Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of the Brexit deal

After hitting above 1.80 earlier this month the rate to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds has fallen in to the 1.75 levels on the Interbank.

Primarily this was caused by the huge losses in the value of the Pound against a number of major currencies owing to the issues surrounding the proposed Brexit deal.

However, it was not just the news in the UK that caused the Pound to fall against the Australian Dollar.

During the course of this week the economy down under showed an improvement in the unemployment rate which fell to 5% and this caused investors to move money in to the AUD as it shows signs of a more positive economy.

The main news that caused the drop in the value of the Pound was the proposed Brexit deal. This caused a number of senior ministers to hand in their resignations including Brexit secretary Dominic Raab. He left citing differences in the deal and that he could not be part of the government owing to certain issues in the proposed deal which he could not agree upon.

Could the Brexit deal be changed?

Meanwhile this weekend a number of senior ministers in the Conservatives are planning to try and make changes to the draft Brexit deal.

Included in the group are Michael Gove and Liam Fox who have previously thrown their support behind Theresa May.

The Prime Minister has been busy trying to persuade the British public that she is determined to see this deal through.

The next stumbling block could come on 25th November when the EU summit takes place. The likelihood is that this is likely to get ratified but the real sticking point will come when the parliament has its say.

The current expectation is that the EU will approve the deal but that parliament will reject it and then the UK government will have 21 days to put forward a new plan and I think this will will increase the pressure on the value of the Pound.

Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth getting this organised relatively quickly.

If you are thinking about making a currency transfer and would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Huge week ahead for Brexit

The Pound has once again broken through 1.80 against the Australian Dollar as it appears as though the UK has significantly taken steps forward over the Brexit talks.

A draft Brexit agreement has been put in place and today Theresa May will be holding a cabinet meeting in order to win support over the current deal between the UK and the European Union.

Since yesterday, Downing Street has been meeting ministers one by one in to discuss the draft agreement and the deal includes an agreement whereby there is no separate customs border for Northern Ireland.

There are divided opinions among MPs as to what they think of the proposed deal but Theresa May is hoping to get the backing from the cabinet at 2pm today.

I think owing to the changes made previously to the staff in the cabinet then I think it will get approved, which could then mean a meeting could take place at an emergency EU summit on 25th November.

If the cabinet agrees to sign off the deal then the European Union are likely to publish the 500 page draft agreement and also the shorter papers on both economic and security deals between the UK and the European Union.

However, even though I fully expect the agreement to be approved later on this afternoon this is just one step closer to a deal being done. Parliament will then still need to back the government’s proposal and at the moment some Tories as well as members of the DUP appear to be opposed to the current deal and so getting it through the House of Commons in the future could appear very difficult.

Economic Data in Australia

Turning the focus back to what is happening in Australia we will see the release of Australian Unemployment data due out tonight with expectation of a rise from 5% to 5.1% highlights problems with the economy down under.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing earlier this month that they will be keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future I think with unemployment rising this could cause further problems for the Australian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when transferring Australian Dollars and would like to save money compared to using your own bank or another broker then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Australian Dollar strength vs the Pound but is it just short term?

Despite some very positive gains for the Pound against a number of major currencies Sterling failed to make any real advances vs the Australian Dollar.

Weaker than expected Australian Retail Sales would have typically weakened the Australian Dollar vs the Pound but this was not the case.

The Australian Dollar could even continue its recent rally against the Pound as it appears as though US President Donald Trump is gearing up for talks with the Chinese President about stopping the current Trade Wars which has been taken as good news for commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

As we head in to next week the Reserve Bank of Australia will be meeting to announce their latest interest rate decision and I fully expect interest rates to be kept on hold but it will be the comments made as to whether we’ll see any suggestion of a rate hike coming in the future.

The RBA are in a tricky position as house prices in both Melbourne and Sydney have been falling recently so any interest rate hike could cause more problems for the economy so I think the tone may be rather cautious and this could see the Australian Dollar shows signs of weakness against the Pound following the announcement made on Tuesday.

Clearly the Brexit remains the over-riding factor in determining what may happen for the Pound against the Australian Dollar and with claims made by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab that a deal could be reached by 21st November if there is any truth behind this story could we see the Pound make gains vs the Australian Dollar later on this month?

If you have a currency requirement involving Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Brexit talks hinder Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but are Australian house prices set for a crash?

Sterling has continued to drift lower vs the Australian Dollar as the topic of Brexit continues to rumble on. At the moment there are ongoing discussions about the Irish backstop arrangement and the current proposal is to keep the UK in a single customs area during the Brexit transition period which could be extended for another year.

Prime Minister Theresa May has suggested that the deal between the UK and the European Union is practically 95% done but with the Irish border issue far from being agreed I don’t think we’ll see the Brexit talks concluded in the near future and this could continue to weigh heavily on GBPAUD exchange rates.

If we turn the focus towards what is happening down under the Australian Dollar has been weakening against the US Dollar but remained fairly robust against the Pound highlighting the problems faced for Sterling by the ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

Property prices in both Sydney and Melbourne have started to show signs of falling with Deloitte claiming that some house prices are falling by as much as AUD$1,000 in a week.

Prices have been previously going up very quickly and with demand starting to wane this has caused the market to try and correct itself. Historically low interest rates have encouraged large amounts of borrowing and this has fueled the property market and with foreign investors being discouraged owing to previous reforms this has caused the housing market to come under pressure.

In my opinion the Australian economy will come under further pressure in the months ahead as we have also seen Chinese GDP at its lowest point in 10 years but until we get some positive news surrounding what is happening to the UK with its relationship with the European Union I expect Sterling’s advances to be relatively limited.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when transferring Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 and I’m confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with various contract types that may suit your need.

For further information feel free to contact me directly.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Chinese GDP falls but Brexit talks may be extended so Pound gains vs the Australian Dollar are limited

Overnight the world’s second largest economy China confirmed that it grew at its slowest quarterly rate in ten years as the problems of the US-China Trade Wars appear to be having an impact on the economy.

According to official sources the previous quarter showed growth of 6.5% compared to the year before and this was short of the forecast figure of 6.6%.

However, although the headline figure is clearly a concern for the country it was still in line with the government’s target for this year of 6.5%.

Typically this would result in Australian Dollar weakness as China is their largest trading partner so any slow down will often result in problems for the Aussie Dollar.  However, as we have seen during the course of this week the Pound has faced some problems owing to the roadblock concerning the latest Brexit talks which appear not to have gone anywhere at this week’s EU summit.

Indeed, the latest news appears to be that the parties involved are looking to extend the current time lines in order to ensure a smoother Brexit. The European Union has offered to extend the amount of time needed for the post-transitional period for the UK.

This has caused the Pound to come to a bit of a brick wall in terms of making further advances against the Australian Dollar and next month’s Brexit summit appears to have been cancelled for the time being.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years and I’m confident that with my experience I can help you with both the timing of your transfer of Australian Dollars as well as being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank.

Please send me an email with your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Could the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar after RBA minutes and EU Summit this week?

The Reserve Bank of Australia published their latest set of minutes which confirmed interest rates would be kept on hold for the time being which has led the Pound to hit 1.85 against the Australian Dollar overnight leading to some excellent opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds this week.

With property prices starting to fall in both Sydney and Melbourne the RBA’s tone was rather cautious. Indeed, property fell by 6% in Sydney and 4% in Melbourne, which have previously been the best two performing markets in recent years.

The central bank went on to warn the markets that the trade policies between the US and China could continue to cause potential negativity for the Australian economy but that as Australian growth is at 3% the economy is still relatively robust.

However, as house prices are falling and wages are not going up that quickly this is why interest rates in Australia are not likely to be going up anytime soon and predictions are that the next interest rate hike may not come until 2020.

Meanwhile, the Pound is being affected by what is happening with the latest Brexit discussions and with the EU summit due to start tomorrow and conclude on Thursday the main topic will be that of the Irish border issue which appears to be far from getting sorted.

Previously, the discussions were due to end by this particular meeting but with an emergency Brexit summit planned for next month we may not see the talks concluding positively this week so be prepared for a lot of volatility coming in the next few days if you’re planning a currency transfer involving the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and a brief description of your requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

Outlook for Pound Sterling vs the Australian Dollar rates and could we see 1.90 before the end of this month?

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has seen some very positive movements over the last few weeks and this has caused GBPAUD exchange rates to hit the best level to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds for over two years when the Brexit vote took place in June 2016.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has warned of the risks that the Australian economy is facing over the issue of the trade wars between the US and China and at the moment this issue is still rumbling on with no signs of dissipating.

Chinese stock markets have fallen by over 20% in the year to date and as China is such a large trading partner for Australia any signs of a slowdown can really harm the value of the Australian Dollar and this is one of the reasons for the weakness of the Australian Dollar recently.

Signs coming from the Brexit talks are that things are getting relatively close to reaching a conclusion and it appears, at least for the moment, that a deal may be reached fairly soon which has helped to support the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is due in Brussels on Monday and hopes are that he is there to try and tie up a deal but I cannot see this happening just yet.

Indeed, the EU summit will be held on Wednesday for two days and there is a hope that a deal may be reached and if so we could see a very volatile period coming up for anyone thinking about moving Sterling either to buy or sell Australian Dollars.

Following this summit there is another meeting planned for November and I think this is when a deal between both the UK and the European Union will be reached and this could give Sterling the momentum it has been looking for to continue upwards vs the Australian Dollar.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months involving Australian Dollars then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound hits 2 year high to buy Australian Dollars (Tom Holian)

The Australian Dollar has continued to weaken against both the Pound and the US Dollar recently as investors have begun to bypass the Australian Dollar as interest rates down under appear to be staying the same for the foreseeable future.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% again this month and they have not changed interest rates in two years and with the US continuing to hike interest rates the Australian Dollar has been sold off in favour of the US Dollar and this has weakened the AUD against a number of different currencies including Sterling.

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar is now trading at its best level to buy Australian Dollars since the Brexit vote back in June 2016 and the question really is how long will this rally for Sterling last?

Clearly the Pound is under a lot of pressure at the moment with the ongoing uncertainty caused by the Brexit talks but the sentiment appears to have been softening recently towards the UK and rumours are that the talks could be concluded by next month.

If this does happen we could see the Pound make even further gains as this will provide investors with more certainty as to what to expect moving forward and encourage them to invest into the UK.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the negative effects caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China.  As China is Australia’s largest trading partner any problems in the second largest economy will often have negative effects on the value of the Australian Dollar and I think this could continue to harm the economy and therefore cause further Australian Dollar weakness for the Pound.

I have worked in the foreign exchange markets for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for over 15 years and with my experience I’m confident that not only can I save you money when exchanging Australian Dollars but also help you with the various options available to you.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling hits 2 year high vs the Australian Dollar as Brexit talks progress (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has now hit its best level in over two years as the Brexit talks appear to be gathering pace.

At the time of writing GBPAUD exchange rates have hit 1.85+ which is the best level since the day of the Brexit vote back in June 2016.

According to a number of different sources the Irish border issue appears to be getting closer to being resolved and we are just less than two weeks away from the EU summit due to take place on October 18th.

The main topic will clearly be what happens with the ongoing Brexit talks and with the Head of the EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker suggesting that if a deal is not reached this month it could be concluded next month the Pound has made some huge gains against a number of major currencies including the Australian Dollar which is great news for anyone looking to send money to Australia.

Meanwhile, with the US Federal Reserve having increased interest rates to 2.25% recently the disparity between what is available in terms of interest in Australia compared to that of the US now stands at 0.75% which is the biggest difference since the Australian Dollar was launched over thirty years ago.

In recent years the Australian Dollar has been the benefactor of higher interest rates compared to that available in many other western economies but with interest rates now higher in the US and also showing US GDP at 4% then global investors appear to be bypassing the Australian Dollar at the moment.

Indeed, the ongoing Trade Wars between the US and China do not appear to be slowing down and as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner any negative news will often affect the Australian Dollar and this is another reason for the GBPAUD exchange rate moving in an upwards direction at the moment.

I think a deal is fairly close to being agreed at the moment and if and when this happens I think it will provide the UK with some certainty going forward allowing the economy to know what to expect and I think this is why we could see GBPAUD exchange rates continue to go up if the talks progress positively in the next fortnight.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when converting Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can also help you with the timing of your transfer.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound collapses against the Australian Dollar after Brexit talks stall (Tom Holian)

The Pound collapsed against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar after a bad week politically for the UK.

The Pound began to drop on Thursday when the unofficial EU meeting didn’t go very well with a number of EU leaders rejecting the Chequers plan put out by Prime Minister Theresa May.

She criticised the EU and said if they reject her plan then they will need to come up with a plan of their own. Clearly there is no plan coming at least in the short term and this uncertainty caused problems for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Even further losses came on Friday afternoon as Theresa May gave a statement on Brexit and confirmed that a second referendum will not be coming and that she is focused on making sure democracy will prevail. The markets weakened during the statement with GBAUD exchange rates falling below 1.80 after trading above this resistance level for a while.

The Australian Dollar was also given a boost after the Trump administration confirmed that they will not be putting tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports.

The Aussie Dollar has been under pressure recently caused by the Trade Wars between the US and China and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this will often have a negative effect on the value of the Australian Dollar. However, as Trump has not included them in his latest weight throwing exercise this has helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen against Sterling.

The Australian economy had a further boost recently with credit ratings agency S&P upgrading Australia’s credit outlook from negative to stable for the first time in two years.

With the Australian trade surplus improving as well as record growth in employment this has been another reason for the fightback by the Australian Dollar vs Sterling.

As we go into next week the GBAUD is likely to be heavily influenced by the ongoing Brexit saga so make sure you’re well prepared for some volatility ahead for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying or selling Australian Dollars as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make or would like further information as to what is happening to GBPAUD rates then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk