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Bank of England to influence GBPAUD exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

Today the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision and this event has the potential to have an impact on GBPAUD exchange rates. At the beginning of the year the Bank of England were hinting that an interest rate hike was imminent and due to a poor run of UK economic data interest rates were kept on hold and the pound lost value against the Australian dollar.

Today looks like we will receive similar commentary as the latest Q2 growth figures were a mixed bag, wage growth construction output and industrial production all missed the consensus. Arguable the only recent economic data release that exceeded expectation were the retail sales numbers.

My personal opinion is that the vote will be split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold, which will be a slight non event. However Governor Mark Carney will talk down the chances of a rate hike in the foreseeable future due to the recent flurry of economic data, Brexit negotiations and trade wars. Arguably there is a good chance that buying Australian dollars with pounds could come more expensive throughout the day.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the upcoming weeks, months or years feel free to email me with the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and the timescales you are working to and I will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. If I haven’t covered your currency pair please outline the pair you are converting. 

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Important news to move Australian dollar exchange rates!

The Australian dollar has been a stronger contender on exchange rates lately as investors back the Australian dollar to potentially improve in the future. This is all owing to the improved expectations we have of late that the Chinese economy will improve further and the global economy is not as badly affected by the Trade Wars.

The Trade Wars and potential future trading activity of the global economy is a big driver on Australian dollar exchange rates, if you are looking for improvements for buying or selling the Australian dollar, keeping abreast of the latest developments is key to maximising your overall position. Australian unemployment data next week could be a big driver as attitudes to the economy and the labour market are vital to shifts in the likelihood of the RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) to raise interest rates in the future.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then understanding the market and all of your options in advance is highly recommended to help minimise the inherent uncertainty of just where levels could potentially go. On GBPAUD exchange rates we could easily see the rate rise to 1.80 if better UK news and worse information on the Aussie comes into play.

Next week is also crucial as we have the latest US interest rate decision where the market is anticipating further information from the US Federal Reserve on interest rate expectations. This could see the US dollar rise which would weaken the Aussie, their relationship is quite closely linked since both now have similar interest rates but investors might prefer to hold the US dollar as it is seen as a more stable and reliable currency.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future, understanding the market and all of your options in advance is key, for more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Australian Dollar predicted to rise as global economy picks up

The Australian Dollar has been strengthening in recent weeks, with the GBP to AUD exchange rate being a good example of how much AUD has strengthened after the rate has dropped from around 1.85 to around 1.75 over the last few months.

A number of analysts have begun to adopt a hawkish outlook for the Aussie Dollar moving forward, and the HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand is the most recent key figure to share this view. His name is Paul Bloxham and he’s cited the largest increase in 6 years for the counties GDP as a key indicator as to the health of the economy.

A global pick up will benefit the Aussie Dollar due to its export driven economy, but I also think its important that our readers are aware of the importance of the countries services sector as its now more important to Australia than its mining sector.

Next week on Thursday there will be a number of key releases out of Australia, mostly covering the health of the countries employment sector. If you would like to plan around this event do feel free to register your interest with me.

The economy is likely to remain resilient in the face of trade wars breaking out, due to its close trading relationship with China. One downside though is that the RBA doesn’t plan on hiking interest rates until next year, meaning that the currency may lose some of its competitive edge.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Wage growth puts further pressure on the RBA

This week Australia have released the latest quarterly wage growth numbers and Australian dollar sellers have been left disappointing. The consensus was for wages to have grown by 0.6%, however in fact wages had grown by 0.5% for the quarter. The poor wage growth numbers are keeping inflation beneath the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target which is directly having an impact on Australian dollar exchagne rates.

If wage growth numbers continue to dwindle along and inflation remains below the RBA target, policy makers will have no choice but to leave interest rates on hold at record lows and this is what many leading forecasters are predicting, which is no surprise. Speculators move their assets chasing higher returns of interest and with the US marching ahead and potentially looking to raise interest rate another couple of times this year investment is going to leave Australian shores and land in the US.

In regards to GBPAUD exchange rates the pound has been performing worse than the Australian dollar as exchange rates have dropped below 1.80. UK economic data has disappointing which has stopped the Bank of England from raising interest rates and the Brexit negotiations continue to weigh on the pounds value. Today UK Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that the UK will release a whitepaper before the June summit which will outline the UK’s full position.

When the whitepaper is released this could have a clear indication about the future path of the UK and therefore GBPAUD exchange rates. If you are converting GBPAUD within the next 3 months this event should be monitored closely. 

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with the currency pair you are converting, your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect from the Australian dollar ahead?

The Australian dollar has been stronger as heightened concerns the US may not raise interest rates as quickly as expected triggered a rise in the value of the AUD. Investors have been buying up the US dollar in anticipation of a higher interest rate which would make the currency more attractive to hold, however, with the Australian dollar holding attraction with its higher interest rate, it remains strong.

The next big news for the Australian dollar will be next week with the latest RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes which will give us the latest news from the RBA’s meeting last week. The expectation is for the RBA to be possibly looking to raise interest rates longer term, some commentators believe this could be as soon as the end of the year but personally, I do not expect anything too soon.

Investors are bracing themselves for the longer-term raise from the RBA which has helped to fuel the recent strength of the Australian dollar, overall impressions are for the currency to avoid some of the more familiar problems where it has dramatically weakened. A key driver of this volatility had been the move from the latest decision so, the next meeting will be crucial to get an idea of where Australian dollar will be headed next.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Australian dollars we can help with the planning and management of any deals with a view to securing the latest information and news when required. For more information please feel free to contatc me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for getting in touch and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

 

Factors impacting GBPAUD exchange rates up until the end of the week

Overnight China are set to release a few data releases which clients involved with an Australian dollar exchange short term, should keep a close eye on. Consumer Price Index monthly figures are set to show -0.1%, however 1% up from last month and yearly inflation is set to fall to 1.9% from 2.1%. If the numbers meet the expectation you would expect to see a slight decline for the Australian dollar.

Later tomorrow morning the UK’s interest rate decision will take centre stage, and this decision has received a fair amount of media attention. 2-3 weeks ago forecasters were predicting that there was a 85% chance of a hike and now forecasters are suggesting a 20% chance due to the slowdown in the UK economy. GDP, inflation and retails sales all dropped last month.

My personal opinion is that the pound could come under pressure after the release therefore I would purchase Australian dollars before the event and sell after.

To finish the week Australian Home Loans is set to be released. With it being well documented that there has been a slow down in the major cities, home loads is set to be released at 0.1%. A high reading is seen as positive as it means investor confidence is high and therefore properties are being purchased. 0.1% is 0.3% higher than last months figure, nevertheless it wont be seen as positive therefore I would expect this to be a non event.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your requirements. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPAUD fall below 1.80?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate could now enter a very volatile period as we get key news from both central banks in the Eurozone, United States, Australia and also the UK! This should see movement on exchange rates as the market digests any shifts or changes in monetary policy and investors shift funds around to take stock of the changes.

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has been rising which has seen the GBPAUD level touch some of the best rates since the Referendum 2016, this is presenting an excellent opportunity to buy the Aussie with pounds which may not last. Important economic data for the UK is tomorrow relating to GDP but what will more than likely see extensive volatility on the Aussie is global attitudes to risk sentiment.

The Australian dollar is very sensitive to global sentiments on interest rates and where the AUD had previously found itself as a very strong currency owing to its higher interest rates, the currency has lost value as other central banks become more positive about raising and indeed, do raise their interest rates.

The US interest rate is now higher than the Australian one and this has made the Australian dollar lose value against the US dollar as the US dollar becomes more attractive to hold. If you have any currency transfer buying Australian dollar the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate decision next week could also be a big market mover.

If you are looking to by or sell Australian dollars and wish for some insight as to what might happen in the future with any currency transfers that you will be looking to make, please feel free to speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing me on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Interest rate hikes look extremely unlikely

For the first quarter of 2018 Australian core inflation hit 1.9% and headline inflation was 0.4% down 0.6% from the final quarter of 2017. The quarterly inflation numbers support the Reserve Bank of Australia’ stance to keep interest rates on hold for the time being. Many economists are suggesting a hike for the RBA will not materalise until the summer of 2019 and I have to agree which is a problem for Australian dollar sellers.

An interest rate hike has the potential to collapse the property market as many Australian’s have 0% mortgages and others have properties that they struggle to pay for now due to property prices rising over the years. My personal opinion is that average earnings need to rise and inflation would have to become out of control before a hike materialises.

As it is Anzac day tomorrow there are no data releases to look out for tomorrow. The next batch of releases to look out for are import and export price index numbers and both are set to show a steep decline. If this is the case you would expect the Australian dollar to come under pressure further.

In regards to GBPAUD exchange rates, with exchange rates now remaining buoyant above 1.80, the golden question is what is next? UK MPs are set to meet in the house of commons on Thursday to discuss the customs union. With MPs split whether to leave and remain and the PM stating there is no choice the UK has to leave this story could put pressure on the pound.

If you are trading Australian dollars this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage, I would strongly recommend you compare rates as I am confident I will be able to offer you additional savings with your transfer. All you need to do is email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Could the Pound continue its recent strong run vs the Australian Dollar?

Although the Pound dipped yesterday vs the Australian Dollar after UK inflation came out slightly lower than expected the Pound has risen once against vs the AUD during today’s trading session.

UK inflation is a key factor in determining when the Bank of England may look at raising interest rates and the chances are very high that a rate hike may occur when the central bank meet again on 10th May.

Indeed, according to some reports the chances are as high as 85% of an interest rate hike.

The Pound has made a lot of gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few months and although we saw a brief fall earlier this week I think the negative movement will be relatively short lived.

With the US having increased rates recently the US interest rates now have a higher yield than having money in Australia and this is one of the reasons why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently particularly vs the Pound.

On Tuesday, Australia releases its latest inflation data and with the RBA having announced recently that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future the data release could cause a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates.

On Wednesday Australia celebrates ANZAC day so expect the markets to remain quite midweek so if you’re happy with rates are on Wednesday that may be the day to make your move.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Could GBPAUD continue towards 1.90?

Since the start of the year GBPAUD exchange rates have improved by over 10 cents, and clients converting £200,000 into Australian dollars are now achieving an additional 25,ooo dollars. 

The Australian dollar continues to struggle on due to the over inflated housing market which is a reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. Furthermore ‘trade wars’ between the US and China (Australia main trading partner), is causing investors to move away from risky commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The pound has had a good run of late due to the UK securing a transitional deal and the Bank of England hinting that an interest rate hike is likely for June. Today the UK will release their latest average earnings numbers and on Thursday their latest inflation numbers. The consensus is for average earnings to outpace inflation for the first time in many years.

If this is the case, an interest rate hike looks almost certain and therefore I expect the pound may rise slightly against the Australian dollar. However I expect that the market has already priced in the interest rate hike in May, therefore I don’t see the pound making substantial gains.

Looking further ahead I don’t believe it’s all smiles for Australian dollar buyers. The most important element of Brexit is to be decided which is the trade talks. Over the last 18 months we have seen the pound come under pressure when a fresh round of Brexit talks begin. If you need to purchase Australian dollars short to medium term, this week could provide the best opportunity for some time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.