Tag Archives: sterling

GBPAUD hits 1.70! What next?

The pound to Australian rate has hit the 1.70 mark as investors embrace Theresa May’s plans to call a snap General election. Expectations for the pound are now very much positive as investors find answers to some of the questions of uncertainty which have been plaguing the pound in the last few weeks and months. This is not just a story about the pound, of course, the Australian dollar has fallen back as the RBA indicate what many of us suspected some time ago, further interest rate cuts down the line are a real possibility.

GBPAUD could now move much higher as some of the previous reasons to hold on to Australian dollars evaporate. Expectations for the Australian dollar to move higher have been largely hampered in recent weeks as a mixed bag of economic data and a stronger pound makes life difficult for Australian dollar sellers. If you have Australian dollars to sell and are hoping for big improvements you might need to remind yourself of just how much the market has improved for you since the Referendum! With over 40 cents between the high and the low Australian dollar sellers are now at some of the best rates they have had since 2013!

GBPAUD could now well rise further, particularly since the likelihood is Theresa May will win the election with a very large majority. The overall expectation for the rates is that we could now easily test 1.80 in the next 4 weeks. If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital to the understanding of where rates might head.

We could now be about to break into some very much fresh ranges and any clients with an expectation to buy or sell the Australian dollar should be doing what they can to plan in advance for future volatility. If you have a transfer to make and wish to get an overview of the market and receive some updates and news on what might be happening please feel free to get in touch directly with me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect next on GBPAUD rates?

The pound to Australian dollar rate has improved further to the highs seen in January almost touching 1.66. There is some important economic data due out today which could easily change the picture on the rates with UK Industrial and Manufacturing data due at 09.30 am and then an estimate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at midday. If you are looking to buy Australian dollars you are currently 7 cents higher than the lows that were established below 1.60 earlier this year.

With markets now eagerly awaiting the latest news on the UK economy the big challenges ahead will be the extent to which the UK weathers any poor economic data or the likelihood of any interest rate hike or cut in Australia. Recent comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate that a cut is more likely which could present yet further opportunities for Aussie buyers in the future.

With the market squarely focused on the US too, economic data today could trigger some movements on the Australian dollar. Any speculation the US might be looking to raise interest rates sooner than expected could weaken the Australian dollar as investors sell off Aussies and increase their holdings of the US dollar. The key US data is Unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll data at 13.30 UK time, it will be closely watched by investors and could easily trigger some movements on the GBPAUD rate.

GBPAUD is up at some of the highest levels we have had since January which is presenting a great opportunity for Australian dollar buyers. If you have a transfer to make in the coming days and weeks these rates will not be around for long. To discuss the latest trends and themes which will move your exchange rate please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar feeling the pinch as Antipodean currencies have a poor start to the week (Daniel Wright)

So far the Australian Dollar has not had the greatest start  to the weeks trading, seeing losses against the Pound and  Sterling has pushed above and through the 1.65 (0.6060) mark today.

It does appear that the trend for AUD/GBP has now turned around a little, however the next 24 hours will be key for where it heads next with article 50 (the start of the brexit process) officially being triggered in the U.K tomorrow.

This will be a key factor for anyone looking to carry out a currency exchange involving either the Pound or Australian Dollar, as it will effectively start divorce proceedings between the U.K and the EU.

Global risk appetite appears to have fallen away a little too, as Antipodean and commodity based currencies such as the Australian Dollar have been on the decline for almost a week now.

My view for a while now is that I see currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar having a poor run in the coming weeks, as there is so much uncertainty around the world which  may lead to  a reversal of what is known as carry trading.

Carry trading is where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate and moves it into a currency with a higher interest rate, making a return on the difference. With higher interest rates the Australian Dollar is regularly used for carry trading and in times of global uncertainty you can see it weaken quite considerable as the carry trades are sold back and demand for the Australian Dollar declines.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you are looking to secure not only the best rate of exchange but to time it well too then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally to explain the various options available to you.

 

 

Australian Dollar Forecast

The impact of Article 50 on the Australian Dollar vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

How will the Pound be affected by Article 50 has been a question that I have been asked constantly over the last few days and with just a few days to go before Article 50 is formally triggered we will soon know the answer.

Sterling has had a very positive week vs the Australian Dollar but could that be driven by investors looking to make some short term gains before the uncertainty as to what may happen next week?

My personal expectation is that the uncertainty as to what will happen over the next 2 years as negotiations start to take place is likely to cause problems for the Pound.

With 27 European member states likely to make the talks difficult and protracted I don’t see why we should see any positive moves for Sterling at least for the time being.

