Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Chinese GDP falls but Brexit talks may be extended so Pound gains vs the Australian Dollar are limited

Overnight the world’s second largest economy China confirmed that it grew at its slowest quarterly rate in ten years as the problems of the US-China Trade Wars appear to be having an impact on the economy.

According to official sources the previous quarter showed growth of 6.5% compared to the year before and this was short of the forecast figure of 6.6%.

However, although the headline figure is clearly a concern for the country it was still in line with the government’s target for this year of 6.5%.

Typically this would result in Australian Dollar weakness as China is their largest trading partner so any slow down will often result in problems for the Aussie Dollar.  However, as we have seen during the course of this week the Pound has faced some problems owing to the roadblock concerning the latest Brexit talks which appear not to have gone anywhere at this week’s EU summit.

Indeed, the latest news appears to be that the parties involved are looking to extend the current time lines in order to ensure a smoother Brexit. The European Union has offered to extend the amount of time needed for the post-transitional period for the UK.

This has caused the Pound to come to a bit of a brick wall in terms of making further advances against the Australian Dollar and next month’s Brexit summit appears to have been cancelled for the time being.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years and I’m confident that with my experience I can help you with both the timing of your transfer of Australian Dollars as well as being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank.

Please send me an email with your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Could the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar after RBA minutes and EU Summit this week?

The Reserve Bank of Australia published their latest set of minutes which confirmed interest rates would be kept on hold for the time being which has led the Pound to hit 1.85 against the Australian Dollar overnight leading to some excellent opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds this week.

With property prices starting to fall in both Sydney and Melbourne the RBA’s tone was rather cautious. Indeed, property fell by 6% in Sydney and 4% in Melbourne, which have previously been the best two performing markets in recent years.

The central bank went on to warn the markets that the trade policies between the US and China could continue to cause potential negativity for the Australian economy but that as Australian growth is at 3% the economy is still relatively robust.

However, as house prices are falling and wages are not going up that quickly this is why interest rates in Australia are not likely to be going up anytime soon and predictions are that the next interest rate hike may not come until 2020.

Meanwhile, the Pound is being affected by what is happening with the latest Brexit discussions and with the EU summit due to start tomorrow and conclude on Thursday the main topic will be that of the Irish border issue which appears to be far from getting sorted.

Previously, the discussions were due to end by this particular meeting but with an emergency Brexit summit planned for next month we may not see the talks concluding positively this week so be prepared for a lot of volatility coming in the next few days if you’re planning a currency transfer involving the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

Outlook for Pound Sterling vs the Australian Dollar rates and could we see 1.90 before the end of this month?

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has seen some very positive movements over the last few weeks and this has caused GBPAUD exchange rates to hit the best level to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds for over two years when the Brexit vote took place in June 2016.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned of the risks that the Australian economy is facing over the issue of the trade wars between the US and China and at the moment this issue is still rumbling on with no signs of dissipating.

Chinese stock markets have fallen by over 20% in the year to date and as China is such a large trading partner for Australia any signs of a slowdown can really harm the value of the Australian Dollar and this is one of the reasons for the weakness of the Australian Dollar recently.

Signs coming from the Brexit talks are that things are getting relatively close to reaching a conclusion and it appears, at least for the moment, that a deal may be reached fairly soon which has helped to support the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is due in Brussels on Monday and hopes are that he is there to try and tie up a deal but I cannot see this happening just yet.

Indeed, the EU summit will be held on Wednesday for two days and there is a hope that a deal may be reached and if so we could see a very volatile period coming up for anyone thinking about moving Sterling either to buy or sell Australian Dollars.

Following this summit there is another meeting planned for November and I think this is when a deal between both the UK and the European Union will be reached and this could give Sterling the momentum it has been looking for to continue upwards vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months involving Australian Dollars then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound hits 2 year high to buy Australian Dollars (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has continued to weaken against both the Pound and the US Dollar recently as investors have begun to bypass the Australian Dollar as interest rates down under appear to be staying the same for the foreseeable future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% again this month and they have not changed interest rates in two years and with the US continuing to hike interest rates the Australian Dollar has been sold off in favour of the US Dollar and this has weakened the AUD against a number of different currencies including Sterling.

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar is now trading at its best level to buy Australian Dollars since the Brexit vote back in June 2016 and the question really is how long will this rally for Sterling last?

Clearly the Pound is under a lot of pressure at the moment with the ongoing uncertainty caused by the Brexit talks but the sentiment appears to have been softening recently towards the UK and rumours are that the talks could be concluded by next month.

If this does happen we could see the Pound make even further gains as this will provide investors with more certainty as to what to expect moving forward and encourage them to invest into the UK.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the negative effects caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China.  As China is Australia’s largest trading partner any problems in the second largest economy will often have negative effects on the value of the Australian Dollar and I think this could continue to harm the economy and therefore cause further Australian Dollar weakness for the Pound.

I have worked in the foreign exchange markets for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for over 15 years and with my experience I’m confident that not only can I save you money when exchanging Australian Dollars but also help you with the various options available to you.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling hits 2 year high vs the Australian Dollar as Brexit talks progress (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has now hit its best level in over two years as the Brexit talks appear to be gathering pace.

At the time of writing GBPAUD exchange rates have hit 1.85+ which is the best level since the day of the Brexit vote back in June 2016.

According to a number of different sources the Irish border issue appears to be getting closer to being resolved and we are just less than two weeks away from the EU summit due to take place on October 18th.

The main topic will clearly be what happens with the ongoing Brexit talks and with the Head of the EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker suggesting that if a deal is not reached this month it could be concluded next month the Pound has made some huge gains against a number of major currencies including the Australian Dollar which is great news for anyone looking to send money to Australia.

Meanwhile, with the US Federal Reserve having increased interest rates to 2.25% recently the disparity between what is available in terms of interest in Australia compared to that of the US now stands at 0.75% which is the biggest difference since the Australian Dollar was launched over thirty years ago.

In recent years the Australian Dollar has been the benefactor of higher interest rates compared to that available in many other western economies but with interest rates now higher in the US and also showing US GDP at 4% then global investors appear to be bypassing the Australian Dollar at the moment.

Indeed, the ongoing Trade Wars between the US and China do not appear to be slowing down and as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner any negative news will often affect the Australian Dollar and this is another reason for the GBPAUD exchange rate moving in an upwards direction at the moment.

I think a deal is fairly close to being agreed at the moment and if and when this happens I think it will provide the UK with some certainty going forward allowing the economy to know what to expect and I think this is why we could see GBPAUD exchange rates continue to go up if the talks progress positively in the next fortnight.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can also help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound collapses against the Australian Dollar after Brexit talks stall (Tom Holian)

The Pound collapsed against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar after a bad week politically for the UK.

The Pound began to drop on Thursday when the unofficial EU meeting didn’t go very well with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan put out by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She criticised the EU and said if they reject her plan then they will need to come up with a plan of their own. Clearly there is no plan coming at least in the short term and this uncertainty caused problems for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Even further losses came on Friday afternoon as Theresa May gave a statement on Brexit and confirmed that a second referendum will not be coming and that she is focused on making sure democracy will prevail. The markets weakened during the statement with GBAUD exchange rates falling below 1.80 after trading above this resistance level for a while.

The Australian Dollar was also given a boost after the Trump administration confirmed that they will not be putting tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

The Aussie Dollar has been under pressure recently caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this will often have a negative effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. However, as Trump has not included them in his latest weight throwing exercise this has helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen against Sterling.

The Australian economy had a further boost recently with credit ratings agency S&P upgrading Australia’s credit outlook from negative to stable for the first time in two years.

With the Australian trade surplus improving as well as record growth in employment this has been another reason for the fightback by the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As we go into next week the GBAUD is likely to be heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga so make sure you’re well prepared for some volatility ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make or would like further information as to what is happening to GBPAUD rates then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Could we see further gains for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar this week? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has continued to improve against the Australian Dollar creating the best level to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds since April which is a 5 month high.

The Australian Dollar has weakened owing to the ongoing threat of a trade war between the US and China and as China is such a large trading partner with Australia this is causing the Australian Dollar to weaken.

We also saw an improvement for Sterling during yesterday afternoon’s trading session following the comments made by EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier who suggested that a deal could be in place in the next 6-8 weeks.

However, as we saw what happened last week with GBPAUD exchange rates the comments sent the market up quickly but it then fell shortly afterwards.

Ultimately, the rate to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling is likely to be dominated in the next few weeks with the ongoing Brexit talks but the Trade Wars between the US and China are also causing big problems for the Australian Dollar.

Indeed, the US has threatened to impose further tariffs and have claimed they are ready to go and with China suggesting they may try to match the tariffs Dollar for Dollar this is clearly a big problem for global markets.

We have already seen the Pound make some huge gains vs a number of different commodity based currencies including the New Zealand Dollar and the South African Rand and with the Pound hitting 1.83+ against the AUD yesterday I think we could see further gains coming in the short term.

We have a big day coming on Thursday with Australia releasing the latest set of unemployment down under and this will be followed at midday by the latest Bank of England interest rate decision so be prepared for a volatile end to the week if you’re in the process of making a transfer involving Australian Dollars.

If you would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Short term opportunity to buy Australian Dollars caused by political change down under (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has come under a lot of pressure recently and has been one of the only currencies to have weakened vs the Pound in recent times.

The Aussie Dollar came under pressure caused by the recent news that Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as the new Australian Prime Minister.

Indeed, Turnbull became the fourth Australian leader in the last ten years to be removed from power by his own party.

An election down under must be called by next May and Morrison’s main task will be to unite the party again and to try and regain power for another term after it was suggested that Turnbull was losing his hold over the Australian electorate.

The issue for the Australia Dollar is that a currency does not often welcome a change of power as it causes a lot of uncertainty for the currency involved and this is one of the main reasons why we have seen GBPAUD exchange rates hit 1.76 last week creating some excellent opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds.

However, I think the AUD will start to fight back against the Pound very quickly as Sterling is under a lot of pressure caused by the ongoing Brexit talks which appear to be going very badly at the moment.

It appears as though we are getting nearer to a no-deal Brexit at the moment and this could be very negative for the Pound.

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab have agreed that the Brexit talks will be going non-stop and the talks may even have the deadline extended until November rather than the original plan of finishing by October.

Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars then it may be worth getting this organised in the near future and take advantage of this short period of AUD weakness against the Pound.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then feel free to contact me for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound makes gains vs the Australian Dollar after Turkish issue and UK inflation data due out (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few days and the move appeared to happen following the news in Turkey that Donald Trump has imposed an addition to tariffs on both steel and aluminium on Turkey and this started to cause huge problems in the country.

The Turkish Lira has dramatically weakened in value over the last few days and this has caused a number of commodity based currencies to weaken as global investors have sold off riskier based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

After briefly flirting with rates in the 1.73 levels recently the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is now back to trading above 1.76.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed recently that it will be keeping interest rates on hold while it waits for economic growth to improve and this has also helped the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar and the Australian Dollar is now at its lowest level vs the US Dollar in two years.

The RBA does not appear to be too concerned with the value of the Australian Dollar and because it is a big export market if the AUD continues to weaken then this could help to improve economic growth in Australia.

The UK and the Pound has had a good start to the week against a number of different currencies with the news that UK unemployment is close to its lowest levels since 1975 with the figure now sitting at 4%.

We could be in for further movement later this morning with the release of UK inflation data due to be published at 930am.

Inflation has been a big factor in the Bank of England’s recent decision to increase interest rates and with the data expected to show 2.5% year on year which is above the 2% target then this could provide further evidence in support of further rate hikes in the UK which could help to move GBPAUD exchange rates in an upwards direction.

If you would like a free quote or further information about how to save money compared to using your own bank when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Will the Bank of England increase interest rates and what will happen to the Pound vs the Australian Dollar?

The big news this week for anyone looking to make a transfer with Australian Dollars and Sterling will be the latest interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday by the Bank of England.

The chances have been increasing recently that the central bank will be looking to increase interest rates in the UK as inflation still remains relatively high. UK mortgage approvals have also gone up recently with the number of approved mortgages having risen to a 5 month high combined with a 2 year high for consumer confidence.

However, I think there could be more reasons behind a rate hike than just inflation.

If we cast our minds back to what happened two years ago the Bank of England slashed interest rates very quickly after the Brexit vote in order to stabilise the economy and encourage consumer spending.

Therefore, I think an interest rate hike this week could happen in order to allow the BoE room to cut rates next year if the Brexit talks go badly and we are left with a ‘no deal’ situation.

Even if we do see a rate hike we may not see the usual increase in the value of the Pound vs the Australian Dollar as it will be the accompanying statement and press conference held by the Bank of England governor that will likely affect the value of the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Carney has often been a big critic of Brexit and warned that this could cause a lot of pressure on the British economy so I think the rate hike will be closely followed by a rather dovish tone and this could hold back any Sterling advances against the Australian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when exchanging Australian Dollars or further information then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk