Tag Archives: sterling

Sterling rallies against the Australian Dollar as Brexit looks less likely (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has risen dramatically over the last few days as the most recent opinion poll published by YouGov has shown that the Remain camp are leading with 44% of the vote compared to the Leave camp with 43% with the rest currently undecided.

Clearly the vote is too close to call but this change in sentiment has helped to strengthen the Pound against all major currencies including the Australian Dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced their latest set of minutes last night and there was no sign of an interest rate cut coming which has put a stop to Sterling’s rise against the Australian Dollar.

However, the main driver of exchange rates is down to the sentiment surrounding the EU referendum due to be held on Thursday with the votes due to be published on Friday morning.

I think if we see a Remain vote winning then I would expect Sterling to break past 2 against the Australian Dollar so if you’re looking to sell Australian Dollars into Sterling it may be worth trying to organise this prior to the result at the end of this week.

However, ultimately the vote is democratic and will be decided by the public so until the result is announced we could see big swings on the currency markets between Sterling and Australian Dollars so it is important that you’re in contact with your currency broker.

I have personally worked in the industry since 2003 and I expect to see more volatility on exchange rates compared to the Scottish referendum and various general elections during this time.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBPAUD now comfortably trading above 2.00, further AUD weakness looks likely (Joseph Wright)

The current upward trend for GBP/AUD is yet to show any signs of slowing down, as once again today Sterling has far gained on the Aussie with the high of the trading day so far at 2.0388.

Sterling sellers are currently in a far better position now than just a few weeks ago as Sterling’s upward bounce has been significant and brought on due to a number of different factors.

The principle driver of GBP exchange rates presently is the predicted outcome of the EU Referendum next month. The relationship between the majority of GBP exchange rates and the predicted EU outcome is very straightforward, the less likely a ‘Brexit’ the stronger Sterling becomes and vice-versa.

The reason Sterling’s gains against the Aussie have been so magnified is become at the same time prominent UK bookies and pollsters are suggesting the ‘Remain’ campaign has gained a strong lead, members of the Reserve Bank of Australia have become increasing dovish regarding the economic outlook for Australia, whilst at the same time they’ve cut the Interest Rate down from 2.00% to 1.75% and hinted at further cuts in future, which has softened the Aussie’s value in general and particularly when compared with a surging Pound.

It’s worth noting that last night RBA Governor Glenn Stevens made it clear that the door is open for further monetary loosening in future, and his speech saw AUD exchange rates drop across the board.

Moving forward, I’m expecting Sterling’s gains to subside but I can see the pair leveling out and trading within the current range for some time. I think GBP/AUD 2.00 will act as a support and I don’t expect the pair to fall below 2.00 this month or next unless there’s a big swing in the ‘Brexit’ polls.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you plan to make involving Sterling and Aussie Dollars, feel free to contact me regarding my forecast. You can also take advantage of the high levels of security and award winning exchange rates offered by the specialist foreign exchange brokerage where I work, just email me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk or call me directly on 01494 787 478.

RBA governor to set the tone for the Australian Dollar vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates have remained above 2 apart from a small blip overnight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens will take centre stage when he addresses the markets about the recent policy decision made by the central bank.

The RBA cut interest rates earlier this month from 2% to 1.75% in an attempt to kick start the Australian economy which has seen signs of a slowdown recently.

The Chinese economy which is such an important part of the Australian economy has continued its recent slowdown and with commodity prices still relatively low this is causing problems for the economy down-under.

I think Glenn Stevens’ tone will be relatively dovish and he could even hint that the RBA may look to cut interest rates again in the future and this could see GBPAUD rates go in an upwards direction overnight.

The sticking point behind whether or not Sterling may strengthen further will come on Thursday when UK GDP figures are set for the release.

This is the second revision for the first quarter with the estimate at 0.4%. Anything different is likely to cause some volatility for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The beginning of a rebound for GBPAUD exchange rates? (Joseph Wright)

GBPAUD exchange rates have remained range bound throughout this week, and they’ve been trading within this range (between 1.83 to 1.86) since April the 13th.

There would appear to be some support for Sterling around the 1.83/1.84 mark, and I think that those waiting for the right time to sell their Aussie Dollars should pay close attention to that particular level, as it may present the best opportunity to make that conversion.

I’m of this opinion for a number of reasons, firstly as we’ve previously covered here on the blog, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens has previously highlighted the downsides to an overvalued currency to a recovering economy, and I think that there is a chance the RBA could take action in order to weaken AUD some time in future. Additionally the fears surrounding Britain’s political future moving forward are beginning to subside, at least that’s what the currency markets are suggesting as GBP has recovered a lot of lost ground on many of the major currency pairs this week.

When we look at the chart for GBPAUD this year the weakening of the Pound looks like it’s begun to slow down since the middle of March, this would suggest Sterling is finding some strength around these current levels, and personally I becoming a bit more bullish with regards to GBP moving forward and I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPAUD levels closer to 1.90 than 1.80 around the beginning of next month.

Sterling exchange rates have been dragged downwards this year mostly due to the upcoming EU Referendum on the 23rd of June, and as both the UK Government puts in overtime to sway the public into voting to remain in the EU, and the most recent polls are suggesting that the ‘remain’ camp is leading, Sterling exchange rates are beginning to show strength at a time when many haven’t expected it.

There’s no financial data to be released tomorrow that applies specifically to GBP or AUD, so I expect sentiment to continue to drive the GBPAUD exchange rate for the rest of the week. If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving GBP, AUD or both, it’s worth your time either calling me directly on 01494 725353 and asking for Joseph Wright, or alternatively you can email me directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk for my forecast, and taking advantage of award winning exchange rates from a regulated UK based currency brokerage.  

 

Australian Dollar continues to strengthen against Sterling even after Chinese GDP figures (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates have continued to fall during the course of the week even after the Chinese GDP figures showed a fall to 6.7%.

As China is Australia’s largest trading partner any slowdown in the world’s second largest economy often tends to weaken the Australian Dollar however the data has caused little movement on the GBPAUD rate.

This highlights the problems that Sterling is facing across the board and with just over 2 months to go before the UK holds the EU referendum on whether to stay or leave the European Union this is causing a huge loss in confidence for Sterling exchange rates.

The Bank of England has also recently warned that the EU vote is likely to harm future growth and BoE governor Mark Carney has stated that the possibility of Britain leaving the EU was the ‘biggest domestic risk to financial stability.’

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia meet to announce their latest set of minutes and any hints of a potential rate cut could see the AUD weaken but for the time being whilst the UK economy is dominated by the uncertainty of a potential Brexit this could see Sterling slip even further against the Australian Dollar providing some very good opportunities to sell AUD into Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will GBPAUD keep rising for now?

Sterling to Australian dollar exchange rates have risen from the recent lows as sterling finally finds some bounce and investors are reminded that it is not all bad news for the UK. Tata Steel has possibly been saved and David Cameron doesn’t look like he is going to be resigning anytime soon. The prospect of further news on the currency markets moving sterling exchange rates much higher does seem limited since any gains for the pound will be hampered by the political uncertainty up ahead. I think therefore the best strategy for anyone buying Australian dollars is to buy on the spikes in your favour as a sudden sharp return to favour seems in my opinion unlikely. The Australian dollar is being supported by improvements in the Chinese economy and the worst fears not being realised, there has been a real boom in commodity prices and the worst fears over a Chinese economic crisis have so far failed to materialise.

The big news for the Australian dollar this week is the Unemployment news being released this Thursday and then Chinese GDP released on Friday morning. All in all the expectations are for this currency pairing to remain between 1.80 and 1.90, I think if you are looking to buy Australian dollars a rate at the higher end of 1.90 is about as much as you can expect. I would personally expect rates next month of between 1.70 and 1.80 as the full fears of the Brexit become very apparent!

If you have an Australian dollar transaction to consider making plans in advance is sensible to avoid the risk of further unexpected moves making your transaction more expensive. Please email the author Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

GBPAUD Gains After Poor Australian Construction Data

Sterling gained on the Aussie Dollar by almost 1% today, offering Sterling sellers the first opportunity in a while to purchase Aussie Dollar’s on a day when the rate moved in their favor.

Personally I haven’t found today’s movement surprising, as trend lines never move in straight lines and yesterday the Pound hit a twelve month low vs the Aussie Dollar, and therefore it’s not unusual to see traders bargain hunting as soon as a currency pair fall through a previous support level.

Market speculators looking to make a quick buck wasn’t the only factor working against AUD today, earlier Australian Construction PMI disappointed, with the figure suggesting that the construction sector in Australia is actually contracting and this was met negatively by the market.

I still believe that GBPAUD is within a long term downtrend, and could fall further presenting Aussie sellers with further gains if they decide to hold on a short while longer. But anyone interested in the pair should pay very close attention to interest rate decisions made by both the RBA and the US Fed, as the Australian Dollar is highly sensitive to suggestions of policy changes, let alone actual decisions.

If anyone with an upcoming currency requirement involving both GBP and AUD would like to discuss the effects of interest rate decisions on the pair, I’ll be happy to share both my own opinion and the general feel within the marketplace with them, just email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I’ll be happy to discuss my forecast with you, and the ease at which we facilitate currency conversions here in our specialist foreign exchange brokerage.

Australian Dollar continues to strengthen vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

GBPAUD exchange  rates have continued to move in a negative direction as the UK has experienced a very difficult week both politically and with the economy.

The release of the information from Panama has caused political instability for the UK with many companies using bank accounts over there to keep money away from the UK in order to avoid paying tax.

With the government also paying £9m for ‘Remain’ leaflets to send to British homes his credibility has been knocked and this has had a negative impact on the Pound.

The next big move for Sterling vs Australian Dollar exchange rates will come at some point today when the Chinese release data concerning their foreign exchange reserves.

China has taken a different approach to the western economies by trying to spend itself out of trouble during last year and it appears to have been working according to a recent survey.

As many as 1400 companies surveyed were much more positive and this has been reflected with recent Australian Dollar strength vs Sterling.

If this data release concerning Chinese foreign exchange reserves is positive I think we could see further losses for Sterling vs the Australian Dollar creating even better opportunities to sell AUD into Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Aussie Dollar Rises After A Quiet Day’s Trading

The Australian Dollar rose slightly yesterday, as it usually does during times of low volume when markets are impacted by holidays.

The boost in AUD’s value was mainly due to weakness in the US Dollar as the Atlanta Fed published it’s ‘GDP Now’ figures which disappointed after the figure was cut from 1.4% to 0.6%.

As news coming out of the region is thin at present I’m expecting today’s speech by Janet Yellen, the chairlady of the Fed, at 4.20pm GMT time to provide some direction for the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar and I think AUD could benefit further should Janet Yellen adopt a dovish tone. There have been mixed messages from the Fed as of late so I’m hoping that the Fed Chairlady is more straightforward with her opinion on the state of the US economy moving forward.

With regards to the Pound I think ‘Brexit’ fears will continue to weigh on its value, and unless oil prices take another significant nosedive I’m not expecting AUD to lose ground on GBP as the pair are mostly driven by sentiment at the moment with Sterling coming off worse.

Those looking to sell Australian Dollars in order to purchase British Pounds may wish to take advantage of current levels, as since the beginning of the year the Aussie Dollar has strengthened considerably. For how long the pair trade at around current levels of 1.88 – 1.92 I think depends on the outcome of the UK’s upcoming EU referendum, and I’m expecting GBP to spike upwards should the British public opt to stay within the EU.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving GBP or AUD it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Sterling Australian Dollar rates under huge pressure in the run up to the EU referendum (Tom Holian)

We have already seen big falls for GBPAUD rates during the last few months with exchange rates over 30 cents lower than they were at their highest point back in December.

Sterling has had an extremely difficult period against all major currencies and in particular against the Australian Dollar.

Whilst the Eurozone has cut interest rates to 0%, printed another EUR20bn per month and the UK keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future the Australian Dollar with a much higher yield has been the real benefactor as of late.

The EU referendum is just less than 3 months away now and this has caused investor confidence in the Pound to drop as the uncertainty of whether the UK will look at leaving the European Union has meant that overseas investment in the Pound has been significantly reduced.

The ‘Leave’ campaign for the UK has also gathered momentum during the last month.

Although the Chinese economy has also started to falter during this period this would typically weaken the Australian Dollar as China is their biggest trading partner.

However, the plight of China also goes to highlight the global slowdown and reinforces the problems that the UK is facing.

Chancellor George Osborne recently downgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast for 2016 from 2.4% to 2% and with Retail Sales much lower than expected last week Sterling has really struggled as of late.

On Thursday UK GDP data is published and if we see a revision lower we could see GBPAUD rates fall further towards the end of next week.

Therefore, if you need to buy Australian Dollars during the next few weeks you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk