Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Pound against the Australian Dollar falls as RBA may not cut interest rates

The Australian Dollar has seen some signs of strength recently as it appears as though the Reserve Bank of Australia may not be looking at cutting interest rates as soon as previously expected.

The Trade Wars between the US and China also appear to be getting closer to a resolution and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this has helped the value of the Australian Dollar.

Australian is also a huge producer of Iron Ore and its main export market is China. Australia has approximately 65% of the global market and any price change in the value of the commodity will often affect the value of the Australian Dollar.

Chinese demand has started to increase for the commodity and rumours are increasing that many Iron ore mines in Brazil are due to be closing. This means that global supply will reduce which will in theory increase demand for Australian iron ore.

However, although the news is good concerning the news above, the risk going forward is that of the Australian election which is due to take place in just over a month’s time.

Labour are doing well in the polls so a change in leadership could see the Australian Dollar come under pressure once again so make sure you keep a close eye out on the election campaign as this is likely to have a big impact on the Pound against the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing uncertainty caused by Brexit has caused the Pound to weaken marginally against a number of different currencies which is good news for anyone looking to buy Pounds at the moment as GBPAUD exchange rates are at the lowest rate in two months.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked in the currency industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers  I’m confident that I can save you money compared to using your bank for the transfer of Australian Dollars.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The impact of the Australian election next month on the Pound against the Australian Dollar

We are now just 5 weeks away from when the Australian federal election is due to take place on Saturday 18th May.

Generally speaking an election will often result in weakness for the currency involved as not only is the result uncertain but how will business be impacted causes uncertainty for investment in to the country during that period.

All of the 131 seats available in the House of Representatives are up for re-election as well as a total of 40 out of the 76 seats in the Senate.

At the moment current Prime Minister Scott Morrison is aiming to win another three year term but the opposition Labor party are looking to mount a challenge having been out of power for six years.

According to a number of polls recently the Prime Minister is potentially going to lose against the Labor party as they have pledged to reduce pollution levels by as much as almost half by 2030 compared to that in 2005.

The economy down under is also experiencing a slow down and with Morrison the seventh Prime Minister in the last ten years it appears as though Australians want to see a more stable government so we could be seeing a change coming in the next few weeks.

As we move closer to the election I think we could see the Pound making some improvements against the Australian Dollar so if you’re considering making a transfer to Australia it will be worth paying close attention to what happens during the election campaign during the next few weeks.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I’m able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as providing a more detailed insight as to what is happening on the currency markets to help you make a more informed decision.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound to Australian Dollar rate today and what will happen to rates after 29th March?

The Pound has been challenging 1.87 on the Interbank level against the Australian Dollar over the last few days but has struggled to hold on to its gains for any sustained period.

Sterling has made the gains owing to a number of reasons but arguably the two most important factors affecting the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is that of China and Brexit.

The impact of China on the Australian Dollar

China appears to be back tracking on its arrangements with the US in terms of its trading position and this is likely to impact trade between China and Australia. The Trade Wars are still going on between the two superpowers and this is causing a problem for the Australian Dollar.

China is Australia’s largest consumer of its natural resources and as Australia is heavily influenced by commodity prices as well as demand from the world’s second largest economy any reduction in demand will often tend to weaken the Australian Dollar and this appears to be what is happening at the moment.

The impact of Brexit on the Pound to the Australian Dollar

Turning the focus back towards what is happening in the UK and it is Brexit that is dominating all the headlines at the moment. The Speaker of the House John Bercow recently announced that the Prime Minister will not be allowed to hold another ‘meaningful vote’ if the new deal is very similar to that already proposed which was voted against recently.

With just ten days to go before the UK is set to leave the European Union things are still uncertain as to what will happen next. The likelihood is that Brexit will be postponed but for how long is the most important question.

Theresa May is due to travel to Brussels to discuss the terms of any delay but all the 27 members of the European Union will have to agree to any proposed extension period so there is still a risk to the value of the Pound.

I personally think that a no deal Brexit will be avoided and an extension will be granted and once this happens depending on the length of the delay I think this could provide the Pound with some real support against the Australian Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

No to a no deal Brexit and the impact on the Australian Dollar

The Pound has hit a 2 1/2 year high against the Australian Dollar after the House of Commons voted in favour of saying no to a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

MPs will now be voting later on today to ask the European Union for permission to delay Brexit after the 29th March which is the the current expected date when the UK is due to leave the European Union.

Owing to what happened last night, once or indeed, if an extension is granted this could carry on for a long period of time according to Prime Minister Theresa May.

The Pound has moved in an upwards direction against a number of different currencies including against the Australian Dollar and we could see further gains later today if the vote goes the right way.

Theresa May has also warned that if her deal is not voted through next week then an extension would need to be very long and I think this could provide the Pound with support as it means trade with the UK can breathe a sigh of relief at least for the foreseeable future.

In my opinion the longer the negotiations last means that I think negotiations will continue to be in stalemate and this could inevitably result in a call for a second referendum.

Clearly there is little appetite at the moment for this to take place but if there is no headway made over the next few months with the talks then this could be one of the only options left.

The Australian economy is feeling a lot of pressure at the moment owing to the slowdown in China with Chinese GDP at 6.6% which is the lowest level in 28 years.

Australia is heavily reliant on Chinese demand and with Australia exporting a third of their goods to China then any slowdown will typically have a negative impact on the value of the Australian Dollar and this is what appears to be happening at the moment.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound increase after the Brexit vote next week?

The Australian Dollar has continued to struggle recently against the Pound hitting the best rate to buy Australian Dollars since June 2016 this week.

Since the lowest point in December the Pound has improved by as much as AUD14,500 on a currency transfer of £100,000 highlighting the importance of keeping up to date with current events both in the UK and Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia have continued to remain in a rather neutral position concerning monetary policy by keeping interest rates on hold earlier this week.

The Australian economy has continued to show signs of concern during recent months and this is clearly being reflected in what is happening with the Australian Dollar at the moment.

The Australian economy is also heavily reliant on both growth and demand in China and with the world’s second largest economy slowing down this is causing the Australian Dollar to weaken.

Problems with coal coming in to China from Australia have hit the headlines recently and it appears to be only directed at Australia rather than other countries who trade with China so is this a political move by the Chinese who are maybe punishing Australia for their support to the US concerning the recent Trade Wars between the US and China?

Turning the focus back towards what is happening in the UK and we have a number of key votes due to take place in the House of Commons surrounding Brexit.

On March 12th the House of Commons will hold their ‘meaningful vote’ about what MPs think of the current Brexit deal on offer. The likelihood is that it will be voted against and this means the following day will see a vote on whether or not MPs will back a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Therefore, I expect a huge amount of volatility on GBPAUD exchange rates and could this see the Pound break past 1.90 against the Australian Dollar.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for over 16 years and I’m confident that I can save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank so if you would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Pound Australian Dollar Forecast – Pound improves after coal tensions

The Pound has continued to make gains vs the Australian Dollar after it emerged that the Chinese have put an indefinite ban on the amount of Australian coal coming in to the country.

The amount has been capped at 12mn tonnes per year and as China accounts for 34% of Australia’s export market it is a big concern for the Australian economy and this has been reflected in the Australian Dollar which has weakened to its lowest level vs Sterling since October 2018.

Clearly this issue could become a big problem for the Australian Dollar and Australia’s Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is seeking some clarity on the situation before the issue gets worse and RBA governor Philip Lowe has said ‘if it were to the sign of a deterioration in the underlying political relationship between Australia and China then that would be more concerning.’

Yesterday morning Australian unemployment came out at 5% which was in line with expectation and typically this would have helped the Australian Dollar to strengthen vs the Pound but it did little to impact GBPAUD rates as the markets focused on the tensions between China and Australia.

During the next few days and as we come to the end of the month there is little economic data due out for Australia so the coal story is likely to dominate the next few days for the Australian Dollar.

In the meantime the UK may be holding the next vote on Brexit on 27th February and at the moment it appears that the deal is far from being approved so I expect another loss for the Prime Minister in the House of Commons.

This could give the Pound a boost as it means that Brexit may not be happening 5 weeks from today and the likelihood is that Article 50 is extended.

Although this will not solve anything it does mean that the finite period of uncertainty is removed and this could provide the Pound with a lift against the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank or another broker then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

RBA under pressure causing the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia has once again signalled that things are not looking in great shape for the Australian economy owing to higher unemployment levels combined with lower inflation if UK house prices continue to fall.

Indeed, according to some reports there has been a drop of almost 60% in investment from foreign buyers in to the property market in Australia.

Up until last year Australian house prices had been rising significantly but both Sydney and Melbourne which were leading the market in terms of house price growth have both started to feel the effects and have started to drop during the last 18 months.

With a lot of wealth for Australians tied up in their houses the fall in value is clearly a concern for the central bank as this could trigger a fall in consumer spending and then cause GDP to fall.

At the moment Australian interest rates are at their lowest levels in over 50 years and there appears to be little appetite to consider raising interest rates any time soon.

Indeed, if anything the expectation is for the Reserve Bank of Australia to look at cutting interest rates during 2019 and this is one of the main reasons for the weakness in the value of the Australian Dollar against the Pound.

In the meantime the Australian Dollar is also feeling the pressure owing to the ongoing Trade War issues between the US and China.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so any signs of a slowdown in growth or reduced demand will often have a negative impact on the value of the Australian Dollar and this is another reason why the GBPAUD exchange rate has been trading around the 1.80 level recently.

Relations between the two superpowers appear to have stalled once again and hopes are that a deal covering Chinese goods coming in to the US will be resolved before the deadline of 1st March.

Both sides are hoping that a resolution can be found but we are less than 2 weeks to go before the proposed deadline and this could negatively impact the value of the Australian Dollar which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the next fortnight.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound remains strong against the Australian Dollar even after poor UK GDP figures

The Australian Dollar has continued to struggle against the Pound hitting 1.82 during today’s trading session creating some good opportunities for anyone looking to convert Pounds to Euros at the moment.

The Reserve Bank of Australia was relatively dovish during its recent press conference and accompanying statement and it appears as though the next rate change for the central bank down under could be a rate cut in the future.

One of the reasons why the RBA has yet to make a change to interest rates is owing to the recent higher than expected inflation data, which although lower than the 2-3% target has been rising recently.

Typically if inflation rises then the usual strategy to combat this would be to increase interest rates but as the property market in Australia is showing real signs of slowing down then an interest rate rise down under could cause big problems for the Australian housing market and could send home owners in to negative equity.

According to many sources an interest rate cut before the end of 2019 now seems like a certainty and this is part of the reason why the Pound continues to remain relatively strong against the Australian Dollar.

Whilst the Trade Wars between the US and China continue to rumble on then global investment appears to be bypassing the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar and this is another reason for the continued weakness of the AUD vs the Pound.

Earlier on today UK GDP showed a slowdown for the final quarter of 2018 combined with some lower than expected Industrial and Manufacturing Production data but this did little to negatively impact Sterling as the market appears to be waiting to see how the Brexit talks will progress during the course of this week.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that not only can I help you save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer. For a free quote then contact me directly via email with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound sees signs of a struggle against the Australian Dollar after Brexit discussions

The Pound has started to fall during the course of this week against the Australian Dollar as the Brexit talks appear to be struggling to make too much headway.

The recent amendment about the Irish backstop was voted through the House of Commons, which means that Theresa May will try to go back to the European Union in an effort to change the current terms of the backstop.

However, all throughout yesterday European leaders confirmed that the current Brexit deal on offer will not be renegotiated and this moves us towards the chances of even having a no deal Brexit.

Overnight, the Australian Dollar had a boost after the announcement made by the US Federal Reserve that they will be keeping interest rates on hold.

The statement made by Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed would not simply look at economic data but also listen to businesses and this means that the cycle of rate hikes may not be as quick as many had previously anticipated. Clearly, there is room for further interest rate hikes to occur in 2019 in the US but the statement from last night means that they may be slowing down their cycle.

The good news for the Australian Dollar is that global investors will move money away from the US and back into more riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar and this is in part a reason for the strength overnight.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

The reasons why the Pound could break 1.80 this month against the Australian Dollar

The Pound has briefly touched 1.80 against the Australian Dollar this week but has yet to make a sustained break past this particular level of resistance. However, I’m confident that the Pound will keep knocking on the door of 1.80 before eventually breaking through before the end of this month.

The political uncertainty in the UK has actually done the reverse of what many expected to happen in terms of the value of Sterling.

Clearly the Brexit deal on offer is not something that MPs have much confidence in, which saw a majority vote of 230 against the deal. Since then, the Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to once again survive a vote of no confidence with the Tories and the DUP voting in favour of supporting the Prime Minister.

The reason why the Pound has found support against a whole host of currencies including vs the Australian Dollar is because it looks more and more likely that the withdrawal from the European Union with a no deal Brexit will not happen.

Theresa May has yet to confirm officially if the UK will rule it out and I think that she is doing so to keep her negotiating power as strong as possible when she next meets with the European Union.

It appears also that the UK will attempt to extend Article 50 as it is clear that neither the UK nor the European Union is ready for the end of March.

Even though the uncertainty as to what may happen next with the Brexit talks still exists the good news for the Pound is that the finite period before the end of March may not now happen and this either moves the UK towards a softer Brexit or perhaps even no Brexit if MPs do not manage to agree on the terms of any future deal.

The market will ultimately want trade not to be adversely affected and therefore this is why I think we will see the Pound break through 1.80 during January.

I have personally worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m able to offer you bank beating exchange rates so if you would like to save money then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk