Tag Archives: sterling

Will the pound to Australian dollar rate rise or fall on the UK election?

Most reports suggest the pound is likely to rise if Theresa May wins a strong majority in the UK election on June 8th. Potentially this could see GBPAUD busting through the 1.80 level but there are of course never any guarantees with the currency markets! I am of the impression that expectations for sterling have actually been set too high and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound coming under pressure. I do actually feel the 1.70 level could be in focus and that after a few tricky weeks for AUD sellers the trend will now actually favour selling AUD for sterling, although of course we are unlikely to see a return to quite the same rates as we had earlier in the year.

The polls currently show Labour winning many more seats than previously expected which would see the Tory majority increase but not perhaps by as much as many believed some weeks ago. The general impression is of course a Tory and Theresa May win but, with the market pricing in a larger Tory win than expected the risk to me is to the downside, ie sterling could fall.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making some plans around this historic event is clear wise. We are here to help with an exchange rate I am positive will save you money over other options but also offer support and information for any transfer you might be planning. Understanding how the banks operate and the processes involved to transfer funds can save you lots of time and hassle.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I have worked as a specialist currency broker for close to ten years. If you need to move money overseas I am very confident a conversation with me will help provide some insight and could well save you thousands through a better rate and information on when to execute any transaction.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk briefly outlining your position and preferably providing a contact number to discuss your position through thoroughly.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing form you.

Factors impacting GBPAUD exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

In recent months the Australian dollar has been losing ground against sterling for a few reasons. Firstly Iron ore prices, Australia’s largest export an a commodity that Australia heavily rely on has been falling in value. Last week Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports rose 1.7% to a record 134.25 million tons as of Friday, according to weekly data from Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co. With reports suggestions China are having a slow down these stock piles continue to rise which in turn would have a negative impact on iron ore prices. Secondly the UK Prime Minister called for a snap election which also provided strength for the pound as a Conservative majority is likely which in turn would give the PM more power when negotiating Brexit.

However recent poor UK economic data has stopped the pound for making any further gains against the Australian dollar. The Bank of England have announced inflation is outpacing wage growth which is real problem for the UK public, however the Bank of England are not in the position to raise interest rates which would combat the inflation pressures.

Looking ahead I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Australian dollar continue to devalue as the FED are likely to raise interest rates in the upcoming months which would lead to a sell off of Australian dollars to buy US dollars and the also the problem with Iron ore is not going away. As for the UK as soon as the General Election is over Brexit negations will be in full swing.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research have exclaimed Brexit negotiations could cause major swings for sterling exchange rates.  They told their clients they believe sterling’s good run is coming to an end. Personally I think it is impossible to predict how Brexit negotiations will unravel therefore gambling on this could go either way.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade Australian dollars at rates better than other brokerages and high street banks. I would recommend sending an email with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 0044 1494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Pound to Aussie Dollar rate continues to fall over UK economic outlook concerns, will the downward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Aussie Dollar exchange rate fell into the 1.73’s earlier today as the downward pressure upon the Pound continued.

Despite still trading in the 1.70’s the GBP/AUD pair has fallen from its 8-month high as the currency is falling against all major currency pairs, with the drop against some currencies being steeper than others with GBP/EUR’s fall down to a 5-week low bring one of the standout movers.

The main reason for the softening to Sterling’s value can be attributed to the Inflation rate within the UK and its knock on effects.

The rate of Inflation has risen to its highest level since September 2013 and this is significant as it’s come at a time when UK wage growth is stagnating. Inflation is growing at a higher rate than wage growth which is likely to negatively impact consumer spending within the UK, which is an important aspect of the UK economy.

This situation looks gloomy for the Pound moving forward as the Bank of England has ruled out a rate hike in the short term future, especially with a general election just around the corner.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GBP/AUD rate dip below 1.70 in the short term future, unless there’s a reversal in the steep rise of living costs within the UK.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPAUD hits 1.70! What next?

The pound to Australian rate has hit the 1.70 mark as investors embrace Theresa May’s plans to call a snap General election. Expectations for the pound are now very much positive as investors find answers to some of the questions of uncertainty which have been plaguing the pound in the last few weeks and months. This is not just a story about the pound, of course, the Australian dollar has fallen back as the RBA indicate what many of us suspected some time ago, further interest rate cuts down the line are a real possibility.

GBPAUD could now move much higher as some of the previous reasons to hold on to Australian dollars evaporate. Expectations for the Australian dollar to move higher have been largely hampered in recent weeks as a mixed bag of economic data and a stronger pound makes life difficult for Australian dollar sellers. If you have Australian dollars to sell and are hoping for big improvements you might need to remind yourself of just how much the market has improved for you since the Referendum! With over 40 cents between the high and the low Australian dollar sellers are now at some of the best rates they have had since 2013!

GBPAUD could now well rise further, particularly since the likelihood is Theresa May will win the election with a very large majority. The overall expectation for the rates is that we could now easily test 1.80 in the next 4 weeks. If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then making some plans in advance is vital to the understanding of where rates might head.

We could now be about to break into some very much fresh ranges and any clients with an expectation to buy or sell the Australian dollar should be doing what they can to plan in advance for future volatility. If you have a transfer to make and wish to get an overview of the market and receive some updates and news on what might be happening please feel free to get in touch directly with me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect next on GBPAUD rates?

The pound to Australian dollar rate has improved further to the highs seen in January almost touching 1.66. There is some important economic data due out today which could easily change the picture on the rates with UK Industrial and Manufacturing data due at 09.30 am and then an estimate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at midday. If you are looking to buy Australian dollars you are currently 7 cents higher than the lows that were established below 1.60 earlier this year.

With markets now eagerly awaiting the latest news on the UK economy the big challenges ahead will be the extent to which the UK weathers any poor economic data or the likelihood of any interest rate hike or cut in Australia. Recent comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate that a cut is more likely which could present yet further opportunities for Aussie buyers in the future.

With the market squarely focused on the US too, economic data today could trigger some movements on the Australian dollar. Any speculation the US might be looking to raise interest rates sooner than expected could weaken the Australian dollar as investors sell off Aussies and increase their holdings of the US dollar. The key US data is Unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll data at 13.30 UK time, it will be closely watched by investors and could easily trigger some movements on the GBPAUD rate.

GBPAUD is up at some of the highest levels we have had since January which is presenting a great opportunity for Australian dollar buyers. If you have a transfer to make in the coming days and weeks these rates will not be around for long. To discuss the latest trends and themes which will move your exchange rate please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Australian Dollar feeling the pinch as Antipodean currencies have a poor start to the week (Daniel Wright)

So far the Australian Dollar has not had the greatest start  to the weeks trading, seeing losses against the Pound and  Sterling has pushed above and through the 1.65 (0.6060) mark today.

It does appear that the trend for AUD/GBP has now turned around a little, however the next 24 hours will be key for where it heads next with article 50 (the start of the brexit process) officially being triggered in the U.K tomorrow.

This will be a key factor for anyone looking to carry out a currency exchange involving either the Pound or Australian Dollar, as it will effectively start divorce proceedings between the U.K and the EU.

Global risk appetite appears to have fallen away a little too, as Antipodean and commodity based currencies such as the Australian Dollar have been on the decline for almost a week now.

My view for a while now is that I see currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar having a poor run in the coming weeks, as there is so much uncertainty around the world which  may lead to  a reversal of what is known as carry trading.

Carry trading is where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate and moves it into a currency with a higher interest rate, making a return on the difference. With higher interest rates the Australian Dollar is regularly used for carry trading and in times of global uncertainty you can see it weaken quite considerable as the carry trades are sold back and demand for the Australian Dollar declines.

If you have the need to exchange Australian Dollars in the near future and you are looking to secure not only the best rate of exchange but to time it well too then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally to explain the various options available to you.

 

 

Australian Dollar Forecast

The impact of Article 50 on the Australian Dollar vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

How will the Pound be affected by Article 50 has been a question that I have been asked constantly over the last few days and with just a few days to go before Article 50 is formally triggered we will soon know the answer.

Sterling has had a very positive week vs the Australian Dollar but could that be driven by investors looking to make some short term gains before the uncertainty as to what may happen next week?

My personal expectation is that the uncertainty as to what will happen over the next 2 years as negotiations start to take place is likely to cause problems for the Pound.

With 27 European member states likely to make the talks difficult and protracted I don’t see why we should see any positive moves for Sterling at least for the time being.

There is an argument to suggest that the value of Sterling against the Australian Dollar has been kept at these low levels for some time as the trigger of Article 50 has been priced in but I think there are further losses to occur for Sterling next week.

The accompanying press statement by Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to cause huge swings for GBPAUD exchange rates as people try to second guess what they think will happen and it depends on her rhetoric.

Clearly she’ll try to reflect a positive stance but I think the Pound will struggle against the Australian Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re thinking of making a currency transfer and want to avoid the uncertainty of what may happen by the middle of the week it may be worth buying your currency beforehand.

If you don’t have the full availability of funds at the moment you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date of a small deposit.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates and help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

GBP/AUD exchange rate hovering at pivotal point of 1.60 – Where will rates head next? (Daniel Wright)

GBP/AUD exchange rates have been loitering around the 1.60 mark for a number of days now and it appears that neither currency has the power to push through the current levels of resistance and make a break either way.

With Brexit and the triggering of article 50 clearly hanging over the head of the Pound the Australian Dollar has been on a very good run of form, seeing a huge boost last Wednesday when the Federal Reserve over in the U.S hiked interest rates but only gave the nod to a further two interest rate hikes this year as opposed to the expectation of seeing a further three.

Interest rate hikes in the U.S are generally seen as negative for the Australian Dollar as it makes the USD more attractive to investors. With the Australian Dollar and U.S Dollar a well known pairing that is used in carry trading, should either have news that makes it more attractive the other can suffer and you tend to see a large flow of money from one to the other very rapidly.

For those who are not aware, carry trading is a process where an investor borrows money in a currency with a very low interest rate (e.g USD) and shifts it to one with a much larger one (e.g AUD), making a difference on the two. When Australian economic data is poor or the U.S has some good news, you tend to see what is known as the ‘unwinding’ of carry trades, leading to the Australian Dollar weakening and the U.S Dollar gaining strength due to supply and demand.

Personally, I feel that the 1.60 rate will not be hanging around much longer and I would not be surprised to see a rise for the Pound, although be wary of Sterling getting the jitters in the next week or so as we close in on article 50 being triggered on 29th March, this is the official start of the process of the U.K leaving the EU.

For anyone with a large currency exchange to make, either involving buying or selling Australian Dollars it is imperative that you have a proactive and knowledgeable currency broker on your side throughout these turbulent times.

If you would like my assistance then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and I will be more than happy to get in touch to discuss the various options available to you in simple terms. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Will the Pound to Aussie Dollar rate fall below 1.60? (Joseph Wright)

A quick look at a GBP/AUD chart over the past 6 months will make it clear that the 1.60 level has acted as a key psychological level for some time now.

Since November of last year the GBP/AUD pair have bounced off of 1.60 around 4 times, and even in October of last year when the Pound came under huge pressure the rate only dipped into the 1.59’s for a short while before recovering back to levels above the key 1.60 mark.

Personally I think that a number of factors could reverse the direction of GBP/AUD, and I think 1.60 could remain a support level for the Pound with the pair likely to approach 1.70 once the Brexit is underway.

At present I think the markets are awaiting the certainty the invocation of Article 50 will give financial markets, which will in turn boost Sterling’s value. I’m also expecting to see the strongly performing Aussie Dollar lose some value should the US Fed Reserve Bank begin hiking interest rates as is planned in the US, as a higher yielding Dollar will likely limit demand for the high yielding Aussie Dollar.

Aussie Dollar sellers are in the fortunate position of being able to convert their currency into Pounds at around 3 year highs. Those planning on selling AUD for GBP are able to improve on their outcome even further as our currency brokerage offers exchange rates that improve on those offered by the high street banks, therefore our clients receive more Pounds for the Aussie Dollars through us.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the strong Australian economy continue to boost the Aussie Dollars value? (Joseph Wright)

The downward trend for the Pound to Australian Dollar looks likely to continue as the Australian economy is continuing to go from strength to strength.

Against many other major currencies the Pound hasn’t fared badly so far in 2017, for example the Pound last week hit its highest level against the Euro so far in 2017.

The Pound’s performance against the Australian Dollar on the other hand has been disappointing as it’s lost almost 5% since the beginning of the year. I personally put this down to Australian Dollar strength as the currency has been boosted by rising commodity prices as well as a strong economy.

In the early hours of this morning the health of Australia’s economy was once again underlined as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP for the 4th quarter grew at 2.4%, and this figure was above the expectation of 1.9% analysts were expecting to see.

The GBP/AUD pair has been range bound between 1.60 and 1.70 for a while now but in recent weeks the pair have remained closer to the closer end of that trend, and I do think that if Brexit jitters in the UK increase and the Aussie economy remains on track I can see the pair fall below 1.60.

There has also been some better than expected data out of China in recent weeks which has boosted the Aussie due to the close business relationship between China and Australia.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Australian Dollar, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.