Tag Archives: sterling exchange rates

Aussie Dollar Boosted on Comments from RBA (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has found a small degree of support this week after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe made clear that the next interest rate move is more likely to be up rather than down. The last minutes from the RBA signalled that there is unlikely to be any interest rate increase for a very long time so which actually helped see the Aussie weaken. Although the Governor’s comments don’t fundamentally change that much the markets can take it as reassurance that there is likely to be a rate rise possibly next year and this is giving the Aussie a small boost.

GBP AUD exchange rates could see an interesting day and rest of the week on the back of the budget that will be delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond today. The well broadcasted budget is likely to see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates depending on how well it is received. Considering the Chancellor’s failed budget earlier this year he is unlikely to make any drastic changes and his hands are tied regardless as a result of Brexit uncertainty. As such GBP AUD rates are more likely to be impacted by the ongoing Brexit negotiations unless of course the Chancellor makes an epic mistake in which case his position would almost certainly be in jeopardy.

The Brexit negotiations remain deadlocked although a cabinet meeting on Monday evening seems to have unlocked more funds to be offered to Brussels with the condition being applied that the door must open to a future trade agreement. The caveat offered by the British government that nothing is agreed until all is agreed would suggest the UK could if necessary withdraw any offer of a financial settlement it makes and this will inevitable keep the pressure on sterling for the foreseeable future

At the next EU summit the EU leaders will decide if talks will move forward to trade and this is where there is likely to be substantial movement for clients looking to buy or sell Australian dollars with pounds. The summit around the 15th December in my view should see new direction for GBP AUD. Clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch at this stage in the run up this event to look at the options available to take the risk out of the market place and top try and maximise on any substantial changes in exchange rates. Feel free to email me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Gains after Weaker Outlook from Reserve Bank of Australia (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has come under some renewed pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Thursday. As expected the central bank held rates steady at 1.5% but its tone on the future outlook was not as positive as expected resulting in some dollar weakness.

Data is light from Australia as we end the week so focus now moves to Australian business confidence numbers released on Tuesday.
UK data however is likely to see further volatility for GBP AUD after the National Institute for Economic and Social Research release their GDP forecast tomorrow afternoon. The numbers represent an excellent precursor to the official numbers released later in the month.

GBP AUD, Brexit & the French Election

The pound has rallied well against the Australian dollar making decent gains with rates almost breaking through 1.66 for this pair.

British politics surrounding Brexit will continue to be the single biggest driver for GBP AUD exchange rates and any confrontation between Britain and the EU in these coming weeks and months could see the pound weaken sharply. This is only the start of a long and extremely complicated negotiation which already has not gone off to the best start with the Gibraltar mix up. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollar may be wise to consider taking advantage of the current spike we are seeing for this pair.

For anyone that is hoping sterling exchange rates will move higher in my view would need to see a big problem in either Australia or the Eurozone for this to happen. The French election is one such consideration. Should Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen win the French election then the pound in my view would rally against most currencies including the Australian dollar. However, the polls are putting Emmanuel Macron in the lead so it is not very likely that Marine Le Pen would win. Those clients willing to take a punt should be aware of the potential opportunity if it happens! With both Brexit & Trump proving many wrong then I would not rule anything out.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Making Gains Before Article 50 is Invoked Next Week (James Lovick)

The Australian dollar has seen a wobble this week after concerns over the strong housing market have materialised. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting gave warning to risks associated with the housing market.

It is often the case that the construction sector and housing markets are normally the first to suddenly fall in uncertain times and at the start of a recession for example so the central bank is simply picking up on the risks associated with this. It is a small concern considering the Australian economy has continued to perform well without a recession for the last 25 plus years but it still had the effect of weakening the dollar.

Meanwhile for GBP AUD it will be an eventful couple of weeks with the announcement that Article 50 to be formally invoked on Wednesday 29th March. This has the potential to create considerable market volatility and I am of the opinion that the pound may see some positive market movement at that time or even a day or so after. Those clients looking to buy Australian dollars may be presented with a short term window of opportunity.

Those clients with pressing requirements would be wise to set things up in place ready if there is substantial volatility.

As I have stated before, no country has ever left the European Union before so the decision really does have the power to create major volatility. There are no guarantees as to what exactly may happen but I feel it is fair to say that the pound will remain under pressure for some time yet as the Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU will take a minimum of two years to be completed which leaves a very long period of uncertainty to come.

The Scottish second independence has been postponed after tragic the waste of life from the terror attack at Westminster Palace which happened yesterday. Whilst the Scottish Parliament are expected to vote in favour of a second referendum it will be the tone from Nicola Sturgeon after the vote which could play on sterling exchange rates.

If you would like further information on Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Exchange Rates – Brexit Will Go Ahead (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a rocky ride against the Australian dollar this week as uncertainty over Brexit and the House of Commons vote on the Brexit bill slowly comes to a head. Politics continues to be the main driving force for sterling exchange rates and the potential date of the 9th March for invoking Article 50 means the next few weeks could throw up some surprises for the pound and for the GBP AUD pair.

The House of Commons passed the Brexit bill last night without any amendments by a large majority. Although the bill must now pass through the House of Lords where things could become delayed it seems unlikely that this will now happen especially considering the vote in the House of Commons was won by 494 votes to 122. No country has ever left the EU before so it would be unwise to think this will be a smooth process. The reaction and stance from EU27 is unclear and this is creating the currency volatility as the exit negotiations have not even begun. Those clients needing to buy or sell Australian dollars would be wise to make contact to be kept in the loop with any substantial market movements.

The Australian dollar is likely to be impacted by two US Fed members who are speaking later today. The Aussie is impacted by events in the US especially as the focus there surrounds how many interest rate increases the US Fed are likely to make this year. Any suggestions that there is likely to be another US hike in March could see the Aussie weaken as funds return to the US following the higher rates on offer.

The Australian dollar is relatively well supported at present with the recent rise in the price of oil and other commodities. As Australia is regarded as a commodity currency considering its huge exports markets as well as being a major exporter of iron ore then the dollar is susceptible to shocks in the price of commodities. When there is a rise in these prices in the global arena the Australian dollar normally increases in value and this is what has been happening in recent weeks.

If you would like further information on sterling or Australian dollar exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Rate to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling falls as Brexit worries continue (Tom Holian)

The Pound to the Australian Dollar exchange rate has once again fallen during the course of the week as the Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates.

The absence of any clarity as to what will happen with the discussions and the worry that the UK will end up losing access to the single market has caused confidence in Sterling to wane.

On Thursday the Bank of England announced they would once again be keeping interest rates on hold with a 9-0 vote and the Quarterly Inflation Report suggested that inflation would fall from 2.8% to 2.7% which now means any sign of any interest rate hikes coming in the near future are now almost non-existent.

This has resulted in a big sell off for Sterling with global investors seeking higher yielding currencies in the form of the Australian Dollar which is why we have seen such big falls for GBPAUD exchange rates..

The prices of commodities such as iron ore during the last year have increased by 50% and with Chinese demand for Australia’s raw materials this has helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar vs the Pound as highlighted by the recent announcement of the Commodity Index.

Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold their latest interest rate decision on Tuesday with no signs of any change to policy. With commodity prices rising then this has seen Australia’s growth forecast predicted to come out at 2.4% compared to the previous result of 1.8% and combined with America’s strong growth this has kept demand strong for natural resources.

Going into next week I expect GBPAUD exchange rates to fall below 1.60 especially if the comments from the RBA remain positive and so if you need to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth organising early in the week.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency purchase.

For further information or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP AUD Exchange Rates – Brexit Twists Ahead (James Lovick)

The pound has crashed against the Australian dollar as well as all of the major currencies after a monumental day on the markets with the UK quarterly inflation report and Bank of England interest rate decision followed by the Banks governor Mark Carney speaking. As if this wasn’t enough there was also a white paper surrounding the terms of Brexit which was produced in Parliament this afternoon.

The pound was already on the back foot against the dollar even before today’s events although GBP AUD has fallen by over 2% throughout the day. Those clients needing to sell Australian dollars would be wise to start considering their options as today has presented an excellent opportunity to convert. On a transfer of £200,000 equivalent the difference is over £4000 extra now compared to yesterday.

Sterling exchange rates may have performed better on the news that economic growth will rise to 2% in the UK as per the Bank of England’s forecast. However it was the news of further Brexit twists and turns which may have poured cold water on the pound.

Data is light on Friday with no Australian economic data and only services data for the UK .UK services as per the Purchasing managers Index highlights how well the engine room of the British economy is performing and any improvement may lend support to the pound.
However it is politics which is the biggest driving force at present for pound Australian dollar exchange rates. As this white paper is reviewed by politicians as well as a further vote in the House of Lords there is likely to be even more volatility to come in the next few weeks. Those clients with a pending requirement should be aware that a new date of March 9th has been proposed for Brexit to finally take place.

If you would like further information on sterling exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound Climb Higher against the Australian Dollar? (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a good rally over the last four weeks against the Australian dollar which has largely come about by the Trump election victory. In my view this very much opens the door for a trade agreement between Britain and the US whilst also giving other options in the Brexit negotiations which perhaps weren’t available before under the Obama administration. These options for trade probably wouldn’t be around with a Clinton administration either. However the Trump benefits seem to be wearing off for sterling exchange rates and the pound is hitting resistance at these higher levels – Those Brexit jitters are for the moment keeping a lid on the price of sterling.

GBP AUD may have a little further to go through considering the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% last night. This is likely to result in flows of funds returning to the US where interest rates are now higher and the likes of the Aussie and kiwi may reduce in value. The Fed have signalled there may be three rate hikes in 2017 so this is going to become extremely topical.

For this reason those clients needing to sell Australian dollars would be wise to take this into account as the dollar could weaken further. However those client selling Australian dollars could be in luck if the British government should win the appeal surrounding Brexit at the Supreme Court where a verdict is due in January. This in my view would result in  a fairly big fall in the value of the pound presenting another excellent opportunity to sell dollars.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling Australian dollars and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Exchange Rates Slip Back Below 1.70 (James Lovick)

The pound is still hovering just below the 1.70 mark for GBP AUD having slipped from a high of 1.7154 earlier in the week. The pound has been largely driven higher after the Trump victory which has proven to be a major boost for sterling exchange rates. The perceived better outlook with a potential trade deal between Britain and the US is the reason in my view for this sterling strength.

What are the main factors driving GBP AUD?

  1. UK Brexit & Politics
  2. US Fed Interest Rate Decision 14th December!

This week in Britain has been largely dominated with the Supreme Court appeal on whether the government must consult parliament before invoking Article 50. Although a verdict is not expected until January the fact that the case has been shown live throughout the entire appeal does give some clues as to the final outcome. The pound has found support as the markets appear to be leaning towards the government losing the appeal at the Supreme Court.

This ultimately may result in a softer Brexit which the markets see as a safer option for the British economy. It is evident that there are still many politicians including ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair who are desperate to push for a softer Brexit and it is this will in my view which is helping to prop up the pound.

The future for the Australian dollar meanwhile is uncertain as so much depends on the next US interest rate decision being held next Wednesday. My view remain that the US Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% marking a one year anniversary from the last hike. This is likely to be negative for the dollar as there is likely to be a flight of funds to the US dollar where interest rates will potentially be higher. There is likely to be high volatility after the announcement and it has the potential to be a major market mover creating new direction for the Aussie.

Clients who are holding sterling are seeing a very volatile period at the moment which is unlikely to change any time soon although sterling still appears to be on the up. If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP AUD Breaks 1.70 Before Retreating (James Lovick)

The pound has rocketed against all of the major currencies including the Australian dollar today breaking over 1.70 for GBP AUD before retreating in afternoon trade.

Sterling exchange rates have a had a good week following strong mortgage approvals data earlier on Tuesday highlighting a buoyant housing market which is a key feature of the British economy and is usually one of the first areas to struggle in uncertain times.

The strong mortgage approvals from the Bank of England give some reassurances to the market that the UK economy is still performing well in the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.

The lift today for sterling exchange rates appears to have come from comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis who suggested that he was open to paying into an EU budget to maintain access to the single market. This represents a so called soft Brexit which is perceived as better for the pound and the markets took this news well.

Events Next Week – GBP AUD

Clients needing to buy Australian dollars should be aware of two major events taking place imminently. The first is the Italian referendum on constitutional reform this Sunday. A no vote could work in the pounds favour in this instance.

The second event is the Supreme Court ruling on whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May must consult Parliament to push through Article 50. Should Theresa May lose the appeal then the pound is likely to gain across all of the major currencies as the process of Brexit will be frustrated and potentially delayed.

A win by Theresa May would mean a tougher Brexit more likely which could see the pound weaken.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling Australian dollars and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Exchange Rates Climb Higher against Australian Dollar (James Lovick)

The pound has slipped against the Australian dollar losing 0.3% although still maintaining the higher ground seen in the last two weeks. Rates for GBP AUD have 1.70 in sight and my view remains that this is likely to be seen.

The pound performed well yesterday after a confident and calm Autumn Statement delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond. This could have been a different story considering the coverage of the very high levels of debt that the government has to service but the fact that economic growth in the UK is expected to be amongst the highest in Europe is helping support sterling.

UK GDP numbers for the third quarter are released tomorrow morning and have the potential to create high volatility. Anything steady or stronger than expected could see the pound rally.

Politics Driving Sterling Exchange Rates

UK mortgage approvals this morning also arrived higher than expected providing another boost for the British economy at a time when the doom and gloom surrounding Brexit has been unsurmountable. It was only today that ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair came out and stated that Brexit is stoppable and peddled more Brexit doom. Hasn’t this man done enough damage?

Like it or not, politics surrounding Brexit and Trump is the order of the day for the sterling exchange rates and the Supreme Court ruling in December on whether Prime Minister Theresa May must consult Parliament to Invoke Article 50 is essential. This event for me carries a sizeable risk for sterling. The markets are likely to perceive a government win at the Supreme Court as a sign of a hard Brexit and the pound would likely fall in this scenario although there are other  potential scenarios as well.

Clients who are holding sterling or dollars are seeing some much better times after all the Brexit uncertainty to date. There may be a little bit further to go for the pound although there will inevitably be more hurdles surrounding Brexit as outline above. The Supreme Court case commences 5th December 2016 and it would pay to consider all your options well before this date which is now fast approaching.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling Australian dollars and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk