Tag Archives: sterling exchange rates

Australian Dollar Poised for Volatility after US Tariffs are Enforced (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar is now set for a volatile period after US trade tariffs on Chinese goods kicked in this morning as planned. The Australian dollar as a commodity currency is likely to be sensitive to any further escalations in these trade wars and the dollar could come under considerable pressure. $34 billion worth of tariffs have been imposed as of today and China has already reciprocated. US President Donald Trump has signalled his intent to increase these tariffs to as much as a staggering $450 billion on Chinese products if China retaliated.

It will now be interesting to see the response from the US after this retaliation and where this heads next. The EU has also been embroiled into these trade disputes highlighting how big an issue this all is. If global economic growth falls in the future then the Australian dollar is likely to be one of the hardest hit.

GBP AUD

Today marks a hugely important today for those clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. British Prime Minister Theresa’s May will be holding a cabinet meeting at Chequers to finalise the detail on Brexit and how close Britain will be aligned to the EU. There has been much disagreement within her cabinet and today should give guidance as to whether Britain will pursue a soft or a hard Brexit. The pound is likely to react accordingly and this meeting does have the potential to cause some fireworks.

No details have yet been released but the outcome of today’s meeting will form the basis for a white paper on Brexit. A softer Brexit that maintains trade and one that is likely to be agreed by the EU is likely to see the pound rally. However any resignations or objections from within government could create even more uncertainty for sterling exchange rates. Clients would be wise to plan around this event as we could finally be at the tipping point.

For more information on the Australian dollar and for assistance in making transfers at the opportune time then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Buying Australian Dollars? GBP AUD Supported (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar remains under a fair amount of pressure amidst global economic and political changes. Rates for GBP AUD remain over 1.80 for the pair although a move higher to 1.90 may prove difficult in the short term. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars with pounds may wish to consider locking in at today’s rates and take advantage of these higher levels which have only recently become available.

The pound has been boosted following slightly better manufacturing numbers released yesterday as per the Purchasing Managers Index. Tomorrows services sector data for the UK could prove particularly volatile for the pound and a strong number could see a rally in the GBP AUD pair.

The Australian dollar could also come under added pressure in the short term as a result of some of the trade barriers which are being erected by China and the US at present. If trade barriers and tariffs continue to go up then the Australian dollar could be one to suffer although the markets are hopeful this behaviour will not turn into a fully blown trade war.

Those clients who are looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds should continue to see more volatility in the coming weeks and months as result of the ongoing Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU. One of the reasons the pound has rallied is due to the fact that the second round of negotiations has just been completed with talks now progressing on to future trade. Once the thorny issues of the Irish border and also whether financial services can be included in and trade deal have been resolved this could prove beneficial for sterling exchange rates.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how to maximise on the rates of exchange when there is sudden movement then please feel free to get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBP AUD Hit 1.80?

The Australian dollar has come under a wave of new pressure as a result of concerns of the possibility of future trade tariffs being imposed from US President Donald Trump. Whilst the commentary coming from the White House has softened slightly overnight by suggesting that tariffs would only affect certain countries the uncertainty is still there and this is having a negative impact on the Aussie. There is a possibility of a trade war which could be damaging for the commodity currencies in particular which include the Australian and New Zealand dollars. You only need to look at how the Canadian dollar has been hammered over these developments to realise that the Aussie could weaken further. Any changes or policy implementations are likely to see the Australian dollar weaken and a move to 1.80 credible.

Selling Australian dollars

Those clients looking to sell Australian dollars for pounds are currently seeing some weaker levels with rates closer to 1.80 rather than 1.70 for the GBP AUD pair. Any opportunities for selling dollars are likely to stem from developments in the Brexit negotiations which remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates. The hot potato of the moment is whether or not financial services will be included in any future trade deal between Britain and the EU. So far and the response from the EU has been frosty with the French finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stating that there is little chance of a trade deal being included in the deal.

Whilst this uncertainty continues should mean some good opportunities for clients looking to sell Australian dollars. Any developments could see the pound weaken although I would be mindful that as talks move forward in the coming weeks the pound could start to rally if compromises between both sides are made. The pound remains weak against the majority of currencies as a result of Brexit and so clients may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later to take advantage of what are still attractive levels. My view is that it is only a matter of time before the pound rallies and potentially quite considerably. For assistance in trying to time your exchange the please get in contact.

For more information on the Australian dollar and how the markets movements are likely to impact on your own currency requirement then please feel free to email me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar Weakens after US Fed Intervention (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under renewed pressure following new developments in the US following a speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He feels the US economy has strengthen since the last December rate increase and has indicated that interest rates may need to rise faster than initially first thought. This is relevant to the Australian dollar as the currency is heavily impacted by changes in US monetary policy. In this instance the prospect of higher interest rates in the US are likely to mean funds leaving Australia and back to the US where interest rates will be higher which is negative for the Aussie.
From here on any changes in stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia are likely to see considerable volatility for the Australian dollar.

GBP AUD

Clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pound need to keep a very close eye on all the Brexit developments this week. There have been a lot of political interventions across the spectrum over the last couple of days ahead of the eagerly awaited speech from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The Irish border has become the political hot potato this week and a positive speech which is able to alleviate those concerns could see considerable strength for sterling exchange rates. There is a massive risk though that there could be major political uncertainty if political forces become able to force a general election or a second referendum.

UK data is light today with UK mortgage approvals although construction data from the Purchasing Managers Index released tomorrow could prove influential for GBP AUD. The construction sector is one of the first sectors to have troubles ahead of a downturn and the data could proved a good snapshot as to the health of the sector.

To discuss the Australian dollar and how it is likely to impact on your own currency requirement then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound increase further against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

We have seen some very positive gains for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar since the start of the year with GBPAUD exchange rates moving by as much as 3.5%.

This is the difference of almost £4,000 on a currency transfer of AUD$200,000 which highlights the importance of keeping up to date with what is happening in the foreign exchange markets.

As Australia Day was celebrated yesterday the markets remained fairly flat but I think we could see some further gains for Sterling coming next week. On Friday UK GDP figures for the final quarter of last year came out a lot better than expected with economic growth of 1.7% compared to the expectation of 1.4%.

The UK economy has been rather mixed over the last few months but could this be a sign that things are now looking a lot more positive for the UK and therefore Sterling?

Westpac, which is one of the leading banks in Australia, have suggested that the Australian Dollar could weaken during the course of this year as the RBA may not look at raising interest rates and they have also predicted that commodity prices could fall by as much as 20% during the course of this year.

With the US predicted to increase rates at least twice this year we could see a big sell off from the Australian Dollar into the US Dollar and this in turn could weaken the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth getting things prepared in the short term.

On Wednesday Australia releases its latest set of Inflation data and this is likely to influence what the Reserve Bank of Australia does with regards to monetary policy going forward.

If you have a need to make a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars in the near future then feel free to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency compared to your bank or another currency broker.

Even a small improvement in the exchange rates can make a big difference so feel free to to email me and you may find you could save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will respond to you as soon as I can.

 

Aussie Dollar Boosted on Comments from RBA (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has found a small degree of support this week after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe made clear that the next interest rate move is more likely to be up rather than down. The last minutes from the RBA signalled that there is unlikely to be any interest rate increase for a very long time so which actually helped see the Aussie weaken. Although the Governor’s comments don’t fundamentally change that much the markets can take it as reassurance that there is likely to be a rate rise possibly next year and this is giving the Aussie a small boost.

GBP AUD exchange rates could see an interesting day and rest of the week on the back of the budget that will be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond today. The well broadcasted budget is likely to see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates depending on how well it is received. Considering the Chancellor’s failed budget earlier this year he is unlikely to make any drastic changes and his hands are tied regardless as a result of Brexit uncertainty. As such GBP AUD rates are more likely to be impacted by the ongoing Brexit negotiations unless of course the Chancellor makes an epic mistake in which case his position would almost certainly be in jeopardy.

The Brexit negotiations remain deadlocked although a cabinet meeting on Monday evening seems to have unlocked more funds to be offered to Brussels with the condition being applied that the door must open to a future trade agreement. The caveat offered by the British government that nothing is agreed until all is agreed would suggest the UK could if necessary withdraw any offer of a financial settlement it makes and this will inevitable keep the pressure on sterling for the foreseeable future

At the next EU summit the EU leaders will decide if talks will move forward to trade and this is where there is likely to be substantial movement for clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. The summit around the 15th December in my view should see new direction for GBP AUD. Clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch at this stage in the run up this event to look at the options available to take the risk out of the market place and top try and maximise on any substantial changes in exchange rates. Feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Gains after Weaker Outlook from Reserve Bank of Australia (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under some renewed pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Thursday. As expected the central bank held rates steady at 1.5% but its tone on the future outlook was not as positive as expected resulting in some dollar weakness.

Data is light from Australia as we end the week so focus now moves to Australian business confidence numbers released on Tuesday.
UK data however is likely to see further volatility for GBP AUD after the National Institute for Economic and Social Research release their GDP forecast tomorrow afternoon. The numbers represent an excellent precursor to the official numbers released later in the month.

GBP AUD, Brexit & the French Election

The pound has rallied well against the Australian dollar making decent gains with rates almost breaking through 1.66 for this pair.

British politics surrounding Brexit will continue to be the single biggest driver for GBP AUD exchange rates and any confrontation between Britain and the EU in these coming weeks and months could see the pound weaken sharply. This is only the start of a long and extremely complicated negotiation which already has not gone off to the best start with the Gibraltar mix up. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollar may be wise to consider taking advantage of the current spike we are seeing for this pair.

For anyone that is hoping sterling exchange rates will move higher in my view would need to see a big problem in either Australia or the Eurozone for this to happen. The French election is one such consideration. Should Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen win the French election then the pound in my view would rally against most currencies including the Australian dollar. However, the polls are putting Emmanuel Macron in the lead so it is not very likely that Marine Le Pen would win. Those clients willing to take a punt should be aware of the potential opportunity if it happens! With both Brexit & Trump proving many wrong then I would not rule anything out.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Making Gains Before Article 50 is Invoked Next Week (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has seen a wobble this week after concerns over the strong housing market have materialised. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting gave warning to risks associated with the housing market.

It is often the case that the construction sector and housing markets are normally the first to suddenly fall in uncertain times and at the start of a recession for example so the central bank is simply picking up on the risks associated with this. It is a small concern considering the Australian economy has continued to perform well without a recession for the last 25 plus years but it still had the effect of weakening the dollar.

Meanwhile for GBP AUD it will be an eventful couple of weeks with the announcement that Article 50 to be formally invoked on Wednesday 29th March. This has the potential to create considerable market volatility and I am of the opinion that the pound may see some positive market movement at that time or even a day or so after. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars may be presented with a short term window of opportunity.

Those clients with pressing requirements would be wise to set things up in place ready if there is substantial volatility.

As I have stated before, no country has ever left the European Union before so the decision really does have the power to create major volatility. There are no guarantees as to what exactly may happen but I feel it is fair to say that the pound will remain under pressure for some time yet as the Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU will take a minimum of two years to be completed which leaves a very long period of uncertainty to come.

The Scottish second independence has been postponed after tragic the waste of life from the terror attack at Westminster Palace which happened yesterday. Whilst the Scottish Parliament are expected to vote in favour of a second referendum it will be the tone from Nicola Sturgeon after the vote which could play on sterling exchange rates.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates – Brexit Will Go Ahead (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a rocky ride against the Australian dollar this week as uncertainty over Brexit and the House of Commons vote on the Brexit bill slowly comes to a head. Politics continues to be the main driving force for sterling exchange rates and the potential date of the 9th March for invoking Article 50 means the next few weeks could throw up some surprises for the pound and for the GBP AUD pair.

The House of Commons passed the Brexit bill last night without any amendments by a large majority. Although the bill must now pass through the House of Lords where things could become delayed it seems unlikely that this will now happen especially considering the vote in the House of Commons was won by 494 votes to 122. No country has ever left the EU before so it would be unwise to think this will be a smooth process. The reaction and stance from EU27 is unclear and this is creating the currency volatility as the exit negotiations have not even begun. Those clients needing to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to make contact to be kept in the loop with any substantial market movements.

The Australian dollar is likely to be impacted by two US Fed members who are speaking later today. The Aussie is impacted by events in the US especially as the focus there surrounds how many interest rate increases the US Fed are likely to make this year. Any suggestions that there is likely to be another US hike in March could see the Aussie weaken as funds return to the US following the higher rates on offer.

The Australian dollar is relatively well supported at present with the recent rise in the price of oil and other commodities. As Australia is regarded as a commodity currency considering its huge exports markets as well as being a major exporter of iron ore then the dollar is susceptible to shocks in the price of commodities. When there is a rise in these prices in the global arena the Australian dollar normally increases in value and this is what has been happening in recent weeks.

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Rate to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling falls as Brexit worries continue (Tom Holian)

The Pound to the Australian Dollar exchange rate has once again fallen during the course of the week as the Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates.

The absence of any clarity as to what will happen with the discussions and the worry that the UK will end up losing access to the single market has caused confidence in Sterling to wane.

On Thursday the Bank of England announced they would once again be keeping interest rates on hold with a 9-0 vote and the Quarterly Inflation Report suggested that inflation would fall from 2.8% to 2.7% which now means any sign of any interest rate hikes coming in the near future are now almost non-existent.

This has resulted in a big sell off for Sterling with global investors seeking higher yielding currencies in the form of the Australian Dollar which is why we have seen such big falls for GBPAUD exchange rates..

The prices of commodities such as iron ore during the last year have increased by 50% and with Chinese demand for Australia’s raw materials this has helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar vs the Pound as highlighted by the recent announcement of the Commodity Index.

Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold their latest interest rate decision on Tuesday with no signs of any change to policy. With commodity prices rising then this has seen Australia’s growth forecast predicted to come out at 2.4% compared to the previous result of 1.8% and combined with America’s strong growth this has kept demand strong for natural resources.

Going into next week I expect GBPAUD exchange rates to fall below 1.60 especially if the comments from the RBA remain positive and so if you need to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth organising early in the week.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency purchase.

For further information or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk