Tag Archives: Selling AUD

Australian dollar forecast – Increased volatility set to continue…

The Aussie dollar is being pulled in many different directions at present, as the market is encouraged to consider and take onboard many factors in its assessment of the value of the currency. Domestic economic and political concerns are high ahead of the Australian election this weekend, as are global concerns over trade wars and the impact on the Chinese economy. The Aussie dollar is softer this May under the pressure of such events, and I think may well lose further ground.

The elections this weekend could well see the Labour Party winning the election as their messages on climate change and improving health and education spending appear to hit the right notes with voters. This might well see the Australian dollar weaker after the weekend, since it is expected the increase in spending, might lead to worse economic performance and increase pressure on the Australian central bank, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), to cut interest rates.

Looking forward, investors with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might wish to be making some plans ahead of the election this weekend to try and protect or manage their position. You can email myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about this if you wish.

Will the Australian dollar weaken further?

Another concern for me would be the escalating trade wars which so far has seen the US and China, both raise tariffs on each other’s good. Trump has now levied 25% tariffs on US$200 bn worth of Chinese goods, whilst China has retaliated with between 5-25% tariffs on US$60bn worth of goods.

This just adds to the uncertain picture ahead for the global economy and I would expect will lead to a weaker AUD. Whilst the immediate sell off on stock markets and currencies seen earlier this week has been stemmed, with such investments staging a small comeback yesterday, the longer term outlook does not appear rosy.

The Australian dollar is very much supported by a strong global economy, in particular by China and its demand for raw materials. The increased uncertainty globally has seen the Australian economy struggle with inflation at a 16-year low, thereby putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates.

May is presenting much potential for the Australian dollar to come under some pressure, clients with a position to buy or sell Australian dollars might benefit from a quick review with us to discuss the best strategy moving forward. Please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss more about what might suit you best in this market.

Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

Important events on the Australian dollar this week

The Australian dollar exchange rate has been volatile in the last few weeks owing to the uncertainty over the future direction we will see on a number of factors. These include the Trade Wars with China and also the outcome from the latest economic data in Australia. Investors are expecting us to see the Australian currency closely reacting to developments on these issues, the immediate outlook is not clear.

China’s economic performance is a key indicator of the Australian dollar as investors track its progress with a view to better understanding where events will turn next. One of the key factors in all of this will be the next steps that the Trade Wars take with investors feeling any negative news would see the Australian dollar weaker.

Overnight are two speeches by RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, members which will carry some weight in the market. The actions and comments by the central bank are very important in providing some direction on which way the currency will perform in the week ahead. Most notably ahead is the speeches by Assistant Governor Bullock and also Debelle, either of which could prove most interesting for the Aussie.

Last week, there was some more positive Unemployment data released which will have had a more swaying impact on future economic policy from the RBA. Other news I would foresee as being instrumental in shaping the likelihood of market fluctuations will be the ECB interest rate decision. The European Central Bank will provide some insight into their own future monetary policy as well which will influence global risk sentiment.

In targeting a higher interest rate over the longer term, the Australian dollar exchange rate could lose value if investors look to try and shift towards the potentially higher yielding Euro.

If you have a currency transfer involving the Australian dollar and wish to learn of some of the latest market news, please do not hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson directly.

Jonathan Watson


Iron prices continue to put pressure on the Australian dollar

GBPAUD exchange rates have increased in value by 8 cents since September as the Australian dollar has been under pressure and sterling has rallied off the back of an interest rate hike and Brexit developments. To put this into monetary value a £200,000 conversion into Australian dollars now generates our clients an additional 16,000 Australian dollars.

The Australian economy relies heavily on iron ore, as iron ore makes up 16.3% of Australian exports. When iron ore prices fall this tends to have a direct impact on Australian dollar exchange rates. China is Australia main trading partner and as construction activity has been slowing in the 2nd largest economy the need for the commodity iron ore falls. Forecasters are suggesting that in the upcoming months iron ore prices will continue to fall and the price per tonne could plummet to $50.

The Australian dollar has also lost value in recent weeks as the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to give a dovish outlook in regards to interest rates. Governor Philip Lowe has insisted that monetary policy will not be changed in the foreseeable future and this was supported by the poor inflation numbers last month.

A data release to keep a close eye on for the remainder of the year is the US interest rate hike in December. If the US hike interest rates (87% chance according to forecasters) I expect a major sell off of Australian dollars which would make the Aussie cheaper to buy.

If you are buying or selling Australian dollars in the future, I would strongly recommend getting in contact to discuss your situation. The company I work offers a proactive service to offering economic information whilst having the ability to offer award winning exchange rates. Feel free to email me with your requirements along with the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling loses further ground on the Aussie Dollar, will GBP/AUD fall back into the early 1.60’s? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has fallen across the board of major currency pairs today, after some disappointing Retail Sales figures got the Pound off to a slow start.

The rate of inflation increasing to its highest level in 5-years along with wages struggling to keep up has been in the financial news recently, and applying pressure to the Pounds value.

The negative effects of the reducing purchasing power of the UK consumer is beginning to show, as today’s Retail Sales figures demonstrated that year-on-year sales in the UK retail sector are slowing, and on a monthly basis the figure for sales is now negative.

Many had hoped to see the Bank of England look at hiking interest rates in order to stem the issue, although hopes of a rate hike in early November have fallen this week after the BoE governor Mark Carney was quite dovish in his speech earlier this week.

Personally I think there could be a small hike in November but I don’t expect to see this push the GBP/AUD rate back above 1.70, as the pair have already fallen some distance since hitting last months highs when the rate hike was first discussed by the BoE.

Aside from the above issues I expect to see Brexit negotiations and how they’re unfolding continue to impact GBP rates across the board, and if you would like to be notified if there are any short term price changes for the Pound do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Buying and selling Australian Dollar rates finally expected to re-emerge from political limbo (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has been in a very visible limbo since the inconclusive election result, with Australian Dollar buyers and sellers waiting for news on where rate trends are expected to go moving forward.

That is not to say the interim period has been lacklustre and boring. Far from it. It is simply that economics has taken over in the meantime.

This has been the saga of interest rates which has been a dominant factor in currency value since last year, with the US being the first developed country to raise interest rates since the financial crisis.

Public disagreements between the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and members of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee over whether to raise interest rates in the UK or not has seen the Pound behaving like a yo-yo in recent weeks, but with little overall change.

The deciding factor will be the official formation of a minority Government next week, with official voting on their manifesto to go through Thursday-Friday to conclude the month of June.

The fact that any resolution seems likely to help the Pound given the hints noted recently on currency markets should be in the forefront of anyone with a Australian Dollar requirement’s thought process. The question at this point arguably is just how much the Pound will rise up against the Australian Dollar next week, and not if. 

In this context Australian Dollar buyers do not seem to have the same level of urgency as Australian Dollar sellers. You can secure exchange rates for AUD/GBP beofre interbank rates are expected rise back above 1.70 by contacting me over the weekend whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk. Even if your requirement is not until the end of the year, you can pre-book your currency at current attractive levels using the tools available at a specialist currency brokerage. There is not additional cost to pre-book.

I strongly recommend that if you have a currency requirement to buy Australian Dollars to contact me again on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your AUD return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you a significant sum on a prospective transfer.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate hits a new 2017 high as inflation data disappoints, will the trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has hit a new high against the Aussie Dollar today, as the pair have hit 1.7220 at one stage during today’s trading session.

The upward movement for the Pound begun early mostly due to Aussie Dollar weakness, as in the early hours of this morning the Australian inflation data came out worse than expected on both an annual and monthly basis albeit not drastically.

At the same time Sterling has performed well across the board during today’s trading session and at the time of writing the currency is up against all major currency pairs.

There has been talk of the Australian economy slowing in recent months, and with the US Fed Reserve now likely to continue to raise interest rates throughout the year I think the Aussie may end up trading quite considerably lower against the Pound as the year progresses. An increasing interest rate in the US could be bad news for the Australian Dollar as its likely that investors would rather hold their funds in the US due to the higher level of security it offers.

Limited demand for the Aussie Dollar is the reason I think we could see the GBP to AUD rate improve as the year goes on, but I do think that if the conservatives in the UK don’t win the election in June we could see another sell-off for the Pound.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Aussie Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPAUD rates rise above 1.70

GBPAUD rates have risen over 1.70 as sterling finds a little more support during a tough week and a raft of Asian data does little to lend support to the more recent strength on the Aussie. If you look at Chinese PMI, it came in just above 50 at 50.1. Anything above 50 represents expansion so in theory this is mildly supportive but a couple of notches lower and it represents a decline which would be negative for the Aussie. Other data came from Japan where New Home Sales were much lower. With Japan buying raw materials from Australia which would be used in the Construction sector less home sales will not be good for the Aussie economy. We have also had some Australian domestic data with Private Sector Credit slipping which explains the slight weakness from yesterday on the GBPAUD rates.

If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then this spike might be well worth taking advantage of. The expectations for sterling are not good and currently we are trading at very close to a 2 week high. Next week is the all important UK PMI data which is according to an assessment of the recent business surveys, unlikely to be positive for the pound. Next month is also the release of the first GDP release for the UK following the vote, we have seen deterioration’s in many areas of the UK economy, namely the Services sector and business confidence. What has kept sterling above water since the vote has been the impressive Retail data. This was based on good weather and a feel good factor from the Olympics, this is clearly not something we can rely on to support sterling in the next few months!

With the new RBA Governor making clear he is moving away from constantly cutting interest rates that ‘have little impact’ Australian dollar buyers upset at the recent moves lower on GBPAUD should not be crying over spilt milk. Historical followers of the rate will remember when GBPAUD dropped to 1.50 5 years ago. Looking at all the data in front of us and the expectation the Bank of England will cut well before the RBA do, a move into the lower 1.60’s seems very probable next month.

If you have a transfer to make and are interested in learning more. I would be interested to speak to you and help provide information to help you make a decision. Nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, making plans in advance even for the long term is usually a good idea. My name is Jonathan Watson and I am ready to speak to you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form below.

The author is Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages.

GBP/AUD exchange rate likely to be driven by US FED’s tone later today (Joseph Wright)

The GBP/AUD pair have remained range-bound for some time now, although there does appear to be a bias towards the downside as we’re seeing the Pound weaken on almost a daily basis at the moment.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia beginning to adopt a more bullish attitude the probability of another interest rate cut from them again this year has dropped down to 30% according to major bank Danske Bank. This coupled with the Bank of England’s likelihood of cutting rates once again in the UK is why I feel there is potential for further falls for GBP/AUD.

Aside from the UK’s and Australia’s own monetary policy plans, the GBP/AUD exchange rate’s direction is currently also being influenced by the US Fed Reserve Banks monetary policy plans.

It’s likely that when interest rates are increased in the US, the Pound will gain on the Aussie as at the moment the Australian Dollar has been benefiting as many investors worldwide wish to hold funds in AUD due to the high interest rates offered by Aussie banks.

Once rates increase in the US I’m expecting the Pound to gain value on the AUD, as deposits will likely switch from AUD to USD which will weaken the Aussie.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Australian Dollar boosted as Pound softens and commodities gain, will the AUD strength continue? (Joseph Wright)

After the Pounds recent surge off the back some much better than expected economic news releases, the Aussie Dollar has begun a fightback pushing the GBP/AUD back towards 1.70.

It will be interesting to see which direction the pair take and which key level is reached first (1.80 or 1.70).There is a lack of economic releases this week aiding the pairs movement so I think we’ll have to wait some time before either of those benchmarks are hit.

Over the past 48 hours it’s been the Aussie Dollar which has looked the strongest as news surfaced that Australian exports rose 3% on a monthly basis throughout July. Being a export driven economy this news was met well by the markets and we saw the GBP/AUD pair fall almost immediately. Similarly, Australia’s third largest export, iron ore, rose by 4% which of course is further good news for those hoping the Aussie Dollar will strengthen and this gain in iron ore price have fallen in line with gains across many commodities recently which also have worked in AUD’s favour.

There has been talk of further interest rate cuts from both the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as the Bank of England although the positive news out of both countries recently may well lead to those idea’s being shelved.

Personally I think there is scope for further AUD strength and if I had to pick I think we’re more likely to see GBP/AUD reach 1.70 than 1.80.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving both the Pound and Australian Dollar, feel free to get in contact with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I’ll be happy to discuss timings with you, as well as offering award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokers. Just provide me with an outline of your requirements and I’ll be back in touch as soon as possible. 

Will GBPAUD rates fall below 1.70?

It would appear that the pound which is enjoying a bounce since the UK enjoyed some slightly better than expected economic data which has given the pound a lift. Much of the data is before the Brexit but it is still giving the UK and the pound lots of support as it suggests that the economic fears about what might happen are over done. The main big shift since the Referendum has been the pound which against the Aussie has dropped by over 20 cents. Some commentators are predicting that we could easily see the rates fall further if we see the Bank of England cut interest rates again or even there is more firm news on what Brexit means. For now there are some very big economic questions to answer, namely what is Brexit and what is the true impact on the UK economy in the future? The answers here will take time and are unlikely to be good news in the short term.

From the Aussie side the Reserve Bank of Australia have stated that they expect future cuts as they target a weaker exchange rate. Part of their policy has been to weaken the Aussie, the idea being that since the economy is a net exporter it will benefit from a weaker exchange rate as it makes selling their goods more attractive. Unfortunately even with a lower interest rate, the currency has not weakened as much as the RBA had hoped and the GBPAUD rate could well drop further. Despite rate cuts the Aussie remains a very attractive currency to hold at this time, owing to the higher interest rates on offer in Australia versus the rest of the world.

If you have a transfer to consider involving the Australian dollar why not get in touch to see if you can get some useful information and also a better exchange rate? Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more or fill in the form below.