Tag Archives: Selling Australian Dollars

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – New British Prime Minister Next Week

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen significantly lower as Brexit drives the pound down ahead of a new British Prime Minister to be announced next week. GBP vs AUD has fallen to 1.7720 which has presented a good opportunity for those looking to sell Australian dollars to buy pounds. The direction of travel will now be heavily impacted by events next week once the new Prime Minister is in place on Wednesday. Boris Johnson is seen as the expected victor over Jeremy Hunt and any statements he makes will likely see considerable volatility for the GBP to AUD pair.

There have been reports that Boris could seek and early general election which would add another layer of political uncertainty to an already weak pound. The prospect of a Labour government or the alternative of a Conservative / Brexit party coalition of sorts would likely see the pound weaken in these outcomes both of which are credible. The reality is that there are a number of Conservative MP’s which may vote against the government in a confidence vote which would then lead the way to a general election. With a handful of remain MP’s who seek to remove a no deal Brexit in its entirety nothing can be ruled out at this stage.

The Australian dollar has proved extremely resilient against the pound despite weak growth number from China earlier I the week which showed growth to be the slowest in 27 years largely attributed to the US China trade war. With the trade dispute showing no signs of resolve just yet the Australian dollar could find itself reacting to any further developments and the performance of the Chinese economy. The markets at least took stock that some of the most recent numbers coming out of China were showing some signs of improvement. The truce on further tariffs between the US and China may help the Chinese economy for the time being but until a deal is in place it could be a bumpy ride for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar – RBA Cuts Rates

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has weakened despite an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia last night. The RBA have cut interest rates from 1.25% down to 1% as concerns over a global slowdown and a downturn in Australia continue to influence the central bank’s decision making. The cut last night had been largely priced into the markets and there hasn’t been a major market reaction to the news.

The pound is nonetheless weaker against the Australian dollar although this is more likely to do with the truce between the US and China which will stop further trade tariffs being applied. There is a better opportunity to convert Australian dollars into pounds on the back of these recent developments. This may not last as there are reservations that the issue of the US China trade war will be resolved. The RBA may or may not wish to cut interest rates again and this topic is likely to generate much discussion. The US Federal Reserve are also expected to cut interest rates this month and this could have a far reaching impact on the Australian dollar. There has been talk of a US interest rate cut of 50 basis points which would be more extreme in approach than we have seen in recent years.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the main driver for sterling exchange rates and the GBP to AUD pair is likely to see a volatile few months ahead of the latest deadline of 31st October 2019. The Conservative leadership battle continues between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson both of who are pushing to deliver on Brexit. Boris Johnson however has been more forthright having stated that Britain will leave the EU by this date, come what may, do or die.

The prospect of a no deal outcome is now becoming a credible proposition and this has been reflected in the price of sterling across the board after Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister. Those with pending currency requirements either buying or selling Australian dollars would be wise to plan around these important events.

For morte information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in moving funds then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Falls on Hope for US China Trade Deal (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen lower after following comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He stated that the US China trade deal is getting closer and he felt that it is 95% complete. This is good news for the commodity currencies to include the Australian dollar as they tend to benefit when the global economy is performing. The ongoing trade war between the US and China which has lasted for almost a year continues to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar as concerns for global growth remain. A weaker global economy means less production in China which is of course Australia’s largest export market for its raw materials. Any further developments will likely have a big impact on the GBP to AUD pair.

Brexit meanwhile continues to be the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates. As the leadership contest continues as the two prospective Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt battle it out the markets are incredibly interested to who will take the top job. With two very different approaches to Brexit the pound could travel in either direction depending on who becomes PM. Boris has made clear that he wishes to leave the no deal option on the table to try and force a deal by the latest deadline of 31st October. The prospect of no deal will likely keep the pressure on the price of sterling and there could be some even better opportunities ahead for those looking to covert Australian dollars to pounds. Those with pending requirements would be wise to consider planning around this important change in British politics with a volatile few months expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet again after the weekend on Monday for the next interest rate decision. The central bank cut rates to record lows at the last meeting and there is a high chance there will be another cut next week. Such a move should prove negative for the Australian dollar although any movement will also be driven by any interest rate decisions made in the US. The US Federal Reserve are widely expected to cut at the next meeting and possibly by as much as 50 basis points which may help limit any losses for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

US/China Trade Wars hurt the Australian Dollar (Daniel Johnson)

Australian Dollar hit by Trade Wars

In times of global economic uncertainty, commodity-based currencies such as the Australian Dollar usually struggle as investors seek safe haven investments for their money. Due to this the Australian Dollar has come under pressure lately due to the trade war between the US and China.

Australia has a heavy reliance on China purchasing it’s exports and as such any fall in Chinese growth has a knock on effect on the Aussie.  There has been steep fall  in Chinese trade activity for last month caused by the ongoing trade impasse with the United States.

Could there be further rate cuts from the RBA?

Another factor in the value of AUD has been the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25% earlier this year. This was an attempt to boost inflation towards the RBA’s target level of 2-3%. Based on comments from RBA members earlier this year there are predictions in the press that we could  see  more rate cuts later this year. This has the probability to weaken the Australian Dollar.

Those with an Australian Dollar requirement should keep an eye out for Australian employment data due out in the early hours of Thursday. Unemployment has risen in Australia of late, which was a contributing factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut, and if this is reflected yet again in May’s figures then the Aussie could lose value.

Comments from any RBA members following this data release could give an insight to monetary policy moving forward could therefore have an impact on the Australian Dollar.

Australia’s problems do not have the same weight as those of the UK’s, with no Prime Minister and Brexit in limbo, the Pound could be set for further losses, with the majority of candidates up for Tory leader ready to bring a ‘no deal’ back to the table. I expect Sterling to remain fragile for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 18 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rates before EU Elections (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is still finding support with rates sitting at 1.8550 for the GBP vs AUD pair despite the ongoing Brexit uncertainty in the UK. The Australian dollar has come under pressure over the last week following the decision by Donald Trump to deliver on promises made to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports which has resulted in Australian dollar weakness. China has since retaliated by imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of American imports.

There is hope that some agreement between the leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can still be reached and it should be highlighted that the tariffs won’t actually take effect until the Chinese goods that shipped last Friday actually reach American soil. The next meeting between the US and China will take place at the G20 summit in Japan and the markets will be awaiting any developments on trade.

The Australian dollar remains sensitive to these trade developments as a commodity currency and the fact that Australia is such a large export market for China. A good trade deal would be very welcome news for the Australian dollar although there is still every chance that the trade war could escalate and turn in to a global trade war, something that would be negative for Australian dollar exchange rates.

In the UK it has been announced that there will be a fourth and final vote in parliament to try and push through the existing deal on Brexit. Cross party talks continue but with a lack of agreement and the difficulty in finding enough support in the House of Commons it seems unlikely the deal will be voted through.

The EU elections next Friday could be a very good indicator of what is to come and those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to plan around this event. A major shift away from the two major political parties in the UK towards the Liberal Democrats and the newly formed Brexit Party could see a major market reaction for GBP to AUD. If there is a huge movement towards the Brexit Party headed up by Nigel Farage then GBP AUD could fall lower.

For more information on the Australian dollar and assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar: Brexit continues to Dictate GBP/AUD

The Brexit saga continues and now we are looking at an extension. GBP/AUD rates had recently risen to the highest levels since June 2016, breaching 1.88. This can be attributed to positive news surrounding Brexit, rumours were circulating that Brussel’s could make concessions on the Irish border and the chances of a no deal scenario dropped considerably.

PM Theresa May addressed the nation yesterday evening and made a plea to MPs to support her deal ahead of what is likely to be a third and final meaningful vote.

May also confirmed she had written to President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk to request an extension to Article 50. she has requested an extension until 30th June.

She also stated that she would not approve a long term extension to Article 50. This immediately raises the question whether this means she is prepared to step down as Prime minister should her deal be voted down and and then vote for a lengthy extension for talks.

She also said “this House will have to decide how to proceed”, if her deal is rejected for a third time.

If May were to resign you can expect this to hurt Sterling significantly.  GBP/AUD has now dropped into the 1.84s.

 US/China Trade War –  Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services and slow down in Chinese growth has a kick back on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.

The US/China trade war is currently hurting the Australian Dollar and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making decent gains against the Aussie.

There were rumours the trade war could be resolved by the end of the month, but Trump yesterday threw a spanner in the works saying the following:

“We’re not talking about removing them, we’re talking about leaving them for a substantial period of time,”  “Because we have to make sure that if we do the deal with China that China lives by the deal because they’ve had a lot of problems living by certain deals.”

Brexit will continue to be the key driver on GBP/AUD. I think at this point we are looking at an extension as both parties do not wish to deal with a no deal scenario. I think if an extension is called there will not be any great shakes on the market. If Brussels do give concessions on the Irish border however, expect substantial Sterling strength.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 18yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP to AUD Rates Break 1.85, Brexit Extension Possible (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has rocketed higher with levels breaking 1.85 for the GBP to AUD pair. The pound has spiked higher after a statement from Theresa May yesterday where she referenced a potential extension to Article 50. There has been pressure from members of her cabinet who have threated to resign unless no deal is removed as a potential outcome.

The markets must now wait for the meaningful vote to be held before 12th March which will see whether the existing withdrawal agreement can be pushed through parliament. If the deal does not go through as insufficient changes have been made to the backstop then there will be a vote on 14th March for an extension of Article 50 if MP’s reject a no deal.

