The GBPAUD exchange rate has slipped lower from the highs of 1.69 and 1.70 fairly recently as investor concerns over the outlook for the UK to raise interest rates increase. Yesterday was the latest Inflation data for the UK and today is Unemployment data where we will get the latest news on Wage Inflation. A big driver on GBPAUD rates this week is how the market reacts to the prospect of the UK raising interest rates which now looks less likely.

Overall the Australian dollar has been stronger against sterling after investors retain an interest in the higher yielding Australian dollar which represents a very good opportunity to earn a higher yield on their investments. The big news on the Australian dollar will be the Unemployment data which is released tomorrow evening and could see the Aussie even stronger against the pound.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Australian dollar then making some plans in advance is key to understanding the current trends and themes in the market. With there being a high chance the pound will lose further value GBPAUD rates could be well worth considering if you have to buy Australian dollars with pounds.

We are currently at some of the better rates of this year, the worst deals were in the 1.50’s so with 1.70 only a couple of cents away and the forecast in my opinion pointing downwards say to the mid or lower 1.60’s, I think if you are buying Australian dollars moving sooner would be the best course of action.

For AUD sellers buying pounds the market remains very favourable so if you have a transfer to consider buying or selling please don’t hesitate to get in touch and discuss further the market and how we can help you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information.

Further falls for the Australian dollar (Dayle Littlejohn)

Many economists globally are expecting the Australian dollar to come under further pressure for the rest of the year as the US begin to reverse the bad run seen over the last 6 months. It’s been widely publicized that the Federal Reserve are likely to raise interest rates in December. If this materializes the overpriced Australian dollar is likely to devalue as currency speculators move out of the risky commodity currency and into the safe haven US dollar for higher returns on their investments.

In regards to GBPAUD exchange rates the pound has been losing momentum against the Australian dollar over the last 5 trading days as yearly GDP numbers fell to 1.5% from 1.7%, mortgage approvals were down by 3,000, markit manufacturing fell from 56.9 to 55.9 and PMI construction fell from 51.1 to 48.1. However the Bank of England are suggesting an interest rate hike could occur as early as next month which could provide further opportunity for Austrian dollar buyers.

This evening Australia are set to release retail sales numbers, trade balance, including import and export numbers and RBA assistant Governor Debelle’s speech. For more information on how these data releases impacted the market feel free to drop me an email and I will respond tomorrow morning.

If you need to buy or sell Australian dollars and would like to save as much money as possible, feel free to email me with your requirements and I will respond with the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. As a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. In addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. This will help you to make informed and educated decisions.

 

 

Back to normal on GBPAUD exchanges!

After briefly rising above 1.70 on a strengthening pound and a weaker Aussie, GBPAUD is currently back into the 1.68’s. This is largely a revert to the more normal themes on the currency pair with sterling ebbing lower and the Aussie stronger. The pound is weaker because UK economic data has failed to live up to the high expectations, the Australian dollar stronger because the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept rates on hold and were not dovish in their commentary over when rates might rise in Australia.

I say back to normal because this is the more usual behaviour the pair has displayed and that has driven GBPAUD rates. We have said many times that for any clients buying Australian dollars with pounds will more than likely end up disappointed from holding on too long since the pound seems bound to remain on the weaker side.

Some investors had also been laying bets the RBA would raise interest rates next year, the removal of these expectations in commentary fro the RBA had seen the Aussie weaker helping with the moves over 1.70 recently. However despite the change in sentiment, the Australian dollar with a interest rate of 1.5% remains one of the most attractive currencies to hold from the perspective of how much yield or return it will give investors. This helps keep the Australian dollar strong and should serve as a reminder to any clients hoping GBPAUD would quickly go to 1.80 or higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global events also must be factored in here, the Australian dollar was weaker on concerns over North Korea too but these tensions have cooled. Expectations on when the US will raise interest rates also play a part and could see the Aussie weaker if the US raise interest rates in December although generally speaking the US has been disappointing investors with the pace of hikes and the US dollar is much softer.

Friday is the big day this week with US Non-Farm Payroll data which will have a bearing on the Aussie as investors switch positions around according to their views on the US and global economy.

If you have a transfer pending buying or selling Australian dollars why not get in touch and see if we can help? I am very confident I can give you some insight into the latest trends plus offer a rate which will save you money over other options. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, you have nothing to lose from sending an email.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any transfers.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD continue to rise this month?

The pound made considerable gains against the Australian dollar throughout September due to the Bank of England’s stance surrounding future interest rates and the dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that an interest rate hike could occur as early as November and currency speculators have purchased the pound in anticipation.

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australian Philip Lowe confirmed that an interest rate hike anytime soon is unlikely as they do not want to see household debt rise further.

In other news iron ore prices in Austrian have been taking a tumble in recent weeks. Iron ore is Australia’s largest export and when iron ore prices fall this tends to mean the Austrian dollar follows suit. If iron ore continues to decline I expect buying Austrian dollars will become cheaper in the upcoming weeks.

Another factor that will have a major impact on GBPAUD exchange rates is Brexit developments. Currently Brexit negotiations have stalled once again as UK and EU negotiations cannot come to an agreement in regard to the divorce settlement or EU citizens rights once the UK depart the EU. This could be a story that has a positive or negative impact on the pound.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollar in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound makes gains vs the Australian Dollar on interest rate hike rumours (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some solid gains during the last fortnight vs the Australian Dollar creating some better opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

The Pound has gained owing to the suggestion that the Bank of England are making plans for a potential interest rate hike in November. It is not just against the Australian Dollar but also against a whole host of other major currencies in Sterling’s favour.

We have broken through 1.70 on the Interbank level on a number of occasions and it appears as though there is a level of support just underneath this trading level.

The next potential catalyst for GBPAUD exchange rate movement is likely to come on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to announce their latest monetary policy.

I don’t think we’ll see any movement in interest rates next week in Australia but with the US likely to raise rates before the end of the year as well as the UK potentially doing something in a few weeks there is a chance that we’ll see an interest rate hike in Australia next year.

In the meantime I expect to see the Pound continue to challenge the current 1.71 range and possibly break through as we go into next month.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

A dramatic fall for the Australian dollar

Towards the end of last week the Australian dollar lost value against all of the major currencies due to RBA governor Philip Lowe announcing that it was unlikely the RBA would raise interest rates anytime soon.

Within my last article I suggested this would be the case, as the Governor in recent months has made it clear if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen in value, this could have a negative impact on GDP and the amount of jobs that are created.

The Australian dollar also took a tumble due to a further fall in the commodity iron ore. Iron ore is Australia’s largest goods export and over the last six trading sessions is down 13.7%. There is a direct correlation with iron ore and Australian dollar exchange rates. When iron falls exchange rates fall when iron rises exchange rates rise.

However the Australian dollar didn’t devalue much against sterling this week as Theresa May’s lack lustre speech in Florence Friday left the currency markets wanting more and therefore a sell off of sterling occurred. The PM gave no indication to how much the UK would pay the EU when the UK departs and this is what the market was anticipating.

It’s a quiet week for Australian economic data releases, the only release to look out for is Private sector credit Friday morning however this isn’t normally a big market mover. For people that are buying or selling Australian dollars this week should also analyse the other currency that you are converting.

If you are making a currency conversion in the upcoming weeks or months, I would recommend emailing me with the currency pair you are converting (AUDUSD, AUDEUR, AUDGBP) the reason for your transfer (business transaction, property purchase) and the timescales you are working to and I will respond to your email with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

Dayle Littlejohn

 

 

Will the GBPAUD rise back to 1.70?

The pound has slipped below the 1.70 mark we briefly touched as investors initial excitement at the prospect of a UK interest rate hike begins to fade. The pound soared last week breaking the 1.70 mark but this was not sustainable, the Australian dollar has been much weaker too but we have seen it regain some strength back too. With almost 5 cents improvements from the worst rates in a very short space of time there are some very good arguments for buying Australian dollars with pounds at present, however there is more important news this week that could influence the rates.

A more optimistic tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Minutes released this week also predicted two hikes in 2018 and talked of the recent highs in Iron Ore prices, all positive news that has helped the Aussie. This is all in contrast to last week when a board member Harper stated he felt that there was little the RBA could do and that the main driver on the AUD was movements on the US dollar.

Big news this week will be the US Federal Reserve Interest rate decision this evening. There is a very strong relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar, investors will essentially look to capitalise on the stronger interest rates in Australia but with the US also on a path to raising their own interest rates we could easily see big swings.

Governor Philip Lowe is also due to speak tomorrow and his comments will be watched closely for signs of how he views the possibility of raising interest rates. Friday we have a very important speech from Theresa May in Florence on Brexit which could really see the pound stronger if as expected she indicates a commitment to paying some form of Brexit bill.

GBPAUD is much improved and may well rise higher but it would be a shame for Aussie buyers to miss out on the current much higher rates. If you have a transfer to make and wish to get some extra information to help make a decision on an exchange please contact me Jonathan watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBPAUD reaches 8 week high

The pound has been on the charge of late and GBPAUD exchange rates have reached an 8 week high!

This week UK inflation numbers rose to 2.9% which promoted the Bank of England to release a hawkish statement after the interest rate decision.  Members of the monetary policy committee hinted that an interest rate hike could occur in the upcoming months if inflation continues to rise.

Personally I believe the Bank of England have artifically strengthen sterling in a bid to curb the worrying inflation levels and an interest rate hike this year is extremely unlikely. Nevertheless the Bank of England have provided a window of opportunity for Australian dollar buyers.

This week the Reserve Bank of Australia are set to release their latest minutes Tuesday morning. I don’t expect the minutes to provide any further insight to interest rate decision moving forward as the Governor will not want the Australian dollar strengthening any further in the upcoming months due to speculation.

Later in the week UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to deliver a speech in Florence outlining life after Brexit. EU Parliament negotiator Guy Verhofstadt has exclaimed the UK Prime Minister will make an “important intervention” and if this is the case GBPAUD could rise or fall dramatically. The problem clients have that are converting GBPAUD is trying to predict Theresa May is impossible.

If you are trading GBPAUD in the upcoming weeks, months or years and want to save money, feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will GBPAUD fall below 1.60?

The pound might well easily fall below 1.60 in the future as global conditions continue to favour the current trends we are witnessing on the currency pairing. Expectations for the pound remain confined to the uncertainty over future direction on the Brexit which does not look like being resolved any time soon. If you look at the timelines we have until 2019 for a deal to be arranged for the UK. Of course there is lots to sort out but it is more than likely the negotiations will go down to the wire.

Next week is a very important one for Australia with the latest Unemployment data released. This data has so far been a key indicator as to the strength of the Australian economy and therefore the Australian dollar. If you need to buy Australian dollars this release next week will be the key point of information to be focusing on.

Markets will move for a whole range of reasons, movement on the AUD is further complicated by its relations to international events which influence global attitudes to risk. Generally speaking markets are volatile with a number of key developments with North Korea and the United States. Such concerns can weigh on the Australian dollar which may see some big unexpected swings.

Overall the weakness of sterling seems like it will continue to drag the pair down, the improving and consistent economic picture in Australia should help this trend further. Rates below 1.60 seem a very real possibility in the coming weeks and months. There does remain however the very real possibility events like North Korea shake markets and we see the Aussie suffer.

If you have a transfer to make in the future please speak to us today to learn of the latest news and events in the future that could move your rates. Please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Demand for the Australian dollar

In recent years the Australian dollar has seemed to follow trend with the US dollar. In times of uncertainty currency traders would flock to the US dollar due to its safe haven status and leave commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. With tensions rising on the Korean Peninsula you would expect the Australian dollar to be losing ground against the major currencies as traders lose appetite however this is far from truth.

A recent report last week from ANZ showed speculative trading hitting the highest levels since 2013, just showing that flocking to the US dollar isn’t the game plan for many traders like years gone by. With the US dollar continue to devalue I expect the Euro and Australian dollar to continue to rise therefore clients holding onto Australian dollars could continue to benefit in the weeks to come.

Earlier in the week Australian dollar interest rates were held at 1.5%, which is another reason for speculators choosing the Australian dollar. If you look globally 1.5% is one of the highest interest rates on offer. The likes of the UK sit at 0.25% and the Eurozone at 0%.

Data releases to look out for moving forward are GDP numbers Wednesday morning, Retail sales Thursday morning and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech Friday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mr Lowe try and talk down the Aussie as exchange rates continue to run at worrying high levels, levels that the Governor has already eluded to as dangerous for the Australian economy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.