Tag Archives: sterling

GBP/AUD could be set to fall further after UK inflation unexpectedly drops

Bets in favour of the Bank of England hiking interest rates in the UK this year slid yesterday, after the UK inflation data released showed a drop in the cost of living in the UK.

Markets weren’t expecting this, and the Pound’s trend appears to have reversed after losing almost 10-cents against the Australian Dollar over the last month or so.

The markets had expected to see an interest rate hike two-weeks ago today after the UK economy had been showing some positive signs, but the drop in economic growth (its fallen to a 5-year low according to the latest GDP figures) has put the brakes on these plans.

Some economists are now predicting that it may not be until November this year until the next hike happens and that will of course be determined by how the UK economy performs.

There haven’t been a lot of reasons for the Aussie Dollar strength and I think the recent price changes can be put down to the Pound’s weakness. There aren’t expected to be any rate hikes down under this year and the Australian economy has also demonstrated signs of a slowdown.

The current GBP/AUD level is trading at a 2-month low, and if you wish to be updated in the event of a spike in the price do feel free to register your interest.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar continues to trade in a volatile fashion, will the currency continue to decline?

The Australian Dollar saw a slight rise yesterday against many of the major currency pairs, although this strength is being put down to AUD benefiting from traders buying against the Euro.

AUD being one of the biggest benefactors of Euro weakness has come at a good time for AUD, as it’s been losing value recently at quite a dramatic rate. The fall in the value of the Aussie Dollar has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia as they were concerned when the currency was considered overvalued. With the Australian economy being heavily export driven a weaker currency is a benefit as it will attract more business.

Those hoping for a stronger Aussie Dollar should consider this, as the RBA is unlikely to implement any policies to limit the weakening of AUD.

Earlier this week it was announced that wage growth is lagging down under, and it’s also been confirmed by the RBA that a rate hike this year is unlikely.

This leads me to believe that the Aussie Dollar will continue to drop in value, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the AUDUSD 2-year low tested now that we’ve seen a 1-year low breached.

When compared with the Pound the Aussie Dollar has staged a slight fightback after hitting an almost 2-year low, but I consider the longer term trend to be downward also despite the UK’s political uncertainty.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Australian Dollar predicted to fall throughout 2018

Those of our regular readers hoping for a higher Aussie Dollar will be aware of how its upside is currently limited, and how the the US Dollar is partly behind the softening Australian Dollar.

The most simplistic way of looking at it, is that now the US Dollar is in many cases offering a higher rate of return than the Australian Dollar, investors are more likely to hold funds in that currency as opposed the the Aussie. Previously AUD offered one of the highest rates of return within the developed world and that resulted in a strong Aussie Dollar.

The issue now is AUD has a long way to fall if it’s to return to more familiar trade levels when we consider historical levels, which is perhaps why some predict to see it continue to fall. To put the US Dollars increased attractiveness into perspective, the US Dollar Index (which measures the US Dollars performance against a number of major currency pairs) has risen 3% since April the 16th. A clear indication of how investors are pooling funds into the currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on the other hand is adopting a different approach to the Fred Reserve Bank in the US. There are no interest rate changes from the RBA expected until next year, which is perhaps another reason that some economists are expecting to see the Aussie Dollar fall.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Is the RBA’s monetary policy working, and how will this impact AUD exchange rates?

Australian interest rates have been set at 1.5% for around 20-months now. This is the longest period of time the rates have remained the same and interestingly, this is the lowest that interest rates have been in Australia.

Rates were dropped to this level back in August 2016 in order to stimulate the economy after it begun to show signs of a slowdown, and since then the RBA monthly meetings have been non-eventful. This is in stark contrast to back in 2008-2009 when the rates were changed on almost a monthly basis.

There are no changes expected for the next 6-months, which differs to the forecasts in the UK for example where the Bank of England is expected to hike rates at least once this year, with some forecasters predicting up to 4 over the next 18-months or so. The Fed Reserve in the US is pushing forward with the most aggressive monetary policy changes within the developed world, and this has negatively impacted the value of the Aussie Dollar as people are beginning to pool funds in the USD now that they can get a better return than when they hold funds in AUD.

Due to the Aussie economy not picking up much steam despite the low rates, and the RBA’s tentative approach to raising rates due to fears over an overheating house market, I think that we may see the AUD continue to lose value as the year progresses.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

How high could GBPAUD rates go?

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rates has been touching fresh highs as the pound rises and the Australian dollar weakens. A key factor in this trend has been the shift on the US dollar and the UK with interest rate hikes since both the UK and US are looking to raise interest rates whilst the Australian dollar has been weaker because there are no hikes planned.

This trend seems likely to continue in the weeks ahead as we learn more around the Bank of England who appear very keen to hike interest rates in the future. This will be data dependent but the path ahead is looking clearer which will only help the pound further in the future. The same too is definitely true of the US dollar and the US Federal Reserve who are likely to raise rates up to three more times this year.

As the US interest rate is higher now than the Australian interest rate it makes less sense to hold Australian dollars than US dollars. This has seen a big shift in USDAUD exchange rates which is weighing the Aussie dollar down against the pound and presenting much better opportunities to buy AUD with sterling.

The next really key news is this Thursday with the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data which could influence GBPAUD rates. I don’t think this will be a majorly important release but next week could see increased volatility with the latest Australian interest rate decision and important US Non-Farm Payroll data released.

I would not be surprised to GBPAUD pushing higher and we could easily hit 1.90 or the high and mid 1.80’s in April. If you are selling Australian dollars to buy pounds moving sooner than later seems the best bet. Otherwise targetting a more beneficial rate on any spikes might prove a profitable and worthy approach.

If you have any transfer buying or selling Australian dollars then understanding the latest news and trends can help you to maximise your rate by trading at the right time. For more information please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I hope like our website and information.

 

Best rates to buy AUD with GBP in 21 months!

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has risen to fresh highs, largely owing to a stronger pound. The outlook for the pound against the Australian dollar is now much better as progress on Brexit and confirmation of a transitional deal helps the pound to rise. The Australian dollar could come under further pressure this week as central banks in the UK and US are in focus.

Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes have been released which has seen the Australian dollar relatively unchanged, if you need to buy or sell Australian dollars against pounds the markets appears that it will be favouring the pound for this week anyway. Another major factor this week will be what happens with the US interest rate decision on Wednesday evening, this is when the US dollar might rise.

The relationship of the US dollar to the Australian dollar is very important and one that will see the big movements on GBPAUD and EURAUD too. When the US dollar rises it will often lead to the Australian dollar weakening too which gives the better opportunities to buy AUD with sterling.

There is a real belief that we could see further improvements for AUD buyers this week if the US Federal Reserve are positive in their outlook on interest rates. The pound is now at some of the best levels to buy Australian dollars since the Referendum 2016, this might well see the pound stronger further if more Brexit progress is announced.

For more information at no cost or obligation on the best ratesand timing to buy Australian dollars with pounds, please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Predictions of a higher GBP/AUD rate mount as Brexit transitional deal hopes grow (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate climbed during today’s trading session, with the pair now trading almost at the very top of the current trend.

The mid-market level for the pair hasn’t breached 1.80 in some time but the pair are currently trading in the 1.78’s, meaning that for those planning on making a GBP to AUD transfer are looking at attractive levels considering recent trading levels. I would add that the lower end of the trend is 1.60 so hopefully you can see my reasoning as to why the current levels are around the top of the market.

There are hopes that the Pound will climb further, and this week the Brexit Secretary, David Davis said that the UK ‘can live with’ a shorter transitional period which has boosted the Pound’s value along with the likelihood of UK interest rates climbing sooner than many had expected.

Analysts at Lloyd’s Bank have recently upgraded their forecasts for the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate this year. They had previously expected to see the pair trade at 1.72 at the inter-bank level although the changing tones from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia has changed their minds, with them upgrading their views on the Pound’s potential.

There isn’t any major economic data coming out of the UK or Australia this week, so I expect the pair to be driven by politics for the remainder of the week.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

The Aussie remains in the familiar ranges, what will move GBPAUD this week?

The pound to Australian dollar has been largely range bound in the last few weeks as fail to receive any new news which would trigger movement outside of the current levels. The GBPAUD rate range in the last month has been just 3 cents which whilst important is not a particularly big move for this pair.

In times of changing fortunes on the currency markets we can expect GBPAUD rates to fluctuate perhaps 5-10 cents in a busy period as the market adjusts to new news. There are many different factors which drive changes on the Aussie, including not only Australian data but also attitudes to risk in the currency markets.

As a ‘commodity currency’ the Aussie will rise and fall according to the outlook on the global economy. As a ‘higher yielding’ currency the AUD will often rise as investors park their cash there to benefit from the higher interest rates. This is in part evidenced by the news of late on the US dollar which has been rising, as the US dollar rises we have seen the Aussie weakening. Investors are shifting funds around to take stock of the changing interest rates between the currencies.

The key Australian data is focused around a speech from Governor Bullock tomorrow who is the Assistant Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia). This could see the pound to Australian dollar rate volatile although it is unlikely we will learn much new information. The RBA rate statement from last week failed to speak much movement, it didn’t tell us anything particularly new about the potential, or lack of any Australian interest rate changes.

There is some important news from the USA this week which could change attitudes to the Aussie, but all in all we might not see GBPAUD break from the recent ranges. For me, next week is looking a bit more interesting with the latest EU Summit where Brexit will be discussed, plus we have the latest US interest rate decision.

GBPAUD and the Aussie look to remain fairly range bound for now but this could quickly change. Using this quieter time to make plans for future developments is I believe a very smart move. For many clients buying AUD with pounds we are looking to trade GBPAUD above 1.80, for the sellers, many are targeting 1 AUD = 0.6 GBP.

If you have a transfer to make and are interested to secure your currency at the best rates with the most up to date information, please feel free to contact me to discuss further. To discuss further the market and your options please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Aussie Dollar strengthens despite RBA’s negative comments, where to next for the Aussie Dollar (Joseph Wright)

The Aussie Dollar has surprised the markets today after performing well, despite some downbeat comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

those of our readers following the Australian Dollar will be aware that the currency has lost a lot of value recently, with some economists predicting that the downward trend could continue.

Although this blog tends to have a Aussie Dollar to Pound narrative quite often, it’s worth noting that AUD has lost 5% against the US Dollar since the end of January which is a substantial drop even for the commodity based currencies.

When compared with the Pound, there appears to be support for the Aussie Dollar which has so far stopped GBP/AUD going above 1.80 since the Brexit vote. On a number of occasions the pair have got close but each time there is a reversal, so it will be interesting to see the Aussie Dollar goes from here.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that interest rate rises remain some way off. With the US FED Reserve hiking rates and US banks likely to offer a higher rate of return than AUD based ones soon, it’s leading many economists to predict further falls for the Australian Dollar.

Australian GDP has also been softening with the GDP (economic output) level falling below the 0.5% expectation over the past quarter.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major market movement for the GBP/AUD pair do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Sterling falls after strong words from the EU, will GBP/AUD continue to fall? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board today, after some strong words from the EU negotiating team regarding Brexit have caused Sterling bulls some cause for concern.

It appears that issues surrounding the Northern Irish border and how the customs union will continue along with whether there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Regular readers of ours will be aware that it’s Brexit related data that’s causing GBP exchange rates to move the most dramatically at the moment, and today is no different as such as an update from Michel Barnier is impacting the Pounds value to a greater extent than the news of a rate hike from the Bank of England recently.

The Pound to Aussie Dollar rate is now dropping into the mid 1.70’s after testing the late 1.70’s in recent weeks. Tomorrow there is the potential for further price movement as there will be there release of Manufacturing data which will cover expectations moving forward. Then on Friday there will be Services PMI which again will cover sentiment moving forward in what’s a very important sector for the UK.

If you would like to plan around these events do feel free to get in touch with me. Also Bank of England governor Mark Carney and UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be speaking on Friday which may move markets, so again it’s worth being aware of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.