Tag Archives: Selling Australian Dollars

Australian Dollar to Pound Rates Strengthen on Hope of Positive G20 Summit (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have fallen lower to below 1.75 for the GBP AUD pair as Brexit uncertainty remains the biggest threat to the pound ahead of the parliamentary meaningful vote around the 12th December. There are reported 100 Conservative MP’s who have signalled that they will vote against the Prime Minister which leaves an even more uncertain period ahead. If the Prime Minister is unable to push forward with her Brexit deal then there are a number of different outcomes. A second vote in the House of Commons is perhaps the most likely outcome although a change of Prime Minister, a second referendum, a no deal Brexit or a Norway style trade deal cannot be ruled out.

The EU have stated that this is the best deal the UK will receive so in the event that Theresa May is unable to secure a better deal then the prospect of no deal in my view is starting to look much more likely to happen. The Bank of England has made worst case scenario predictions that there could be a crash in the pound of up to 25% which is making the price of sterling extremely sensitive to political developments in the UK.

The Australian dollar could also see a substantial boost if there is a breakthrough or at least a statement of intent for the US and China to reduce tariffs on trade and come to a future trade agreement. The Australian dollar could be big beneficiary if progress is made at the G20 summit this weekend where a slot has been put aside for US China talks. We’re not there yet and US President Donald Trump has been threatening more tariffs this week so it remains to be seen how constructive these talks will be if talks don’t well and tariffs are imposed on all Chinese goods then the Aussie could weaken considerably lower as those concerns grown on the future of global growth.

For more information on the Australian dollar exchange rates and for assistance on making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP to AUD Exchange Rates Uncertain ahead of EU Summit 25th Nov (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates remain on the back foot as uncertainty over Brexit continues to the big driver for GBP to AUD rates. The pound is trading at just over 1.76 against the Australian dollar and whilst there has been some support this week any major improvement is likely to be limited for the pound. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still trying to seal a deal on the political declaration for the future trading relationship between the UK and EU and a meeting last night failed to provide a breakthrough. Theresa May will now fly back to Brussels on Saturday ahead of the emergency EU summit which commences on Sunday.

The political declaration will be an important component to the deal and the specific wording of the text will help determine whether parliament will vote in favour of the deal that is almost on the table. Ultimately it will all come down to a meaningful vote in parliament on the final deal which will decide the future of the UK and the pound in the short term. It leaves a very uncertain few weeks for sterling exchange rates whilst the markets await this key vote in parliament.

The Australian dollar could come under some renewed pressure in these coming weeks as the issue of trade wars continues to impact on global markets. So far there has been no compromise for a future trade deal between the US and China as preparation are being made behind the scenes for a summit in Buenos Aires. Relations are likely to become even more tense as both Europe and China seek to argue that Donald Trump cannot continue to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium on the basis of national security.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will need to rule on this subject and the outcome will likely create added turmoil in the financial markets. If for example the WTO challenged the US on this point then in an extreme scenario the US could find itself breaking away from the WTO entirely. This could see a flight to safety to the US dollar leaving the Australian dollar in a risky position. Once again there is another focal point in the diary which will help direct GBP vs AUD.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to find the optimum time to convert funds either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – GBP AUD Crashes after Brexit Secretary Resigns (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates have crashed dramatically with rates falling by more than 2% to the lows of 1.75/1.76 after a brutal day in British politics. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reached an agreement with the EU over the draft withdrawal agreement but support from her cabinet is not unanimous. So far and in a single day there were seven government resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominc Raab which sent the pound tumbling. GBP to AUD rates now face yet another volatile day as the markets prepare for more government resignations and a possible leadership challenge.

Brexit supporter and chair of the backbench European Research Group has called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister and believes that enough letters to the 1922 Committee will be reached in the comings days to trigger a vote of no confidence. The Prime Minister must also put in place a new Brexit Secretary and it has been reported that Environment Secretary Michael Gove has turned down the offer. Where that leaves Michael Gove is less clear and many are expecting a resignation which would add more pressure on Theresa May and further weakness for the GBP to AUD pair. The outlook is so uncertain in British politics that there is room for further weakness for the pound against the Australian dollar in the short term.

The Australian dollar meanwhile has been boosted after strong employment data down under pointing to health consumer spending. A further 42,300 jobs were created in October which was significantly higher than the September reading. This will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia which has held concerns over weak wage growth and low inflation. The belief is that an improving labour market will feed through to higher wages which will allow the central bank to start raising interest rates. This is starting to look likely for 2019 with a good chance we may see the first rate hike in August next year.

There are likely to be major movements in these coming days. For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates Fall Below 1.80 (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen lower against the Australian dollar with rates for the GBP AUD pair falling below 1.80 once again. What happens in the US in these coming weeks and months is likely to have a big impact on the Australian dollar. With the US midterm elections out of the way it will be interesting to see how investors react to the news and if the results have an impact on whether he is able to implement his planned policies of increased expenditure in the US.

More importantly the future trade policy from the White house especially with China will be a major driver for GBP AUD rates. There have been noises that a meeting between China and the US could bear fruits for a future trade deal. Investors are concerned that an escalating trade war could have a negative impact on the Australian dollar as funds move to the safety of the US dollar. If an agreement can be reached though then this should benefit the Australian dollar going forward as confidence is restored in the commodity currency.

The Brexit negotiations have advanced in recent weeks which has helped boost the pound against the Australian dollar. Reports are filtering through in the media that we could be days away from a Brexit deal. Expect a few more weeks of heightened volatility though as any deal will have to be put before parliament which could make for a bumpy ride.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet this evening and any clues as to when the central bank next raises interest rates is likely to see added volatility for the dollar. The US Federal Reserve are still set to hike interest rates again this year and a meeting is being held this evening. The markets are expecting a rate hike to come in December although anything is possible this evening. As the differential widens between US interest rates and rates down under there is likely to be more weakness for the Australian dollar.

For assistance in making transfers when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Boosted on Strong Growth Report (James Lovick)

Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers released yesterday have helped support the Australian dollar after a strong number was produced. GDP rose by 0.9% which was higher than expected due to higher consumer spending which is lending support to the dollar. On an annual basis the figures have highlighted the fastest growth since 2012. Whilst the data presents a positive outlook the implications of the current trade wars are unlikely to have yet been realised.

Chinese import and export data this weekend could see a big market reaction for the Australian dollar. With heavy trade tariffs imposed on US and Chinese imports there are fears this could filter through into the wider global economy. Any signs that China’s economy is slowing down could see the Aussie come under renewed pressure. The trade wars between these two superpowers show no signs of easing at this time and so the outlook for the Aussie looks less stable. There is a high chance this could hamper the Aussie going forward with room for a sizeable drop.

GBP AUD

Rates for GBP AUD have seen a boost higher this week with rates jumping higher to 1.80 for the pair. In fact the pair has risen by around 7 cents since the beginning of August creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. The pound was boosted against the Australian dollar yesterday on reports that Germany and the UK were softening their stances with regards wording for the withdrawal agreement although this proved short lived.

Politics and Brexit are the number on driving force for GBP AUD and now that parliament has resumed after the summer recess then these next few months will be paramount in the future direction for the pair. I am expecting a hugely volatile few months and with this come opportunity for buyers and sellers alike.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to make the most of any market movement when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Forecast – Trump Agrees Zero Tariffs with EU (James Lovick)

The pound has made a small recovery against the Australian dollar with rates back over 1.77 for the GBP AUD pair. The ongoing theme for the Australian dollar in recent weeks has been the trade war story which has stemmed from trade policy decisions made by US President Donald Trump. The latest in the story is that the President has now agreed with the EU tariff free trade between the US and EU. Whilst this does not directly have an impact on the Australian economy it does signal a change in tact by President Trump and could suggest there is light at the end of the tunnel in this escalation of trade tariffs with China. The concern for the Aussie is that if there is a global trade war then the commodity currencies could suffer so any softening in trade policy coming out of the US could actually be seen as good for the Australian dollar.

Economic data from down under has been stronger in this last month with retail sales and consumer confidence performing better than expected. The recent employment data was strong and highlighted a buoyant workforce which has also proved beneficial for the Australian dollar.

Now that the British parliament has ended for the summer recess there are unlikely to be any major developments on Brexit until the end of August or early September. The pound has been left on a weaker footing after the high profile resignations in government and some concern over the dreaded no deal scenario. Clients looking to buy Australian dollars could find some better opportunities on the horizon if a deal can be reached on Brexit, but we are still probably a few months away from such an outcome.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars at the best rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Strength – Economic Outlook Positive

The Australian dollar is in a much better place at present finding considerable support including having made gains in excess of 3% against the pound in the last month. Australian Gross Domestic Product has performed very well climbing to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2018 which has restored some confidence in the Aussie. A small boost in global growth and specifically in the Chinese economy seems to be paying dividends for the Australian dollar and this rally may have further to go. Chinese retails sales data next week could create some market reaction and a strong number could prove beneficial for the Aussie.

As things stand the dollar has not been as adversely affected from the trade tariffs imposed between China and the US. The advantage for Australia is that it shares very close trade ties with China so unless a global trade war escalates that drags Australia in too then this relationship could in fact boost the dollar further. Clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are seeing a much better opportunity to convert and may wish to consider taking the risk out of the volatile currency markets. Rates for AUD GBP are sitting at 1.7680 and are considerably better than the 1.85 highs seen in recent months.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds should pay very close attention to developments in British politics next week. The Brexit withdrawal bill is finally going to go through the House of Commons and will be voted on. If UK Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to push through her vision of Brexit should Conservative rebels vote against what was in the manifesto then this could spell danger For the Prime Minister and the government. Any vote of no confidence pushed by Labour could see major volatility for sterling exchange rates and major market reaction.

For assistance in making transfer when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar after New Trump Tariffs (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar looks set for another volatile period after the announcement this afternoon for US tariffs to be imposed against the EU, Canada and Mexico. US President Donald Trump is moving forward with tariffs on steel and aluminium imports which could result in a trade war across the globe. The Australian dollar could see a period of weakness if this outcome materialises as the Aussie is a higher risk currency and generally performs worse in times of global uncertainty. Things could escalate quickly as the EU have made clear it will look to apply tariffs on American brands such as bourbon whiskey and Levi’s jeans. The US tariffs will take effect at midnight this evening so there could be some considerable volatility when the Australian markets open and a particularly volatile end to the week.

The Aussie did come under added pressure at the start of the week following developments in Italy which could have seen fresh elections. The outlook in Italy has improved throughout the week although it wouldn’t take much to see tension rise and an anti-establishment push from the two new parties seeking to form a government. Expect more uncertainty for EUR AUD on the back of developments in Italy.

Clients with a GBP AUD requirement should pay very close attention to what is happening in the UK with the ongoing Brexit. Whilst we may have been talking about it for over two years the process is about to become very interesting in these coming weeks as a vote on the Brexit withdrawal bill in the House of Commons approaches. There are whispers of a potential vote of no confidence in the government if UK Prime Minister Theresa May is defeated and this scenario could see major volatility for GBP AUD exchange rates. Clients looking to buy Australian dollars should plan around this event to avoid disappointment.

For assistance in making transfers either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Gains Considerably against the Pound after Bank of England Holds Interest Rates (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is seeing a volatile time and is continuing to come under renewed pressure having fallen against all of the major currencies yesterday. The Australian dollar has now dropped to the lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017. The reason for the most recent slide is really down to geopolitical concerns over the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. With the perceived risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East this is proving negative for the Australian dollar.

The US dollar is strengthening as one would expect in uncertain times especially as the US dollar remains a safe haven currency. The flip side is that the perceive riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar do not perform as well with funds moving out of Australia. The outlook for retail sales in Australia is not looking too bright at the moment either which is also keeping the dollar at bay.

GBP AUD

The Bank of England held interest rates today as widely expected although the pound has fallen dramatically against the Australian dollar today with rates dropping below 1.80 for the GBP AUD pair. There is currently an excellent opportunity for those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds. The Bank of England have cited Brexit uncertainty as reason not to hike after a poor run of economic data.

Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds could see some better opportunities to come although Brexit uncertainty could still prove to a burden for the price of sterling. Any wobbles here in the negotiations could see a drop for sterling although it must be said that the outlook on Brexit is starting to look considerably better and negotiations are now in the third and final round.

Over the water the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates last night but was interesting to hear is that the new Governor Adrian Orr signalled no desire to raise interest rates. In fact he cited inflation as too low and that it would need to rise to 2% before the central bank considered raising interest rates, something the bank does not foresee happening until late 2019. There are some similarities between the New Zealand and Australian economies as they are both commodity currencies and in my view this is a signal that Australia too is unlikely to hike any time soon. With no rate hikes on the horizon down under this is likely to be negative for the Australian dollar.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to time your own transfer when either buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakens on Uncertain Outlook (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under pressure having fallen to a 4 month low following a decline in commodity prices including the price of metals. The US dollar has also seen a rise in US bond yields and this is something that impacts negatively on the Aussie. The Australian dollar has traditionally performed well when global investors have invested their funds into the higher yielding Australian dollar when interest rates have been considerably higher than in the US for example. The tide has turned now though after the US has begun raising interest rates and looks set to continue doing so throughout 2018. Funds have been moving out of the Aussie and back to the safety of the US dollar which has resulted in a stronger US dollar and a weaker Aussie.

The trade tariffs which have been imposed by the US and China also weigh heavily on the Australian dollar due to the wealth of raw materials down under and also considering the volume of exports that go to China. Any further signals that trade could slow down and impact negatively on global growth could see the Australian dollar weaken further.

In my view any progress on NAFTA which covers the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and China could end up having a positive impact on the Aussie if a positive trade arrangement can be reached. Pressure is mounting to have a decisions made by the time of the Mexican elections in the summer which could make for an interesting period ahead. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds are seeing excellent prices available which are close to 1.85 for the pair. The Bank of England interest rate decision in May is also likely to throw up some sunrises and the rate hike that had been promised is no longer a certainty. In my view it is more likely the Bank of England will pause which could see GBP AUD come under some pressure.

For more information on buying or selling Australian dollars then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk