Tag Archives: sterling

Day of reckoning looms for Scotland and more importantly GBP/AUD (Ben Amrany)

The pound has today recovered fairly well against the AUD rising to a high at one point of 1.8325. This is a stark improvement from the lows of 1.71 just 10 days ago. This is a rise of around 6.5% in 10 days and should seriously be considered.

The rise is mainly due to expectations of a no vote for the Scottish referendum and the sell off of AUD after comments from the FED in the US regarding no dates on when interest rates will rise in the U.S. We will get the results to the referendum in the early hours of the morning UK time all being well. The way that I see it is as follows. There is likely to be a massive reaction, particularly for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a further appreciable sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

Tomorrow will one way or the other cause wide variations in the exchange rates and it would not surprise me if by close of play tomorrow GBP/AUD could be as high as 1.85 or as low as 1.76 depending on the outcome. If you are looking at buying or selling the AUD against the pound it may be wise to inform me of your requirement and I can explain the options available to you to help you minimise your risks to the market. You may email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

GBP/AUD back through 1.82 a 10 cent swing in 10 days (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has continued its strong rally against the Australian dollar having shifted 10 cents in last 10 days (5.8%). This makes a difference of AUD 20,000 on a £200k transfer.

Data from Australia has been relatively light this week highlighting how dominant sterling has been and just how the Scottish independence vote is influencing the value of the pound. With voting having started this morning and the results scheduled for 07:30 tomorrow morning, the next 24 hours are likely to be extremely volatile. I for one believe the ‘no’ camp will prevail and this is bound to lend further support to sterling and I would look for a shift towards 1.85.

Overnight the RBA bulletin gave little insight as to future monetary policy but I still believe the RBA will be uncomfortable with the value of the dollar and this 10 cent shift will have been a welcome move.

Looking at today’s data, and away from the Scottish independence vote, look out for UK retail sales data at 09:30. Figures expected to improve from 0.1% to 0.4% month on month and should boost sterling.

Should you like to get more information on the full currency service we provide then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Improved unemployment figures in Australia but the dollar still weakens against the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Following the pounds losses earlier this week (due to Sundays poll suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was taking the lead in the Scottish referendum) the pound has rebounded five cents or nearly 3% since Monday. The move came about as the latest opinion poll puts the ‘no’ vote at 53%  - for me the vote is likely to be a no and it is this that I believe will lend more support to sterling and push levels back though the 1.80 level. For this reasons should you be selling AUD then current rates should still look like an opportunity.

Overnight the Australian unemployment data fell to 6.1% from 6.4% but did little to affect the AUD exchange rate suggesting the current market is dominated by the movement of sterling. This volatility is set to continue for the next week until the vote passes on the 18th.

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478. To help you make the most of your currency it is important you get as much information as possible. Our market knowledge is available for any client and we are happy to assist with any bank to bank money exchange not matter how big or small. For more information please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar still overvalued and interest rates to remain steady – Australian interest rate decision leads to mild AUD weakness (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar weakened a little overnight following comments from RBA Governor Stevens that he still felt that the Australian Dollar was a little overvalued and that interest rates would remain  steady for a period of time.

Over the past year or so, Stevens appears to have changed his mind about the Australian Dollars strength more than the England cricket team change their bowlers.

The mere comments last night have pushed the rate a little in the favour of anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars and may now weigh a little on the strength of the Australian Dollar in the short term.

I can assist you if you are in the position where you need to either buy or sell Australian Dollars both in terms of providing you an exchange rate that is better than the banks and indeed other brokerages and offering you an extremely proactive service.

The company I work for has won lots of awards for our rates of exchange and even a small difference on the rate you achieve can make a large difference to the money you receive for your transaction.

Feel free to contact me directly by email with a brief description of your requirements and a telephone number and I shall be more than happy to contact you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk I look forward to speaking with you.

Australian Dollar Strongest since November 2013 (Tom Holian)

Sterling has continued its demise against the Australian Dollar with trading rates just above 1.77 at the time of writing. It appears as though investors have lost confidence in the Pound over the last few weeks in search of higher interest rates which are available down under.

The Chinese economy seems to be going well at the moment which helps to keep the Aussie Dollar strong and we are now the strongest level since November 2013 making it an excellent time to be transferring Australian Dollars back into Sterling.

Over the next week the Bank of England will meet to decide their interest rates. Personally speaking with inflation dropping recently in the UK I think there will be no change for next Thursday and this could keep the Australian Dollar strong against the Pound next week.

Due tomorrow morning is the Australian Private Sector credit for July and I think this could send GBPAUD rates into the 1.76 levels.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to be kept updated with currency movements or if you have a requirement to buy or sell AUD then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Will Sterling fall against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has continued to fall this week against the Australian Dollar as inflation in the UK showed a fall and more importantly a big difference between wage inflation rates.

Indeed, this weekend Bank of England member Ben Broadbent went on record to say that weak UK pay growth could persist. The BoE have halved their expectations of wage growth to 1.25% which means that there is less likelihood of an interest rate rise in the UK compared to recent expectations.

The Bank of England minutes which came out on Wednesday showed 2 of the 9 members voted for a rate rise from 0.25% to 0.75% but personally speaking I think with the recent negative movements for inflation I think that it will be now sometime before UK interest rates go up.

GBPAUD rates were higher in late July as UK GDP showed strong movements as well as a strong jobs market but the inflation data has really put paid to Sterling’s previous rally.

Sterling Aussie exchange rates have been trading between 1.77-1.78 towards the end of last week and I expect Sterling to continue to struggle owing to the comments made by Broadbent this weekend.

With China the biggest trading partner for Australia any positive or negative data will impact Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates. On Tuesday early morning we have the release of an economic outlook index and if strong could see further Australian Dollar strength against Sterling during the early part of next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote please contact me directly by sending an email Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Australian Dollar Strengthens against Sterling (Tom Holian)

Sterling had its worst week against the Australian Dollar for a long time following the disastrous Quarterly Inflation Report which showed a big gap between inflation and wage inflation. Although UK unemployment is now at its lowest level in almost ten years and house prices remain strong there appears to be an imbalance in how many people are in work and how much their real money allows them to spend.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney also said on Thursday following the Quarterly Inflation Report that he would not talk about interest rates which also led to speculation that UK interest rates may not rise as quickly as previously suggested. This saw a big sell off from the Pound and a fall below 1.80 against the AUD which has remained below those levels during Friday’s trading session as well.

I have been predicting that Sterling is too strong at the moment not only against the Australian Dollar but also against other currencies. With the Pound so strong this is likely to have a negative impact on British exports as they are less competitive with a strong Sterling so to me I think it’s a matter of time before the Pound experiences a little fall.

Next week sees the release of UK inflation data on Tuesday and the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday.

Both announcements are due to result in volatility for GBP vs AUD exchange rates so if you are worried about what to do with your currency transfer then contact me directly for a free quote to buy or sell Australian Dollars and I’m confident I can save you money on exchange rates compared to using your bank. Send me an email Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Prediction this week is for Australian Dollar strength.

 

 

 

Australian Dollar Forecast for Today (Tom Holian)

Sterling is creeping up this morning in anticipation of the UK unemployment figures due out in less than an hour.

The expectations are for a fall to 6.4% the best in many years which if comes out the same or better we could see Sterling rally across the board and strengthen against the Australian Dollar.

Chinese Retail Sales fell overnight from 12.4% to 12.2% which has weakened the AUD against the Pound. China is Australia’a leading trade partner and is a huge importer of Australian resources. Generally speaking if results are poor in China this has a detrimental effect on the Australian Dollar.

An hour after the UK unemployment data and arguably more important is the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report. Inflation in the UK has hit 1.9% recently which is close to the Bank of England’s target of 2% and this is turn could put further pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates sooner than the markets currently expect which is likely to lead to Sterling strength.

US Retail Sales are announced later this afternoon and this is often one of the biggest market movers of the month. If the results are strong this could increase the appetite for more risk so could potentially see the AUD fightback against the Pound later this afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Working for one of the UK’s leading UK based currency brokers I am confident we can offer you competitive exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

Sterling Australian Dollar Exchange Rates Fall (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has fallen at the end of the week owing to some very poor data released in the UK on Friday.

The week started strongly for the Pound and increased even further following the Australian unemployment figures which were the worst in over ten years down under. This sent Sterling in an upwards direction against the Aussie but Friday’s UK trade deficit which has increased swiftly changed the movement and sent Sterling plummeting against the Aussie Dollar providing some good short term selling opportunities to convert AUD into GBP.

The sanctions imposed on Russia could also be rather harmful for the British economy which trades approximately 7% of is exports with Russia. Germany is as much as 30% and with the UK and Eurozone so closely linked for trade this could have a negative impact for GBPAUD exchange rates if the sanctions continue.

When there is geopolitical uncertainty this often leads to riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar to weaken. However, as the US is involved in Iraq and the UK and Eurozone are impacted by the ongoing issues with Russia it could be argued that global investors are seeking safety in the Australian Dollar.

The largest trading partner with Australia is China and this morning showed Chinese inflation data as expected so this will likely give the Australian Dollar some short term strength going into early next week.

UK unemployment data is due on Wednesday morning and will closely watched by anyone with a GBPAUD currency transfer to make.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money compared to using a bank or if you would like to compare rates against your own currency broker then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Australian Employment change figures due out this evening, look out for AUD volatility

Australian employment change figures are due out overnight tonight and expectations are for the rate to remain at 6% which is still fairly healthy looking at some of the other figures recently released around the globe.

Personally after speaking to many clients over in Australia it does appear that parts of the country are starting to feel a bit of a slowdown and I would not be surprised to see the employment rate come out a little worse than expected but as usual pretty much anything can happen. Governor of the RBA Stevens still seems fairly upbeat about how the economy is performing at present after being quite the opposite merely a number of months ago.

The Australian Dollar made minor gains against Sterling this morning as we saw fairly poor industrial and manufacturing figures out for the U.K this morning but it still seems like the the exchange rate for GBP/AUD is stuck on the pivotal point of 1.80 waiting for the next big piece of news.

If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving either buying or selling the Australian Dollar then it is well worth contact me directly.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I have had thousands of people get in touch through this site and many have found they have made a saving against companies such as OZ Forex and HIFX so for the two minutes it takes to get in touch you may find you save a lot of money.