Tag Archives: sterling

Will the RBA cut interest rates? (Tom Holian)

One of the main reasons for the recent period of Australian Dollar strength vs the Pound is down to RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ quotes earlier this week claiming that interest rates will remain the same for the time-being.

With many industry experts expecting an interest rate cut imminently by the RBA the announcement shocked the currency markets and provided the Australian Dollar with much needed strength vs Sterling.

The RBA are due to meet next week and I think we could see further strengthening when Stevens talks again on Tuesday.

To me I think the Australian economy will need to act in the future to cut interest rates to help the economy which has struggled in recent times owing to the slowdown in China who are Australia’s main trading partner.

On Wednesday Australia announces GDP figures with expectations for 2.3% growth so any fall could contradict the comments made by the RBA governor earlier in the week.

With the Eurozone also due to release their own interest rate decision on Thursday I expect to see a huge amount of volatility for Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk




RBA Governor suggests no Interest Rate Cut Coming (Tom Holian)

Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates have dropped to their lowest levels in months after RBA governor Glenn Stevens claimed no interest rate change will happen and this had led to some big drops for Sterling vs the AUD$.

Even though the economy is growing slowly and inflation is low he did state that a cut in interest rates would be nowhere near as effective in stimulating the economy when rates were cut from higher levels in the 1990s.

The next RBA meeting will take place in February so clearly no interest rate change will occur for the next few months.

Indeed, there have been persistent rumours of an interest rate cut over the last few months downunder so the comments from this week have put paid to any speculation for the time being.

With the slowdown in China continuing and the geopolitical uncertainty regarding the recent terrorist attacks this would typically have caused a sell off for the Australian Dollar but the rhetoric used by Glenn Stevens has given the AUD some much needed support.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a fee quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk




RBA Minutes to cause big movements for Sterling vs Australian Dollar Exchange Rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates have traded within a fairly tight range recently but with the Reserve Bank of Australia due to publish the recent minutes on Tuesday this could cause big movements for exchange rates.

The Australian economy has slowed recently but the economic data has been varied.

Only a few days ago Australia confirmed 40,000 new jobs were created which is good news but the effects of a Chinese slowdown has kept the Australian Dollar under pressure.

The real problem for the RBA is that the property market down under appears to be spiralling out of control and if they cut interest rates this could cause more problems.

However, what they have looked at doing recently is to increase the cost of borrowing without interfering with the base rate.

To me it is a matter of time before the RBA cuts rates but I think they will wait to see what happens with interest rates in the US before making any change to monetary policy.

It will be the comments made by the RBA that will affect exchange rates and any jawboning is likely to weaken the Australian Dollar.

My prediction for the week is for Sterling to rise vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk




Chinese Retail sales figures tonight to be key – Thinner trading levels and U.K unemployment out tomorrow! (Daniel Wright)

Tonight we see Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures released which may be the next key piece of economic data to impact on the Australian Dollar. General expectations are for a slight improvement in production and for Retails Sales to remain at 10.9% so any deviation to this may lead to quite a volatile Australian Dollar overnight.

If your currency of interest is Sterling against the Australian Dollar then you may be in for a fair bit of movement over the trading day in the U.K on Wednesday throughout the morning.

We have U.K unemployment figures out at 09:30am followed by Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaking at 10:30am. The Bank of England mentioned last week that they will not be raising rates until 2017 which actually knocked the Pound down a little.

Importantly tomorrow you must realise that we have much thinner trading levels due to bank holidays in the States, Canada and France so there will be less money moving around and the general impact of economic data on the value of currency will no doubt be greater.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out involving buying or selling Australian Dollars in the near future and you want to make sure that you get the most for your money then it is well worth you contacting me directly.

I can generally get better rates than all major brokerages out there and even a slight saving on a large currency exchange can make a big difference. If you feel that I may be beneficial to you then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally.

Sterling rises vs the Australian Dollar following the Federal Reserve Meeting (Tom Holian)

Sterling has regained its losses vs the Australian Dollar seen earlier this month as the US Federal Reserve suggested last night that it is getting ready to raise interest rates.

The reason for the movement on GBP vs Australian Dollar rates is that as and when the US raise interest rates this means that riskier commodity based currencies such as the AUD weaken as global investors plough into the US Dollar.

The Pound has seen solid gains during the week and the Interbank level has seen rates hit 2.16 during the course of today’s trading session.

The Eurozone has also hinted at further Quantitative Easing last week and again this had led to Australian Dollar weakness.

Australian inflation data was also lower than expected this week and this has led to further calls for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk



Why the Australian dollar is now likely to make further gains!

The Australian dollar is likely to strengthen further in the future as the trends of the last few months continue. I will outline why I feel the AUD to GBP rate is likely to improve, ie if you need to buy Australian dollars it would appear moving sooner rather than later will turn out to be the best course of action.

US Interest Rates – The USD is the world’s leading currency (for now) and it has strengthened in the last year as investors believe there is a very strong chance that the US will raise their base interest rate. This caused the USD to strengthen weakening other currencies like the AUD. Now that the US is highly unlikely to be raising interest rates anytime soon, the USD has weakened and funds have been reinvested in AUD because it is a higher yielding currency.

China – The Chinese economy has been slowing to levels unacceptable to Beijing. Consequently the Aussie has weakened as investor fears rise over demand for Australian raw materials. However Beijing have already shown they will not accept a stalling economy and have intervened in the currency markets and cut their interest rate to boost growth. I firmly believe further stimulus will be used which will help boost the Chinese economy and strengthen the Australian economy and their currency.

GBP Weakness – The pound has weakened lately as investors fears over the weakness in the UK economy increase. The prospect of just ‘when’ the UK will raise interest rates has been diminishing for the latter half of this year and with yet more global uncertainty it seems likely sterling will struggle to make any major gains. UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data showed a slowdown, I think there will be worse news to come for the pound.

If you need to buy Australian dollars you are currently looking at a very good historical level that could easily fall further for the reasons above. We are currently in the midst of a ‘new trend’ on the rate with GBPAUD having peaked some weeks ago. Hoping that it will make a sudden return is unlikely… For more information on the market and your options to buy Australian dollars with sterling please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk


RBA minutes suggest action may still be taken if required – Will the Australian Dollar weaken off again? (Daniel Wright)

The Australian Dollar had staged a minor fight back over the last week or two however we are starting to see a little weakness once again following further weaker economic data from China and recent comments from the RBA that they would indeed be willing to act as necessary should the decline in Chinese data continue and the Australian economy start to feel the pinch.

On ‘black Monday’ a few weeks back we hit 7 year highs to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling and I still personally would not rule out seeing a similar spike happening again at some point in the coming weeks and months.

With that in mind it may be prudent to take advantage of limit orders being placed into the market if you are looking to buy Australian Dollars in the near future. A limit order is a free and handy market toll where you can place an order to buy currency at a specified rate of exchange and should the market spike in your favour at any point 24 hours a day, 7 days a week then your currency is bought out automatically for you and depending on the time difference we would then call you to give you the good news.

As long as the order has not gone through you can cancel or amend it at any time so you are not stuck with it forever if the market just does not get where you need it to be be.

When we had the big spike a few weeks back a number of my clients managed to achieve 2.20+ some of these clients had been waiting years for such a great price and it was only around for a number of hours!

If you would like to discuss limit orders in more detail or you simply have an exchange involving buying or selling Australian Dollars at top market prices then it would make sense to get in contact with me personally. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirement and a contact number and I will ensure I contact you personally.

RBA Meeting Minutes due and impact for the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

During the last month Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates have moved by over 5% from the high to low.

With the UK GDP figures for the previous quarter having been downgraded from 2.6% to 2.4% a fortnight ago and inflation measuring below 0% for the second time since 1960 the UK economy has showed signs os slowing down.

However, although exchange rates for GBPAUD have been reflecting this data recently the good news for anyone holding Sterling is that UK unemployment came out a lot better than expected at just 5.4% which stopped the recent falls for Sterling.

To me the Australian economy is still on the verge of a big slowdown and a recent article published in the Sydney Morning Herald shows that the auction market to buy homes in Sydney has seen its worst week in three years.

With the RBA having earlier this year claimed they are worried about the Sydney property market to me it is a bubble waiting to burst.

Indeed, with the Sydney market showing 4.9% growth during the last quarter this is clearly unsustainable and if this starts to slow it is simply a matter of time before the RBA looks at cutting interest rates.

Therefore, any hints of a rate cut in the meeting minutes due on Tuesday could see Australian Dollar weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk




Australian Unemployment data does little to impact GBP vs AUD rates (Tom Holian)

GBPAUD rates have remained in a very tight range during today’s trading session following the release of Australian unemployment data that came out first thing this morning.

It appears that the lack of movement for GBPAUD exchange rates is that the data due out for tomorrow in the form of Eurozone inflation data could have a  big impact on Sterling.

Although UK inflation is now below 0% the inflation levels for the Eurozone if worse than the expected -0.1% could help to strengthen the Pound across all major currencies.

Next Tuesday’s RBA minutes could affect the AUD in a negative way as my suspicion is that the RBA will cut interest rates at some stage in the near future and the minutes could reflect this opinion.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk



Will GBPAUD drop below 2 AUD / 1 GBP?

With the recent shifts in sentiment on the Australian dollar and sterling, GBPAUD levels have dipped to rates not see since July. Further uncertainty over the UK economy and improvements in Australian and Chinese data could easily help the rate to climb further to 2 or 0.5 on AUDGBP. Exchange rates to buy Australian dollars had risen to multi year highs this year as economic uncertainty in Australia and China combined with high expectations over sterling to present very close to more ‘historical’ rates.

With the recent changes in sentiment sterling is crashing and the Australian dollar is finding favour. It is not all plain sailing and Chinese Import data overnight showed imports falling by 17%. However I believe the worst fears surrounding the Australian economy will not be realised and that the overall strength of the Chinese economy will keep the Australian dollar supported.

Further improvements on the rate for AUD sellers look like a strong possibility and if you are looking to exchange AUD for GBP current rates represent a very good much improved opportunity. I think the current rally which has taken us to this point is likely to persist and think if you need to buy AUD moving sooner rather later will be best. AUD sellers might wish to hang just a little bit longer to see what happens tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow is UK Unemployment, Thursday Australian Unemployment data.

If you need to move any funds internationally I am here to assist with a rate which I am positive will save you money over the competition plus offer assistance with the timing and planning of any deal as well. For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk