Tag Archives: sterling

Weaker UK retail sales figures pushes GBP/AUD back through 1.80 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has started the day on the back foot against a host of currencies including the Australian Dollar following some weaker than forecast retail sales figures this morning. An expected figure month on month of 0.3% came in at 0.1% causing a shift against the value of sterling. This caused a continuation of the recent trend for GBP/AUD which has now sat range bound between 1.79-82 for a number of weeks. With current levels near the bottom end this weeks shift could be an opportunity for anyone selling AUD.

Tomorrow will also see another important release from the UK with the latest GDP figures released at 09:30. Should these track today’s weaker retails sales then another shift against the pound could be seen.

Should you have an upcoming foreign exchange transfer to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me with a brief overview of your currency requirement and I will happily contact you with more information. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have multiple contracts available the help maximise our clients transfer. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Sterling Rises in run up to Bank of England Minutes (Tom Holian)

The Bank of England minutes are due shortly for release and we will learn of the recent voting patterns by the Monetary Policy Committee from earlier this month.

Recently we have seen a consistent 9-0 vote against doing anything with interest rates in the UK but with a lot of positive data out in the UK more pressure is rising for an earlier rate rise than currently expected.

The statement following the minutes could provide us with more clues as to future monetary policy and I think in Mark Carney’s speech due at 1245pm UK time we could see Sterling advancing further against the Australian Dollar.

Tomorrow UK Retail Sales are due and with the weather having been very good recently and also the World Cup consumers are likely to have been spending more during this period. Therefore, I think this data will be strong and could see Sterling on the rise.

UK GDP data is out on Friday morning and with an Ernst & Young Item Club recently suggesting 3.1% this is also the highest out of the G7 nations. If the figures on Friday back this up expect Sterling strength against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank to transfer currency then contact me directly for  a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The Australian Dollar recovers last weeks losses but eyes are on UK GDP figures this afternoon for GBP/AUD traders

The Australian Dollar has recovered some of its losses after falling to a low of 1.8350 last week to recover back to 1.8230 today against the British Pound. The AUD originally weakened after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens commented that the Aussie Dollar was once again overvalued. This along with some negative economic data from down under sent the currency spiraling as it was as high as 1.7850 just a short while ago.

The pound recently has been one of the best performers against the major currencies with significant gains as the UK  is out performing many other major economies and interest rate hikes are surely around the corner in 2015.

For those with a keen eye on GBP/AUD this afternoon (UK time) sees the NIESR GDP figures being released for the UK. This is an estimate for Q2 on how much the UK economy has grown by. This could be a big market mover and cause volatility as it is keenly eyed by analysts to give a good indication for how the official figures may be released. A good positive number could assist the pound to push back towards 1.83 but if less than anticipated we could see a movement back below 1.82.

The recent gain for the pound against the AUD has bought some excellent buying opportunities but today’s business confidence survey has already put the pound on teh back foot so all eyes will now be looking at this afternoons data.

If you have a requirement to buy or sell the AUD and would like to speak with us regarding the service we offer to help you achieve better rates of exchanges along with a personal service to help you beat your banks rate then please do contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

Sterling Australian Dollar hits 1.83 (Tom Holian)

Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates have hit their highest level in many weeks following the very weak Australian Retail Sales. The expectation was for 0% change in May but they actually fell by 0.5%. This has caused a huge amount of weakness for the Australian Dollar during today’s trading session.

The European Central Bank also met today to discuss the possibility of further Quantitative Easing which has also seen a sell off from riskier currencies including the Aussie Dollar. When the global stability is rocked investors look to more safe haven currencies and this has seen investors plough into the Pound today.

The UK housing market has this week hit record levels surpassing that of 2007 so for the time being at least the UK economy is riding the crest of a wave.

The movement on GBPAUD exchange rates has been as much as 1% or the difference of £1,100 on a currency transfer of AUD$200,000.

If you would like a free quote when exchanging Australian Dollars or if you’re thinking about making a currency transfer in the future and want more information about how to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

Carney Gives Sterling A Huge Boost – UK Interest Rates May Go Up Sooner Than Expected (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling has been given a huge boost overnight and shot up nearly 2 cents versus the Aussie as Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, said at his Mansion House Speech that UK interest rates could go up sooner than expected.  He has been hugely worried about the massive increase in the housing market risking a boom posing “the greatest risk to the domestic economy”.  A rise in interest rates may help curb borrowing and cool the housing market, but it is also great news for savers and investors as they can get a better return on their funds, making the pound more attractive.

For the last year or so, UK economic data has been steadily improving with the unemployment rate falling sharply, GDP rising, and house prices increasing rapidly in some areas.  However the pound hasn’t really made the headway you would have expected because the Bank of England have continually sounded a cautious note about the prospect of interest rates rising, suggesting it would still be some way off and a very slow increase.  This hint at a change in stance has now allowed the pound to appreciate and helps with long term forecasts.

Again the sea-saw around 1.80 continues so I would be inclined to buy over this level, and if you are selling Aussie Dollars to sell under it.  If you have a currency transfer to make and would like help getting the best exchange rate please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Important News on the Aussie this week, what do you need to do?

Well well what a difference a year makes! For it was one year ago exactly GBPAUD was at 1.64! And earlier last year in March it was 1.46. The rate improvements on GBPAUD are quite simply amazing and I spoke to many a client last year that would have cut their arm to buy at these levels! If you need to make a currency exchange then please speak to us about the forecast for your deals. We undercut the banks and make sure all payments go through smoothly.

The Aussie has been slowly gaining against most currencies as the worst fears of interest rate cuts and a slowdown in China fail to be realised. This week sees Australian Unemployment data due on the Thursday morning which may well provide a small spike for anyone buying Australian dollars to take advantage of. Call our trading floor to get the latest news and to be kept up to speed.

For more information please speak to me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How will the Aussie react to events this week?

Overnight Australian GDP came in stronger than expected which has helped the Australian dollar to cement some of the more recent gains against its peers, notably sterling. With the outlook having previously been fairly balanced as to between whether or not the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) would raise or lower rates, it would appear now there is more chance of a rate hike than a cut down the line. This gearing towards a possible tightening of rates is something that will perhaps be more evident over the longer term but is something anyone with an interest in the Australian dollar should take note of.

Looking a bit closer at upcoming events I would highlight tomorrow’s ECB (European Central Bank) and Friday’s US jobs data as big market movers fort he Aussie dollar. This is all because the Australian dollar is a commodity currency which reacts to the sentiments of global markets. Let me give you an example; say there is an increase in perceptions the global economy is improving, the Aussie should strengthen as investors anticipate the Australian economy will benefit due to their abundance of natural resources and connected industries. On the flipside when there are perceptions the global economy is struggling the Aussie may weaken as investors anticipate their economy may suffer.

Around 80% of currency transactions are speculative so an awareness of what drives these speculative moves is essential to understanding currency movements particularly on the Aussie. If you need to buy or sell the Australian dollar we work as specialist currency brokers and can offer assistance on moving funds internationally at the best rates. Please feel free to contact the author directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling predicted to rise against the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

With Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates having gained 2% last week I feel that we could see some further improvements going into the last week of the month. The UK published Retail Sales figures which hit their highest level in 10 years giving support to the Pound. UK GDP also confirmed that the nation grew by 0.8% in the first quarter providing more confidence to global investors who have chosen Sterling over and above the Dollar and Euro last week.

With the Budget down under now having been fully digested it is predicted that it may hit everyone. Cuts are to be made on benefits, pensions and a higher tax rate to be levied which will clearly effect many Australians at both ends of the spectrum. The aim long term it to reduce the debt but it could have a negative effect on sentiment and confidence for consumers in the short term.

Economic growth and predicted growth both have big impacts on the strength of a currency so if spending is reduced this could harm the economy in the longer term and also the Australian Dollar.

For a while now I have been predicting that it is only a matter of time before the Australian Dollar weakens again. During 2013 we saw a movement of almost 30% from the low to the high and although I wouldn’t expect such an enormous move to happen again, at least in the short term, I do think the Australian Dollar is in line for a correction.

The UK economy has had a very strong run for the last few quarters since we left recession over 12 months ago and this has been reflected in the price of Sterling against all the major currencies including against the Australian Dollar.

With UK house prices having grown by an average of 8% over the last 12 months UK Mortgage Approvals due out on Tuesday morning  could send Sterling in an upwards direction.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank or another currency broker then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling Aussie remains stable (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates have remained relatively quiet today in the run up to the bank holiday weekend.

However, expectations of a rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia have fallen following the budget last week which has dented consumer confidence and therefore put a little bit of pressure on the Australian Dollar.

This is one of the reasons why Sterling has picked up against the Australian Dollar this week.

Expectations of an interest rate hike over the next 12 months were a month ago as high as 80% but now they’re down to a mere 12%. With consumer confidence dropping at its fastest rate since the financial crisis of 2008 the Aussie Dollar has had its biggest weekly drop since January providing Australian Dollar buyers with some excellent buying opportunities.

The UK data out during May has been very strong. We have seen Retail Sales at their highest level for ten years and UK unemployment the best since 2009 and with inflation under control things appear quite rosy for the UK…at least for the time being.

On Tuesday morning there is UK data due out in the form of UK Mortgage Approvals. With the housing market having risen nationally by an average of 8% is the figures are strong we could see Sterling strengthen against the Australian Dollar.

if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP AUD Nears 1.83 With UK Retail Figures Due Out Shortly (Colm Gilhooly)

The Aussie has dipped recently following the RBA lowering growth expectations over the next 2 quarters, and consumer confidence figures overnight have done little to support AUD.  This morning at 9.30 we see publication of the Bank of England Minutes, and the latest UK retail figures.  Most UK data recently has been positive and markets have once again been pricing in this positivity into the value of the pound.  The only drawback for sterling have been the Bank of England again highlighting at their Quarterly Inflation Report last week, that the positive news doesn’t mean UK interest rates will be going up any time soon.  Carney has also stated the UK could be facing a housing bubble unless property supply increases, and may re-examine their help to buy scheme.

I doubt the Minutes this morning will do much to change forecasts from last week, but there is always an outside chance that an MPC member will soon vote for a rate hike which would likely signal sterling strength.  In any event a strong set of retail figures could help sterling push on, but if you are looking to transfer money to Australia just be careful that a slightly below par performance today could see a reasonably good buying opportunity slip.

The other big news will be the US Federal Reserve Minutes published this evening.  Again the Fed have been taking a very dovish stance on monetary policy and the pace of easing their Quantitative Easing program.  However any change in tone here could cause a change in global confidence but also signal less readily available global liquidity which could damage the value of the Aussie Dollar as carry traders once again move out of the higher returns on offer to cover their base currency.

If you would like to get the best exchange rate for your money transfer then please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.