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Could the Pound continue its recent strong run vs the Australian Dollar?

Although the Pound dipped yesterday vs the Australian Dollar after UK inflation came out slightly lower than expected the Pound has risen once against vs the AUD during today’s trading session.

UK inflation is a key factor in determining when the Bank of England may look at raising interest rates and the chances are very high that a rate hike may occur when the central bank meet again on 10th May.

Indeed, according to some reports the chances are as high as 85% of an interest rate hike.

The Pound has made a lot of gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few months and although we saw a brief fall earlier this week I think the negative movement will be relatively short lived.

With the US having increased rates recently the US interest rates now have a higher yield than having money in Australia and this is one of the reasons why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently particularly vs the Pound.

On Tuesday, Australia releases its latest inflation data and with the RBA having announced recently that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future the data release could cause a lot of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates.

On Wednesday Australia celebrates ANZAC day so expect the markets to remain quite midweek so if you’re happy with rates are on Wednesday that may be the day to make your move.

If you would like more information about buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money so feel free to send me an email directly with an outline of your particular requirement.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Could GBPAUD continue towards 1.90?

Since the start of the year GBPAUD exchange rates have improved by over 10 cents, and clients converting £200,000 into Australian dollars are now achieving an additional 25,ooo dollars. 

The Australian dollar continues to struggle on due to the over inflated housing market which is a reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. Furthermore ‘trade wars’ between the US and China (Australia main trading partner), is causing investors to move away from risky commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.

The pound has had a good run of late due to the UK securing a transitional deal and the Bank of England hinting that an interest rate hike is likely for June. Today the UK will release their latest average earnings numbers and on Thursday their latest inflation numbers. The consensus is for average earnings to outpace inflation for the first time in many years.

If this is the case, an interest rate hike looks almost certain and therefore I expect the pound may rise slightly against the Australian dollar. However I expect that the market has already priced in the interest rate hike in May, therefore I don’t see the pound making substantial gains.

Looking further ahead I don’t believe it’s all smiles for Australian dollar buyers. The most important element of Brexit is to be decided which is the trade talks. Over the last 18 months we have seen the pound come under pressure when a fresh round of Brexit talks begin. If you need to purchase Australian dollars short to medium term, this week could provide the best opportunity for some time to come.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Westpac issues warning for Australian dollar sellers (Dayle Littlejohn)

In a recent report by Westpac have warned their Australian clients that further falls could be on the horizon for the Australian dollar. Commodity prices including iron ore and coaking coal (used for making steel) have dropped 15-20% since February and this trend could continue if there is a slowdown in china like many forecasters are predicting. One of the reasons why people believe there will be a slowdown is because China appear to be entering a trade war with the US.

In other news Governor  of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe will address the public Wednesday morning and give another overview of how the Australian economy is performing. The recent commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia is that interest rates will remain on hold for the time being. This is another reason why forecasters are suggesting the Australian dollar could lose further value as carry traders sell off their positions and look to purchase US dollars due to the higher returns now on offer.

When buying or selling Australian dollars it’s important to analyse the other currency that you will be converting as it can have an impact on the exchange rate you receive. The key data releases to look out for around the globe are ECB Mario Draghi’s speech, US Consumer Price Index, US FOMC minutes all Wednesday afternoon and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s speech Thursday afternoon.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Aussie Dollar boosted after positive Retail Sales data, where to next for AUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has received a boost overnight after some positive economic data.

After disappointing in recent months Australian Retail Sales down under have rebounded and impressed during February. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% during the month after slumping in January and December.

Improving sales along with inflation are increasing the chances of a rate hike from the RBA, up from its record lows which is where interest rates currently sit.

The Pound has reached new annual highs against the Aussie Dollar in recent weeks after the Brexit transitional agreement has been arranged between the UK-EU negotiators. This positive news for the UK benefited the Pound along with increasing likelihood of a rate hike in May.

Now that the US Dollar offers a higher return than the Aussie Dollar, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie Dollar lose value as investors move deposits from AUD into the USD. Before the recent rate hikes from the FED Reserve bank in the US AUD had offered one of the highest returns in the developed world, but now that AUD is losing this competitive edge we’re seeing the currency lose value.

Early tomorrow morning there will be the release of Australian Import and Export data along with Trade Balance figures. If you’re planning a currency transfer involving AUD it can be worth setting up target rates in case the best trade levels are available in the early hours when we’re not in the office.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar on the ropes vs the Pound during March. – is there further weakness ahead in April? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has had one of its best months in recent times against the Australian Dollar hitting the best rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds since June 2016 when the EU referendum was announced.

The Australian Dollar has been struggling with an imbalance between the western part of the country where the mining industry appears to be slowing down whilst the east coast cities seem to be performing better.

The issue for the Reserve Bank of Australia is how they will be able to manage monetary policy going forward. The RBA is due to meet next Tuesday and I think the tone will be very dovish and any talk of a rate hike will be a long time coming.

Inflation has been struggling and the economy is showing signs of a slowdown in Australia and this is another reason for the weakness of the Australian Dollar with GBPAUD rates hitting 1.85 earlier on this week.

America now has a higher interest rate than Australia and this has meant global investors has begun to bypass the previously attractive yield available down under in favour of placing money in the US.

The trade wars between the US and China have caused big problems for the Aussie Dollar and I think there could be worse to come with this particular topic as Trump has already been rather vocal about putting America first.

Meanwhile the economic data from the UK has been improving and only recently the Bank of England announced a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping interest rates on hold which suggests a rate hike may be coming fairly soon with odds relatively high of a rate hike coming in May.

On Wednesday Australia announces the latest Retail Sales data and I think this could come out lower than expected putting further pressure on the Australian Dollar vs the Pound.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Australian Dollars it may be worth holding on until later on next week.

However, if you’re selling Australian Dollars it may be worth organising this very soon.

If you would like further information about how to save money on exchange rates or you would like a free quote then email me directly with your requirements and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPAUD remain above 1.80?

The pound to Australian dollar rate is looking like it might rise further in the future so for clients looking to sell AUD for pounds a quick move is probably sensible. With the levels now safely above 1.80 fr over a week the prospect for it to dip back below 1.80 seems unlikely. Overall the expectation for clients who will need to buy pounds with Aussies is that moving sooner will probably be best.

We learned this week that the pound should find more favour against the Australian dollar on the back of improved expectations relating to the prospect of interest rate rises. The GBPAUD rate was dealt a double whammy when the US raised interest rates but also confirmed extra buoyancy in future hikes which has kept the AUD weaker against both currencies.

We learned very recently that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will be looking less likely to raise interest rates in the future, this has seen the Australian currency weaker. Interest rates are a major barometer of what will happen to a currency in the future, the expectations that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise interest rates ahead of the RBA is putting the Aussie on the back foot.

The next stages of progress will be made in the coming weeks, any surprise twists and turns on Brexit could unsettle the pound GBPAUD rate but the overall impression looks more positive. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds and Australian dollars making plans ahead of any spike is the best course of action.

If you have a transfer and wish for some expert information and assistance on the currency markets, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing back from you.

Pound hits referendum high to buy Australian Dollars (Tom Holian)

As predicted in a number of my previous articles covering the Pound vs the Australian Dollar I did say that I thought we could see GBPAUD rates break through 1.80 this month.

During Friday’s trading session my prediction came true after the one of the RBA members Debelle suggested that Australian interest rates are likely to be kept on hold for quite some time to come.

This saw GBPAUD rates move past 1.80 creating some excellent opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling.

Indeed, the Pound had a good week against most of its counterparts in anticipation of a lot of movement during the course of next week.

On Tuesday the UK releases its latest inflation figures for year on year with the latest Consumer Price Index for February.

Inflation is currently at 2.9% which is a long way above the target of 2% so another high reading could provide support for another interest rate hike in the UK.

Indeed, interest rates were raised towards the end of 2017 following a long run of high inflation so on Tuesday this could provide further justification of another rate hike currently 75% priced in for May.

On Wednesday UK unemployment figures are due to be published which are close to the lowest since records began over 40 years ago. However, one issue is that of Average Earnings which will be announced at the same time as the jobs data. Wages are struggling to keep up with inflation so this could see a potential banana skin for the Pound.

On Thursday the Bank of England will announce their latest monetary policy and although there is almost no chance of a rate hike if there are any suggestions of this coming in the near future I expect Sterling to rise in the value against the Australian Dollar.

However, arguably the biggest impact for anyone with an Australian Dollar requirement will come on Thursday when the EU Summit takes place. At the moment the future of the UK’s relationship with the European Union is very uncertain and uncertainty often results in heightened volatility.

Therefore, if you’re concerned about what may happen it may be worth getting things organised prior to Thursday.

If you would like further information about how to save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Key factors impacting Australian dollar exchange rates this week

So far its been a varied week for the Australian dollar against sterling and the US dollar, and therefore there has been opportunity for people buying Australian dollars and selling. When the market is up and down like it is at the moment, a contract that we offer is a limit order which allows clients to set a rate and if we can buy at that rate our computer systems do it for you. If you are buying or selling Australian dollars and want to find out more my direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk.

Below are a few reasons to why the Australian dollar has faced a varied week so far.  

US President Donald Trump and ‘trade wars’ is continuing to put pressure on the currency market and investors are retreating to assets they see as safe, therefore we are seeing unusual movements. At times we have seen investor flows out of the US dollar and into the Australian dollar, which isn’t the ‘norm’ however investors are heading to the Aussies for high returns of interest.

China released their latest industrial output numbers on Wednesday which impressed and many forecasters are suggesting a slight rise in commodity prices due to the demand from China in the upcoming months. This gave the Australian dollar a boost.

Over in the UK, the Chancellor of the Chequer Philip Hammond confirmed growth forecasts had been increased from 1.4% to 1.5% and the deficit predictions were far hawkish than at the last budget. No surprises this caused the pound to make gains against the Australian dollar.

If you are Australian dollars this week, month or year I would recommend emailing me with the the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and your timescales and I will response with the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage, I would strongly recommend you compare rates as I am confident I will be able to offer you additional savings with your transfer. All you need to do is email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Will the Pound continue to increase against the Australian Dollar this month? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has hit close to a 30 day high vs the Australian Dollar creating some very good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars recently. The Australian Dollar has come under a lot of pressure recently as global investors appear to be shying away from the AUD in favour of increasing yields elsewhere.

The minutes from the latest meeting in the US have all but guaranteed an interest rate hike in March and since then the Australian Dollar has weakened.

Indeed, the Bank of England are also considering increasing interest rates by as early as May according to some sources as inflation continues to remain above the target of 2%.

With the interest rates in Australia not as favourable as they were in previous years and with other nations looking at raising rates this is why we’re heading towards 1.80 for GBPAUD exchange rates.

A recent statement by RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested that the central bank are unlikely to be looking at raising rates until some point next year as Australia is struggling with low inflation. There appears to be a bit of a two tier economy as the western part of the country has much lower inflation than in the east and this is causing a headache for the RBA about how to control inflation concerns with monetary policy.

Wednesday could be a volatile day for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar with the latest release of Chinese manufacturing data. As China is such a large trading partner with Australia this can often have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar depending on how the data comes out.

If you’re in the process of buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me direclty for further information and a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Could the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar this month and possible reasons why? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has been steadily increasing against the Australian Dollar since the turn of the year and although we have seen some small losses for the Pound, generally speaking the market for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars has been very positive.

With the US threatening to continue raising interest rates the next interest rate hike by the Fed is likely to come in March and this is in part why we have seen the Australian Dollar struggle against the Pound.

On Tuesday the latest set of minutes are due to be released by the Reserve Bank of Australia and I think this could provide the catalyst for Sterling strength against the Australian Dollar as I think the RBA will be relatively cautious in their tone.

If you look at the markets through the eyes of a global investors if you have available funds it is likely that you would look to invest in the US as with interest rates planned to be going up as well as strong growth in the world’s leading economy this could potentially be a good investment.

This could result in a sell off for riskier based currencies such as the AUD and this is why I think in the longer term that we’ll see GBPAUD exchange rates challenge 1.80 before the end of this month.

On Tuesday the UK releases the latest Quarterly Inflation Report Hearings and as inflation has continued to remain higher than the target I think this will put pressure on the Bank of England to look at raising interest rates possibly as early as May.

On Wednesday the latest UK unemployment data is due to be published and although this has been very strong one of the concerns is Average Earnings which have been lagging behind inflation so this could see a bit of volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates in the middle of the week.

If you would like to free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly. Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money and help you with the timing of your transfer.

Feel free to email me directly with a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk