Tag Archives: sterling exchange rates

GBP to AUD Exchange Rates Uncertain ahead of EU Summit 25th Nov (James Lovick)

Pound to Australian dollar exchange rates remain on the back foot as uncertainty over Brexit continues to the big driver for GBP to AUD rates. The pound is trading at just over 1.76 against the Australian dollar and whilst there has been some support this week any major improvement is likely to be limited for the pound. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still trying to seal a deal on the political declaration for the future trading relationship between the UK and EU and a meeting last night failed to provide a breakthrough. Theresa May will now fly back to Brussels on Saturday ahead of the emergency EU summit which commences on Sunday.

The political declaration will be an important component to the deal and the specific wording of the text will help determine whether parliament will vote in favour of the deal that is almost on the table. Ultimately it will all come down to a meaningful vote in parliament on the final deal which will decide the future of the UK and the pound in the short term. It leaves a very uncertain few weeks for sterling exchange rates whilst the markets await this key vote in parliament.

The Australian dollar could come under some renewed pressure in these coming weeks as the issue of trade wars continues to impact on global markets. So far there has been no compromise for a future trade deal between the US and China as preparation are being made behind the scenes for a summit in Buenos Aires. Relations are likely to become even more tense as both Europe and China seek to argue that Donald Trump cannot continue to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium on the basis of national security.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will need to rule on this subject and the outcome will likely create added turmoil in the financial markets. If for example the WTO challenged the US on this point then in an extreme scenario the US could find itself breaking away from the WTO entirely. This could see a flight to safety to the US dollar leaving the Australian dollar in a risky position. Once again there is another focal point in the diary which will help direct GBP vs AUD.

For more information on Australian dollar exchange rates and how to find the optimum time to convert funds either buying or selling Australian dollars then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD – Brexit Final Stages (James Lovick)

The pound has pushed higher against the Australian dollar with levels breaking over 1.83 for the GBP AUD pair.

Now that the conservative party conference is out of the way and the “Dancing Queen” Prime Minister reiterated her vision of leaving the EU, the conversation for these coming weeks will be dominated by Brexit. With movement in negotiations expected by the time of the next EU summit this month it will be a hugely interesting and volatile period for sterling exchange rates.

Ultimately the direction of the price of sterling will be dictated by the terms of Brexit and whether or not there is a deal. Whilst the expectation is that some sort of a deal will be reached the markets do not yet appear convinced this is the case. With growing support for a Canada style type trade deal which is supported by the likes of Boris Johnson there could be some major changes yet to play out in this negotiation. This is likely to be one of the most volatile periods ahead for GBP AUD and there are likely to be opportunities for those clients looking to buy Australian dollars. Similarly if the negotiations approach a no deal scenario then those looking to sell Australian dollars could see some better rates on the horizon.

The trade wars between the US and China continue to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar and it may only be a matter of time before new tariffs are introduced. Any escalation on this front is likely to weigh heavy on the Australian dollar due to its large volume of exports which go to China. A global slowdown would also carry inherent risk for the Aussie. The commodity currencies generally fare less well in time of global economic uncertainty.

For assistance in making transfers and help with the timing of an exchange then please feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD ahead of Conservative Party Conference (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under a degree of pressure of late as trade war concerns continue to weigh heavy on the Aussie. The cooling property market down under with considerable falls seen in both Sydney and Melbourne are also attracting concerns from the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the markets are not expecting a property market crash bearing in mind the falls in house prices appear to be coming from two cities, the central bank will nonetheless be in no hurry to raise interest rates which could potentially slow growth.

Rates for GBP AUD are currently sitting at 1.8140 and the two biggest drivers for the pair will be Brexit and the ongoing US trade war with China. The Australian dollar is negatively impacted by the global uncertainty for a slowdown in global growth especially considering that China is such a major export market for Australia.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May was in New York yesterday speaking on Brexit as she tried to reassure business that a deal between Britain and the EU will be reached.

UK Gross Domestic Product figures are released tomorrow morning although the central focus in my opinion will be on the Conservative party conference this weekend. With so much to negotiate in these Brexit negotiations and the difficult task that Theresa May has in finding a deal that will work for the EU but also one that she can get through in parliament then there is considerable risk for the pound over these next two months.

An agreement is expected to be found although any clues as to whether the Chequers deal will fly or if another Canada type trade agreement takes preference will inevitably have a direct impact on the price of sterling exchange rates. With splits in the cabinet over a softer or harder Brexit then this conference in my opinion could give new direction for the price of sterling.

For assistance in transferring Australian dollars at the best exchange rates then please contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Poised for Volatility after US Tariffs are Enforced (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is now set for a volatile period after US trade tariffs on Chinese goods kicked in this morning as planned. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is likely to be sensitive to any further escalations in these trade wars and the dollar could come under considerable pressure. $34 billion worth of tariffs have been imposed as of today and China has already reciprocated. US President Donald Trump has signalled his intent to increase these tariffs to as much as a staggering $450 billion on Chinese products if China retaliated.

It will now be interesting to see the response from the US after this retaliation and where this heads next. The EU has also been embroiled into these trade disputes highlighting how big an issue this all is. If global economic growth falls in the future then the Australian dollar is likely to be one of the hardest hit.

GBP AUD

Today marks a hugely important today for those clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. British Prime Minister Theresa’s May will be holding a cabinet meeting at Chequers to finalise the detail on Brexit and how close Britain will be aligned to the EU. There has been much disagreement within her cabinet and today should give guidance as to whether Britain will pursue a soft or a hard Brexit. The pound is likely to react accordingly and this meeting does have the potential to cause some fireworks.

No details have yet been released but the outcome of today’s meeting will form the basis for a white paper on Brexit. A softer Brexit that maintains trade and one that is likely to be agreed by the EU is likely to see the pound rally. However any resignations or objections from within government could create even more uncertainty for sterling exchange rates. Clients would be wise to plan around this event as we could finally be at the tipping point.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers at the opportune time then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Australian Dollars? GBP AUD Supported (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under a fair amount of pressure amidst global economic and political changes. Rates for GBP AUD remain over 1.80 for the pair although a move higher to 1.90 may prove difficult in the short term. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds may wish to consider locking in at today’s rates and take advantage of these higher levels which have only recently become available.

The pound has been boosted following slightly better manufacturing numbers released yesterday as per the Purchasing Managers Index. Tomorrows services sector data for the UK could prove particularly volatile for the pound and a strong number could see a rally in the GBP AUD pair.

The Australian dollar could also come under added pressure in the short term as a result of some of the trade barriers which are being erected by China and the US at present. If trade barriers and tariffs continue to go up then the Australian dollar could be one to suffer although the markets are hopeful this behaviour will not turn into a fully blown trade war.

Those clients who are looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds should continue to see more volatility in the coming weeks and months as result of the ongoing Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU. One of the reasons the pound has rallied is due to the fact that the second round of negotiations has just been completed with talks now progressing on to future trade. Once the thorny issues of the Irish border and also whether financial services can be included in and trade deal have been resolved this could prove beneficial for sterling exchange rates.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to maximise on the rates of exchange when there is sudden movement then please feel free to get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBP AUD Hit 1.80?

The Australian dollar has come under a wave of new pressure as a result of concerns of the possibility of future trade tariffs being imposed from US President Donald Trump. Whilst the commentary coming from the White House has softened slightly overnight by suggesting that tariffs would only affect certain countries the uncertainty is still there and this is having a negative impact on the Aussie. There is a possibility of a trade war which could be damaging for the commodity currencies in particular which include the Australian and New Zealand dollars. You only need to look at how the Canadian dollar has been hammered over these developments to realise that the Aussie could weaken further. Any changes or policy implementations are likely to see the Australian dollar weaken and a move to 1.80 credible.

Selling Australian dollars

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are currently seeing some weaker levels with rates closer to 1.80 rather than 1.70 for the GBP AUD pair. Any opportunities for selling dollars are likely to stem from developments in the Brexit negotiations which remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates. The hot potato of the moment is whether or not financial services will be included in any future trade deal between Britain and the EU. So far and the response from the EU has been frosty with the French finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stating that there is little chance of a trade deal being included in the deal.

Whilst this uncertainty continues should mean some good opportunities for clients looking to sell Australian dollars. Any developments could see the pound weaken although I would be mindful that as talks move forward in the coming weeks the pound could start to rally if compromises between both sides are made. The pound remains weak against the majority of currencies as a result of Brexit and so clients may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later to take advantage of what are still attractive levels. My view is that it is only a matter of time before the pound rallies and potentially quite considerably. For assistance in trying to time your exchange the please get in contact.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how the markets movements are likely to impact on your own currency requirement then please feel free to email me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakens after US Fed Intervention (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under renewed pressure following new developments in the US following a speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He feels the US economy has strengthen since the last December rate increase and has indicated that interest rates may need to rise faster than initially first thought. This is relevant to the Australian dollar as the currency is heavily impacted by changes in US monetary policy. In this instance the prospect of higher interest rates in the US are likely to mean funds leaving Australia and back to the US where interest rates will be higher which is negative for the Aussie.
From here on any changes in stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia are likely to see considerable volatility for the Australian dollar.

GBP AUD

Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pound need to keep a very close eye on all the Brexit developments this week. There have been a lot of political interventions across the spectrum over the last couple of days ahead of the eagerly awaited speech from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The Irish border has become the political hot potato this week and a positive speech which is able to alleviate those concerns could see considerable strength for sterling exchange rates. There is a massive risk though that there could be major political uncertainty if political forces become able to force a general election or a second referendum.

UK data is light today with UK mortgage approvals although construction data from the Purchasing Managers Index released tomorrow could prove influential for GBP AUD. The construction sector is one of the first sectors to have troubles ahead of a downturn and the data could proved a good snapshot as to the health of the sector.

To discuss the Australian dollar and how it is likely to impact on your own currency requirement then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound increase further against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

We have seen some very positive gains for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar since the start of the year with GBPAUD exchange rates moving by as much as 3.5%.

This is the difference of almost £4,000 on a currency transfer of AUD$200,000 which highlights the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening in the foreign exchange markets.

As Australia Day was celebrated yesterday the markets remained fairly flat but I think we could see some further gains for Sterling coming next week. On Friday UK GDP figures for the final quarter of last year came out a lot better than expected with economic growth of 1.7% compared to the expectation of 1.4%.

The UK economy has been rather mixed over the last few months but could this be a sign that things are now looking a lot more positive for the UK and therefore Sterling?

Westpac, which is one of the leading banks in Australia, have suggested that the Australian Dollar could weaken during the course of this year as the RBA may not look at raising interest rates and they have also predicted that commodity prices could fall by as much as 20% during the course of this year.

With the US predicted to increase rates at least twice this year we could see a big sell off from the Australian Dollar into the US Dollar and this in turn could weaken the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth getting things prepared in the short term.

On Wednesday Australia releases its latest set of Inflation data and this is likely to influence what the Reserve Bank of Australia does with regards to monetary policy going forward.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars in the near future then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

 

Aussie Dollar Boosted on Comments from RBA (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has found a small degree of support this week after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe made clear that the next interest rate move is more likely to be up rather than down. The last minutes from the RBA signalled that there is unlikely to be any interest rate increase for a very long time so which actually helped see the Aussie weaken. Although the Governor’s comments don’t fundamentally change that much the markets can take it as reassurance that there is likely to be a rate rise possibly next year and this is giving the Aussie a small boost.

GBP AUD exchange rates could see an interesting day and rest of the week on the back of the budget that will be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond today. The well broadcasted budget is likely to see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates depending on how well it is received. Considering the Chancellor’s failed budget earlier this year he is unlikely to make any drastic changes and his hands are tied regardless as a result of Brexit uncertainty. As such GBP AUD rates are more likely to be impacted by the ongoing Brexit negotiations unless of course the Chancellor makes an epic mistake in which case his position would almost certainly be in jeopardy.

The Brexit negotiations remain deadlocked although a cabinet meeting on Monday evening seems to have unlocked more funds to be offered to Brussels with the condition being applied that the door must open to a future trade agreement. The caveat offered by the British government that nothing is agreed until all is agreed would suggest the UK could if necessary withdraw any offer of a financial settlement it makes and this will inevitable keep the pressure on sterling for the foreseeable future

At the next EU summit the EU leaders will decide if talks will move forward to trade and this is where there is likely to be substantial movement for clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. The summit around the 15th December in my view should see new direction for GBP AUD. Clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch at this stage in the run up this event to look at the options available to take the risk out of the market place and top try and maximise on any substantial changes in exchange rates. Feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Gains after Weaker Outlook from Reserve Bank of Australia (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under some renewed pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Thursday. As expected the central bank held rates steady at 1.5% but its tone on the future outlook was not as positive as expected resulting in some dollar weakness.

Data is light from Australia as we end the week so focus now moves to Australian business confidence numbers released on Tuesday.
UK data however is likely to see further volatility for GBP AUD after the National Institute for Economic and Social Research release their GDP forecast tomorrow afternoon. The numbers represent an excellent precursor to the official numbers released later in the month.

GBP AUD, Brexit & the French Election

The pound has rallied well against the Australian dollar making decent gains with rates almost breaking through 1.66 for this pair.

British politics surrounding Brexit will continue to be the single biggest driver for GBP AUD exchange rates and any confrontation between Britain and the EU in these coming weeks and months could see the pound weaken sharply. This is only the start of a long and extremely complicated negotiation which already has not gone off to the best start with the Gibraltar mix up. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollar may be wise to consider taking advantage of the current spike we are seeing for this pair.

For anyone that is hoping sterling exchange rates will move higher in my view would need to see a big problem in either Australia or the Eurozone for this to happen. The French election is one such consideration. Should Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen win the French election then the pound in my view would rally against most currencies including the Australian dollar. However, the polls are putting Emmanuel Macron in the lead so it is not very likely that Marine Le Pen would win. Those clients willing to take a punt should be aware of the potential opportunity if it happens! With both Brexit & Trump proving many wrong then I would not rule anything out.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk