Tag Archives: sterling

A quiet week for economic data however Australian Dollar exchange rates will no doubt remain volatile (Daniel Wright)

So this week we have very little out in terms of economic data for the market to feed off of, however do not let that fool you into thinking that we are going to have a flat market over the course of the week.

Last night we saw the U.S debates between Trump and Clinton and it appears that =Clinton came out on top which led to a little strength for the Australian Dollar due to riskier currencies coming back into fashion.

One of the key things to look out for, on top of commodity prices and general risk appetite is what we see happen in the U.S elections. Should Clinton remain out in the clear then we may see further Australian Dollar strength however you must be aware that if we do suddenly start to see Trump charge ahead then perceived ‘riskier’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar will be likely to weaken… As investors and speculators will be fairly likely to panic if Trump does start to look like he may win.

We have U.K growth figures out on Friday morning which will be the main driver for GBP/AUD exchange rates towards the end of this week but asides from that the key focus will be changes in commodity prices, news from China, U.S election and general risk appetite.

If you are looking to buy or sell Australian Dollars and you would like to achieve the very best rate of exchange for your transfers then it is well worth getting in contact with us directly. We can generally better any other brokerage out there and we like to think our customer service is much better too. Feel free to get in contact with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.

Brexit worries and risk adverse attitudes keep GBP/AUD below 1.70, will the Pound continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has remained below the 1.70 mark once again today, as Brexit concerns continue to weigh on the Pounds value.

Markets have been quiet today anyway as many wait in anticipation for this evenings first US Presidential debate which is bound to be a talking point tomorrow and I wouldn’t rule out it’s effects within foreign exchange markets.

As markets await this evening there has been a lack of risk appetite and risk taking within markets as daily trading ranges are thin, and commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar have weakened off slightly.

Today’s slight weakening of the Aussie Dollar is in contrast with last week, as the Aussie Dollar quietly gained throughout the week and ended up being one of the weeks best performers. Attention was off the currency last week as a number of other major economies were under the spotlight as the US Fed, Bank of Japan and RBNZ all made interest rate decisions, and whilst this was going on AUD quietly outperformed which is why we are looking at a mid-market level below 1.70.

There is a lot of downward pressure on the Pound at the moment as negative sentiment surrounds the UK economy.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

GBP/AUD exchange rate likely to be driven by US FED’s tone later today (Joseph Wright)

The GBP/AUD pair have remained range-bound for some time now, although there does appear to be a bias towards the downside as we’re seeing the Pound weaken on almost a daily basis at the moment.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia beginning to adopt a more bullish attitude the probability of another interest rate cut from them again this year has dropped down to 30% according to major bank Danske Bank. This coupled with the Bank of England’s likelihood of cutting rates once again in the UK is why I feel there is potential for further falls for GBP/AUD.

Aside from the UK’s and Australia’s own monetary policy plans, the GBP/AUD exchange rate’s direction is currently also being influenced by the US Fed Reserve Banks monetary policy plans.

It’s likely that when interest rates are increased in the US, the Pound will gain on the Aussie as at the moment the Australian Dollar has been benefiting as many investors worldwide wish to hold funds in AUD due to the high interest rates offered by Aussie banks.

Once rates increase in the US I’m expecting the Pound to gain value on the AUD, as deposits will likely switch from AUD to USD which will weaken the Aussie.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

The Pound loses further ground against the Aussie Dollar, with further falls a possibility (Joseph Wright)

The GBP/AUD exchange rate has dropped back below the 1.7500 mark today we’ve seen the Pound sold off across the board.

After hitting it’s best levels for some time just yesterday we’ve seen quite a steep sell-off during today’s trading session, and this has been triggered by what I would imagine to be profit taking as is quite usual on a Friday afternoon within the UK. There hasn’t been any UK specific data released to prompt today’s sell-off so I’d imagine that profit taking is behind it.

As a currency broker for one of the UK’s largest specialist currency brokers I have felt a decline in positive sentiment towards the Pound over the past week or so, as the hard data out of the UK hasn’t fallen in line with the recent business surveys (Purchasing Managers Index surveys), in the sense that the surveys were particularity bullish whereas the hard data released has disappointed and this has been reflected within currency markets as we’re seeing the Pound fall against a basket of major currencies after rising off the back of the surveys.

The Aussie Dollar has been under some pressure of its own as like with the Canadian and New Zealand Dollar, the commodity currencies price movement will be determined by whether the US raise Interest Rates. If rates increase in the US I along with many economists am expecting a fall in the Aussie Dollar, so Aussie Dollar sellers should be aware of this relationship between the two.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling rises against the Australian Dollar after UK bank holiday (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made gains vs the Australian Dollar during today’s trading session as the UK economy opened for business again following the bank holiday weekend.

There has been little economic data published today so the market is probably still reacting to UK economic releases including GDP and Retail Sales from last week.

Australian retail sales are due for release on Thursday but arguably the biggest catalyst for movement is likely to come on Friday afternoon when the US announces non-farm payroll data which measures unemployment levels for the world’s leading economy.

With the Federal Reserve gearing up for a potential interest rate hike in the near future if the data comes out positive it could force the Fed’s hand which could cause Australian Dollar weakness.

My reasoning is that if the US increase interest rates then this could potentially encourage investors to sell Australian Dollars in favour of US Dollars as a more attractive yield.

Indeed, although interest rates are still lower in the US than in Australia ultimately if the economy is doing well then this could weaken the AUD creating some potentially better opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Interest Rate cuts likely this week in both the UK and Australia, with a busy week expected for GBP/AUD (Joseph Wright)

I’m expecting a much busier week then usual for GBP/AUD exchange rates this week, as important monetary decisions are set for release in both the UK and Australia.

At the time of writing the inter-bank level is 1.7416 which is around the same level that the pair have been trading for a couple of weeks now. I think this week could be the first time in almost a month that we see the pair break out of their current trading range of between 1.70 to 1.80, a range it’s been trading within pretty much since the ‘Brexit’.

The sooner of the two potential Interest Rate decisions could come out of Australia in the early hours of tomorrow morning (UK time). It’s widely expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut Interest Rates down to 1.5% as the RBA has previously expressed concerns over low inflation and the lack of growth within the Australian economy.

The last time that Australia cut their Interest Rate Sterling gained roughly 10 cents vs AUD, although I’m not expecting such a significant move this time around as markets are generally expecting the cut.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England are set to make their decision on Thursday, and it’s widely expected that the rate will be cut down to 0.25% from its current level of 0.5%.

Outside of this weeks potential volatility for GBP/AUD exchange rates I’m expecting the Pound to gradually decline as economic data released post ‘Brexit’ offers a grim picture of the UK’s economy moving forward.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving GBP and AUD it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joe) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will the RBA cut interest rates next week? (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has come under a little bit of pressure recently against the Pound as inflation results for the Australian economy came in overnight at 1% compared to the expectation of 1.3%.

Inflation has been struggling down under recently and with prices not rising this is likely to impact the health of the economy going forward. The target for Australia is between 2%-3% and this is only the third time since 1996 that the target has not been met.

Usually falling inflation results in a central bank looking to cut interest rates and this could happen when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week on 2nd August.

With interest rates at historically low levels in Australia any further interest rate cuts could cause the AUD to weaken which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling.

However, also next week the Bank of England meeting takes place on 4th August and there is a wide expectation that the BoE may look at cutting rates themselves or even increasing the volume of Quantitative Easing, both of which could be detrimental to the strength of Sterling.

If you’re concerned about what may happen to GBPAUD exchange rates over the next few weeks it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Will Sterling improve against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have started to fightback against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar as Theresa May will be replacing current Prime Minister David Cameron on Wednesday.

Theresa May was initially expecting a 9 week leadership campaign but Andrea Leadsom chose to withdraw which gave May a clear run.

Politically this has been taken well as it allows a bit of certainty to return to the markets and with May such a seasoned politician she is probably more likely to have the gravitas needed to settle things down.

Down under Malcolm Turnbull has been given another term and typically this would have helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar further against Sterling but the Pound has recovered owing to the change in leadership in the UK.

Indeed, the Pound has suffered huge losses since the Brexit vote by as much as 30 cents against the Australian Dollar and could Theresa May coming in be the catalyst for a recovery in Sterling exchange rates?

Later this week however the Pound is likely to come under further pressure when the Bank of England meets to discuss monetary policy. Governor of the central bank Mark Carney was a huge supporter of remaining in the European Union and he has suggested since that the UK could look at cutting interest rates or Quantitative Easing in the near future.

Personally, I think it would be too early to look at change monetary policy just yet so if there is no change we could see Sterling make gains vs the Australian Dollar. Arguably it will be the minutes published immediately after the announcement that are likely to cause volatility for GBPAUD exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Sterling spikes after May is announced as new PM, more good news to follow? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates spiked upward across the board just after lunchtime today as Andrea Leadsom, who was Theresa May’s biggest rival for both the role of Prime Minister and as the new leader of the Conservative Party here in the UK, stepped down allowing Theresa May to accept the positions.

Mrs May announced that she was “honoured and humbled” to be the new PM-in-waiting and markets received the news well. The Pound moved upwards across the board due to what I believe is more political certainty, something markets almost always receive well, and also the fact that May was a ‘remainer’ in the lead-up to the EU Referendum may instill some confidence in investors, as although many were happy to see the ‘Brexit’, currency markets didn’t with the Pound plummeting in the immediate aftermath of the vote. The term ‘Soft Brexit’ is doing the rounds on financial media which would explain my thinking on this matter.

Later this week on Thursday the Monetary Policy committee will be outlining monetary policy moving forward, and many are expecting an interest rate cut down from 0.5% to 0.25%.

Should this occur, and some economists have the figure down for a 74% chance of a rate cut which is up from 11% before the Referendum result, then I think we can expect to see the Pound fall further and wipe away today’s gains for example.

At the same time, if there isn’t an interest rate hike this could bode well for the Pound and may suggest that the economy hasn’t been hit as badly as many have envisioned, which could boost the rate of exchange for GBP/AUD.

Those with an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and Aussie Dollar may wish to get in contact with me (Joe) regarding strategies and how best to time the trade. Our specialist currency exchange brokerage doesn’t offer financial advice but we do assist our clients with the timing of their trades based on price targets and historical data such as annual and daily highs and lows.

If you would like to discuss your currency exchange with me, and would like to consider taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading regulated currency brokerages, feel free to email me directly ideally with a telephone number on jxw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your requirement. You can also call me directly on 01494 787 478, just ask one of the reception team for Joe.

Sterling falling against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

Sterling has continued to fall against the Australian Dollar and we have already seen a big fall this morning for Pound Sterling exchange rates.

Since the Brexit Sterling has fallen by over 10% against the Australian Dollar and today Bank of England governor Mark Carney will announce his most recent Financial Stability report.

I expect the focus to be on potential risks to the UK economy caused by the uncertainty of the EU referendum and any mention of a potential interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could cause problems for the Pound.

UK construction data came in at its lowest level in 7 years during June compared to the month before with a figure of 46 compared to 51.2 in May. Anything below 50 shows contraction and such a low figure has caused a big lack of confidence in Sterling.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 1.75% last night which was expected owing to the uncertainty of what is happening politically in Australia at the moment.

With the Australians experiencing a hung parliament at the moment according to legislation they have now 13 days before they have to form a new government.

Typically when this sort of issues occurs this will often weaken the currency involved but at the moment the currency markets are focusing on Sterling’s weakness caused by the Brexit fallout rather than specific economic data.

Australia is one of the few nations that has maintained its AAA credit rating and this could be at risk if the country does not settle itself politically but generally speaking I think things will sort themselves out during the next fortnight.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.