There is an argument to suggest that the value of Sterling against the Australian Dollar has been kept at these low levels for some time as the trigger of Article 50 has been priced in but I think there are further losses to occur for Sterling next week.

The accompanying press statement by Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to cause huge swings for GBPAUD exchange rates as people try to second guess what they think will happen and it depends on her rhetoric.

Clearly she’ll try to reflect a positive stance but I think the Pound will struggle against the Australian Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re thinking of making a currency transfer and want to avoid the uncertainty of what may happen by the middle of the week it may be worth buying your currency beforehand.

If you don’t have the full availability of funds at the moment you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date of a small deposit.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates and help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

GBP/AUD exchange rate hovering at pivotal point of 1.60 – Where will rates head next? (Daniel Wright)

GBP/AUD exchange rates have been loitering around the 1.60 mark for a number of days now and it appears that neither currency has the power to push through the current levels of resistance and make a break either way.

With Brexit and the triggering of article 50 clearly hanging over the head of the Pound the Australian Dollar has been on a very good run of form, seeing a huge boost last Wednesday when the Federal Reserve over in the U.S hiked interest rates but only gave the nod to a further two interest rate hikes this year as opposed to the expectation of seeing a further three.

Interest rate hikes in the U.S are generally seen as negative for the Australian Dollar as it makes the USD more attractive to investors. With the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar a well known pairing that is used in carry trading, should either have news that makes it more attractive the other can suffer and you tend to see a large flow of money from one to the other very rapidly.

For those who are not aware, carry trading is a process where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate (e.g USD) and shifts it to one with a much larger one (e.g AUD), making a difference on the two. When Australian economic data is poor or the U.S has some good news, you tend to see what is known as the ‘unwinding’ of carry trades, leading to the Australian Dollar weakening and the U.S Dollar gaining strength due to supply and demand.

Personally, I feel that the 1.60 rate will not be hanging around much longer and I would not be surprised to see a rise for the Pound, although be wary of Sterling getting the jitters in the next week or so as we close in on article 50 being triggered on 29th March, this is the official start of the process of the U.K leaving the EU.

For anyone with a large currency exchange to make, either involving buying or selling Australian Dollars it is imperative that you have a proactive and knowledgeable currency broker on your side throughout these turbulent times.

If you would like my assistance then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and I will be more than happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in simple terms. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

A quick look at a GBP/AUD chart over the past 6 months will make it clear that the 1.60 level has acted as a key psychological level for some time now.

Since November of last year the GBP/AUD pair have bounced off of 1.60 around 4 times, and even in October of last year when the Pound came under huge pressure the rate only dipped into the 1.59’s for a short while before recovering back to levels above the key 1.60 mark.

Personally I think that a number of factors could reverse the direction of GBP/AUD, and I think 1.60 could remain a support level for the Pound with the pair likely to approach 1.70 once the Brexit is underway.

At present I think the markets are awaiting the certainty the invocation of Article 50 will give financial markets, which will in turn boost Sterling’s value. I’m also expecting to see the strongly performing Aussie Dollar lose some value should the US Fed Reserve Bank begin hiking interest rates as is planned in the US, as a higher yielding Dollar will likely limit demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar.

Aussie Dollar sellers are in the fortunate position of being able to convert their currency into Pounds at around 3 year highs. Those planning on selling AUD for GBP are able to improve on their outcome even further as our currency brokerage offers exchange rates that improve on those offered by the high street banks, therefore our clients receive more Pounds for the Aussie Dollars through us.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the strong Australian economy continue to boost the Aussie Dollars value? (Joseph Wright)

The downward trend for the Pound to Australian Dollar looks likely to continue as the Australian economy is continuing to go from strength to strength.

Against many other major currencies the Pound hasn’t fared badly so far in 2017, for example the Pound last week hit its highest level against the Euro so far in 2017.

The Pound’s performance against the Australian Dollar on the other hand has been disappointing as it’s lost almost 5% since the beginning of the year. I personally put this down to Australian Dollar strength as the currency has been boosted by rising commodity prices as well as a strong economy.

In the early hours of this morning the health of Australia’s economy was once again underlined as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP for the 4th quarter grew at 2.4%, and this figure was above the expectation of 1.9% analysts were expecting to see.

The GBP/AUD pair has been range bound between 1.60 and 1.70 for a while now but in recent weeks the pair have remained closer to the closer end of that trend, and I do think that if Brexit jitters in the UK increase and the Aussie economy remains on track I can see the pair fall below 1.60.

There has also been some better than expected data out of China in recent weeks which has boosted the Aussie due to the close business relationship between China and Australia.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will GBPAUD fall into the 1.50s? (Dayle Littlejohn)

The Australian dollar has gained momentum against sterling and since the end of May 2016. GBPAUD exchange rates were fluctuating above 2 and throughout the last 9 months GBPAUD has dropped 38 cents and the next milestone would be to break into the 1.50s.

The reason why the Australian dollar has performed so well against sterling is that the Australian dollar has been strengthening and sterling has been devaluing.

Australian interest rates sit at 1.5% and speculative traders leave their assets within the Australian dollar to make a decent amount of interest. We have seen this occur even more in recent months as speculators have sold off US dollars to buy Australian dollars as Donald Trump policies are a risk for speculative traders. In addition Iron Ore a commodity that Australia heavily rely on as an export has been on the charge and is up 50%.

As for the pound, Brexit continues to steal the headlines and this week the House of Lords are set to give their verdict to whether Theresa May can start the process of leaving the EU towards the end of the March. Some Lords have stated they plan to block the Brexit Bill until amendments have been made. For example some of the Lords believe MPs should have a final vote on the deal Theresa May manages to negotiate with EU leaders.

It has been documented last week that the House of Lords could be abolished if they go against Government, therefore I believe they will not rock the boat and they will approve Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Consequently I expect the pound will come under pressure in the weeks to come and a shift into the 1.50s is on the horizon.

For Australian dollar buyers short term, it looks like trading sooner rather than later may be wise! 

If you are buying Australian dollars with pounds or selling Australian dollars to buy pounds, it’s worth getting in touch and taking advantage of the service we can offer. It’s my job to keep my clients up to date with regular market information, so they can make informed decision to when to purchase their currency.

In addition we can then provide the client with our award winning exchange rates and they can save money compared to using their own bank or their current provider. If you are planning on making a transfer with your bank in the upcoming months, for example if you purchasing a property in Australia or the UK and need to purchase a currency, it costs you nothing to send me an email with your requirements and I will outline in further detail the process of using our company, how you know your money is safe and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. At that point you can make the decision to whether you wish to use our company.

We have the ability to offer our clients different contract options which will help the clients make as much money as possible. For example limit orders are useful when trying to target a certain rate and forward contracts when you are looking to purchase in the future.

I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

Further losses for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar expected (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some limited gains vs the Australian Dollar recently but ultimately is struggling to break much higher.

There are a number of different reasons as to why the Australian Dollar is performing so well against the Pound at the moment and I think we’ll see GBPAUD rates fall below 1.60 in the near future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made it clear that there will be no interest rate change for the time being and as interest rates are so high compared to any other leading economy we are continuing to see money invested in Australia.

Commodities have also been improving other the last year with the value of iron ore rising by over 50% in that same time. With iron ore such a huge part of the economy this has also kept the AUD strong against Sterling.

The Pound is also struggling against most major currencies and with next month due to see the triggering of Article 50 we could be in for further uncertainty ahead and a loss of confidence for Sterling.

Indeed, it is not yet clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and the lack of clarity is causing problems for the Pound.

The UK economy has actually been performing relatively well but recently we have seen two sets of data that should cause real concern. UK Average Earnings have started to fall and with inflation on the rise this means the UK consumer will ultimately have less money to spend and this was clearly demonstrated with the release of UK retail sales for January which saw the lowest level in three years.

On Wednesday we see the release of Chinese manufacturing data and Australia’s commodity index for February and if both come out well I think we’ll see the Pound fall against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like more information or for a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars then do not hesitate to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of offering you competitive rates as well as help with the timing of your transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/AUD declines further, will the pair fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is dropping in value once again against the Aussie Dollar, which in contrast to how the currency is performing against other major currencies such as the Euro or the US Dollar.

After some less than impressive US economic data releases so far this week, demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar is on the rise as the likelihood of the US Fed Reserve Bank raising interest rates 3 times this year is likely to weaken if economic data out of the US doesn’t justify it.

Planning a currency exchange involving the Aussie Dollar can be difficult as it’s performance depends on a number of outside factors. There are fears the Aussie could weaken as the year goes on if the US is to raise interest rates a number of times this year as demand for the US Dollar will then increase, and investors would likely move deposits from the likes of the Aussie Dollar into the US Dollar.

The Australian economy is also reliant on key trading partners such as China so a slowdown in the Chinese economy could also weigh on AUD’s value but as it stands the currency is doing particularly well.

With the Brexit process to begin next month I think there’s a chance the Pound could come under additional pressure, and we may see the mid -market level between GBP/AUD fall below 1.60.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.