Meanwhile Prime Minster Theresa May is in Brussels meeting with Michel Barnier to try and make legally binding changes to the contentious Irish backstop. The attorney general Geoffrey Cox has also been present in meetings to try and work a legal codicil to go with the withdrawal agreement that would carry legal force and would then pass through parliament. When the outcome of these talks is known this is likely to result in considerable market movement for the GBP vs AUD pair. Expect high volatility and potential good opportunities on the back of any new developments surrounding Brexit in these final stages.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has found support after a calm statement from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed would be patient with interest rates. Since the beginning of the year the Fed have been more dovish in its approach to raising interest rates and softening its stance with concerns of a slowdown in the US and more importantly the global slowdown stemming for China which is being exacerbated by the US China trade war. Investors are now considering whether to continue to invest in the dollar if the Fed is coming to an end of its rate tightening cycle which bodes well for the commodity currencies including the Australian dollar.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

RBA under pressure causing the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia has once again signalled that things are not looking in great shape for the Australian economy owing to higher unemployment levels combined with lower inflation if UK house prices continue to fall.

Indeed, according to some reports there has been a drop of almost 60% in investment from foreign buyers in to the property market in Australia.

Up until last year Australian house prices had been rising significantly but both Sydney and Melbourne which were leading the market in terms of house price growth have both started to feel the effects and have started to drop during the last 18 months.

With a lot of wealth for Australians tied up in their houses the fall in value is clearly a concern for the central bank as this could trigger a fall in consumer spending and then cause GDP to fall.

At the moment Australian interest rates are at their lowest levels in over 50 years and there appears to be little appetite to consider raising interest rates any time soon.

Indeed, if anything the expectation is for the Reserve Bank of Australia to look at cutting interest rates during 2019 and this is one of the main reasons for the weakness in the value of the Australian Dollar against the Pound.

In the meantime the Australian Dollar is also feeling the pressure owing to the ongoing Trade War issues between the US and China.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so any signs of a slowdown in growth or reduced demand will often have a negative impact on the value of the Australian Dollar and this is another reason why the GBPAUD exchange rate has been trading around the 1.80 level recently.

Relations between the two superpowers appear to have stalled once again and hopes are that a deal covering Chinese goods coming in to the US will be resolved before the deadline of 1st March.

Both sides are hoping that a resolution can be found but we are less than 2 weeks to go before the proposed deadline and this could negatively impact the value of the Australian Dollar which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the next fortnight.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian dollar at the mercy of global news!

The China – US Trade Wars have been a major factor driving the currency markets in the last 6-9 months, impacting the Australian dollar and the economy. Australian economic data has been mixed but with Chinese data reflecting a slowdown, particularly in Manufacturing, the Australian dollar has been softer.

Looking ahead there is lots of important news in the currency markets this week to move the Australian dollar, this includes information at home and abroad. Domestically we have the latest Australian CPI, Consumer Price Inflation, data to move the market. The Australian economy has been mixed and investors are still debating the prospect of interest rate hikes in the future.

Tomorrow is also important with the latest US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could be a market mover on the US dollar and thereby impact the Australian dollar. USDAUD is the most heavily traded pairing for the Aussie and any large movement on the USD can ‘weigh’ the Australian dollar down against other currencies.

Later this week we have the latest US-China trade war talks which could be a market mover in the future, clients with any AUD transfers should be keeping a very close eye on the latest news. The meeting this week might yield too much news since there is still a 1st March deadline for the talks to be finalised.

Finally, Friday is the latest US Non-Farm payroll data which might well trigger volatility on the Australian dollar, by altering global attitudes to risk and viewpoints on global trade. Clients looking to buy or sell the AUD should be very conscious of these developments which should see a very busy end to the week for the Australian dollar.

If you have a position buying or selling and wish to get a fresh update o the market and all the important issues driving your levels, please do get in touch to discuss the latest news with me Jonathan Watson.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Finds Support – 66 Days to Brexit (James Lovick)

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has found support over 1.80 on the back of the latest Brexit developments which have helped lift sterling. The Australian dollar has also come under pressure over ongoing concerns for the Chinese economy. Chinese Gross Domestic Product figures released yesterday exacerbated the situation after China reported its lowest growth since 1990.

As the second largest economy in the world any downturn in China is closely scrutinised by the markets and the Australian dollar is heavily influenced as a commodity currency. Considering the size of Australia’s export market to China then any slowdown in the Chinese and global economy will normally be felt in Australia too. The Australian dollar could now be set for a weaker period ahead especially if trade tensions between the US and China over trade continue. US President Donald Trump has called on China to “stop playing around” and do a trade deal.

Brexit meanwhile continues to bring uncertainty for the GBP to AUD pair. UK Prime Minister Theresa May updated the House of Commons yesterday signalling the next steps having been defeated on a historic scale last week to include returning to Brussels to seek a better deal. The Labour party have tabled an amendment to try and force a second referendum, what is often referred to as a peoples vote, something the Prime Minister is not supporting having highlighted risk to social cohesion. Potential government resignations have also been reported if ministers are banned from voting for any amendments aimed at stopping a no deal Brexit.

UK employment data are released this morning and any improvement in wage growth numbers are likely to be seen as welcome news for the economy and hence the pound. Market reaction is likely to be limited with bigger Brexit news. For the pound to move higher and break away for these lower levels there does need to be some certainly over Brexit and these next few weeks will likely create major volatility and potential opportunity as the exit date of 29th March approaches.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk