Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast – Further interest rate cuts planned in Australia

Will Boris be the next Prime Minister?

The Tory leadership election is now down to the final two with Boris Johnson due to go head to head with Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has been the clear leader since the votes began and the strong likelihood is that he’ll become the new Tory leader when it is officially announced on 22nd July. Johnson won the ballot with 160 votes compared to Hunt with 77. Therefore, unless Johnson makes a calamity in the next month I cannot see why he won’t win.

This has given the Pound some support against a number of different currencies but we are still in a fairly uncertain period for the Pound as we still do not what will happen with Brexit.

Australian interest rates to be cut again in 2019

In the meantime turning the focus back towards what is happening in Australia and things are not going well down under.

Following the federal election which gave the Australian Dollar a brief period of respite the currency has started to weaken again.

The Australian Dollar is close to its lowest level against the US Dollar in history and has started to weaken once again vs the Pound.

Blackrock Inc has shorted the Australian Dollar as they expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates to 0.5% from the current levels of 1.25%. Australia has been one of the benefactors of having a highly competitive interest rate so with further interest rate cuts expected I think this could have a big impact on the value of the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar has also felt the impact of the ongoing US-China trade wars which appear to have little signs of ending soon. As China is one of Australia’s leading trading partners any slowdown in the world’s second largest economy can often effect the value of the Australian Dollar.

RBA governor Philip Lowe has claimed that the most recent interest rate cut was an attempt to cut unemployment levels as well as helping inflation but I agree with both Blackrock and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia that there are further interest rate cuts coming during 2019.

Therefore, if you’re considering selling Australian Dollars it may be worth getting things organised in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the RBA confirm when interest rates will be cut?

Pound improves against the Australian Dollar

The Pound has seen a small increase vs the Australian Dollar since the weekend after struggling recently.

Last week the latest jobs report highlighted a problem for the Australian economy.

The unemployment figures on the surface appeared to be relatively strong at 5.2% but this is still much lower than that in the US, the UK and also New Zealand.

The hidden figure is that of the under-utilisation rate, which measures the number of unemployed and underemployed as a percentage of the labour force.

This is showing concerns as the figures appear to be rising at the moment. The jobs rate does not demonstrate clearly those who are supplementing their income with second jobs.

This means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be coming under further pressure to consider bringing forward an interest rate cut.

The RBA are due to release their minutes from the latest meeting tomorrow so make sure you pay close attention to the rhetoric used and to discover their appetite for further rate cuts to be brought forward.

With the global economy showing signs of a slowdown I think it is simply a matter of time before the RBA cuts interest rates again and I think this is in part the reason for the Pound’s recent gains vs the Australian Dollar.

This is providing some good opportunities to buy Australian Dollars with Pounds as the PoundĀ  is still feeling the pressure of the Tory leadership election.

At the moment it appears as though the front runner is Boris Johnson and if he does manage to gain power then this could lead to a brief period of certainty for the British economy and this could give the Pound a boost vs the Australian Dollar.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar?

The Pound has this week fought back against the Australian Dollar. With the RBA having cut interest rates the focus now appears to be on Australian unemployment. The figures showed a problem with the jobs market down under which signals that the Australian economy is under some real pressure at the moment.

The average house price has also been falling in Australia and this is beginning to weigh heavily on the value of the Australian Dollar.

Next week the focus will turn back to the Reserve Bank of Australia when the latest minutes are released.

This will provide an insight as to what the central bank are looking to do in the near future concerning monetary policy.

I think there are more interest rate cuts planned this year so if the RBA gives hints that there may be more coming in the near future I think we could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction.

Therefore, if you’re planning to buy Australian Dollars in the near future it may be worth waiting until the middle of week to take advantage of any potential spikes in the market.

The other news affecting the rates is that of the UK’s leadership election. Currently Boris Johnson appears to be the front runner after winning the first round conclusively. If he manages to get into power this could potentially give the Pound a boost against the Australian Dollar as it will provide some certainty at least in the short term.

I have worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I am confident of being able to save you money when buying or selling Australian Dollars.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP to Australian Dollar Forecast – UK politics and Australian interest rates

The Pound fell by 5 cents against the Australian Dollar during last month after what has been a very uncertain time politically in the UK.

Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation and we are now in the midst of a leadership election within the Tory party.

The likelihood is that the battle for the next Prime Minister will continue until late July, which means more political uncertainty and this could cause ongoing problems for Sterling exchange rates.

The other problem for the Pound is that the next Prime Minister will likely be more of a Brexiteer and this could increase the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

Personally speaking I don’t think a no-deal Brexit will happen which means that we’re likely to have to extend the October deadline, have a second referendum or even potentially have another general election. All of these options care likely to cause problems for the Pound.

However, in the very near future the Reserve Bank of Australia will be announcing their latest monetary policy overnight. The strong likelihood is that we’ll see the central bank cut interest rates to their lowest level on record of just 1.25%.

If after the interest rate cut they announce that there could be further rate cuts coming then I think this could see GBPAUD exchange rates move in an upwards direction which is good news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars at the moment.

The Australian economy has been showing signs of problems recently with employment, economic growth and inflation so I think the RBA will signal that there are further rate cuts to be made but depending on the timelines offered this could cause a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates overnight.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of looking to convert Australian Dollars then pay close attention to the decision made as well as the RBA’s accompanying statement.

I have personally worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 16 years and I’m confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. If you would like a free quote then send me an email with an outline of your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs Australian Dollar rates improve after Theresa May’s speech

The Pound hit 1.86 against the Australian Dollar yesterday afternoon after what has been a very busy week so far for GBPAUD exchange rates.

The election over the weekend was won by the current Prime Minister Scott Morrison who will remain in power for a full term.

He originally replaced the previous leader back in August so a new full term has helped to settle the Australian economy.

This is turn helped to strengthen the Australian Dollar against the Pound over the weekend but since then the Pound has fought back following Theresa May’s speech on Tuesday afternoon.

Theresa May has warned MPs that they have ‘one last chance’ to deliver Brexit and she is anxious to get this new deal backed in the House of Commons in early June.

However, although some amendments have been made I cannot see this deal getting accepted which will trigger her in to announcing her resignation timeline.

Theresa May has also suggested that it may even mean that Brexit could even be cancelled. The Prime Minister also hinted that a second referendum may be held if there is enough appetite in parliament for it to take place.

All this news has helped the Pound to recover against a number of different currencies and good news for anyone looking to exchange Pounds into Australian Dollars.

However, later this week we also have the European elections due and this could cause some uncertainty for the Pound so if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of this current spike.

If you would like to save money when transferring Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident about saving you money as well as helping you with the timing of the trade.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound Sterling close to 3 year highs against the Australian Dollar

The Pound is now trading at close to its best level to buy Australian Dollars with Sterling since June 2016 when the Brexit vote took place.

The Pound has increased in value against the Australian Dollar at the end of the week as the cross party talks between the Labour party and the Tories appear to be making progress.

Following the dismal local election results earlier in the week senior Tory members are urging the party to take things further and deliver Brexit.

Indeed, Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that the public wanted ‘to see the issue of Brexit resolved.’

With Theresa May insisting that the cross-party talks are concluded by next week this could see Brexit get closer to being delivered than some may expect.

I am still doubtful that Brexit will take place as even if the talks between the two parties improve then they will still have to get it through the House of Commons who have so far shown little interest in approving the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

Turning the focus back towards the Australian Dollar I think we could potentially see the Pound hit 1.90 and above this month as there are a number of major events taking place during May.

We start on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting to announce their latest interest rate decision. The rumours have been increasing recently that the RBA may be looking to cut interest rates and even if a rate cut does not take place on Tuesday I think that the RBA may adopt a relatively dovish tone and suggest that they are gearing up to cut rates.

One of the only reasons why I think an interest rate cut may not happen next week is that Australia is due to go to the polls this month on 18th May.

Generally speaking when an election takes place this often results in uncertainty for the currency involved and this is why I think we could see the Pound increasing against the Australian Dollar in the near future.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank and have a currency transfer to make involving Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound to Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of low inflation and the election

The Pound has had a relatively strong week against the Australian Dollar after we saw inflation figures in Australia drop compared to the expectation.

Figures were predicted to come out at 1.8% but they fell to 1.5% and this is likely to add further pressure to the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates sooner than they may have previously considered.

The RBA are under pressure to look at cutting interest rates in an attempt to help the ailing property market as well as trying to control falling inflation so this week’s data is likely to bring an interest rate cut forward and this could happen as early as 7th May when the RBA holds its next monetary policy meeting.

The general expectation for interest rates in Australia is for two cuts this year bringing interest rates to their lowest level on record at just 1%.

However, as Australia goes to the polls next month to vote in the next election on 18th May the RBA may just hold fire from changing monetary policy as to change things now could cause a lot of volatility for the markets if the central bank intervenes too soon.

Current Prime Minister Scott Morrison has tried to defend his economic record during his tenure but with GDP figures slowing down during the last year he is facing questions as to how he can turn the economy round under his stewardship.

As we move into next week the key data release of the week could be Thursday’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. As China is such a huge trading partner with Australia this can often have a large bearing on the value of GBPAUD exchange rates so make sure you’re well prepared for what could be a busy end to the week.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident not only of being able to save you money when exchanging Australian Dollars but also to provide you with further information as to how the market is moving.

For a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs Australian Dollar Forecast and the impact of inflation and an election

The Australian Dollar has been performing a little better as of late vs the Pound however things could be different over the next few days when Australia releases its latest inflation data.

Expectations are for a fall from 1.8% to 1.5% and if this happens I think we could see some Australian Dollar weakness ahead.

The reason is that if inflation falls this could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates in the near future.

The Australian economy has been under pressure during the last few months for a number of reasons with one big factor that of the housing market.

Property prices across the country have fallen and a central bank will often look at cutting interest rates in order to give the sector a boost.

The impact of an interest rate cut usually results in weakness for the currency involved and that is why I think the Pound could increase on Wednesday when the RBA announces the latest inflation data.

However, although I think the Australian Dollar could weaken I do think that the RBA will keep rates the same over the next few weeks as we are just over a month away from the next elections in Australia and a central bank will often keep monetary policy the same as changing it can result in a lot of uncertainty for markets especially when an election takes place.

The Labour party down under is gaining more votes and this is not popular for big business as the result would likely to be increased taxation and this could be another reason why the Australian Dollar could suffer if the party wins next month.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound against the Australian Dollar falls as RBA may not cut interest rates

The Australian Dollar has seen some signs of strength recently as it appears as though the Reserve Bank of Australia may not be looking at cutting interest rates as soon as previously expected.

The Trade Wars between the US and China also appear to be getting closer to a resolution and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this has helped the value of the Australian Dollar.

Australian is also a huge producer of Iron Ore and its main export market is China. Australia has approximately 65% of the global market and any price change in the value of the commodity will often affect the value of the Australian Dollar.

Chinese demand has started to increase for the commodity and rumours are increasing that many Iron ore mines in Brazil are due to be closing. This means that global supply will reduce which will in theory increase demand for Australian iron ore.

However, although the news is good concerning the news above, the risk going forward is that of the Australian election which is due to take place in just over a month’s time.

Labour are doing well in the polls so a change in leadership could see the Australian Dollar come under pressure once again so make sure you keep a close eye out on the election campaign as this is likely to have a big impact on the Pound against the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing uncertainty caused by Brexit has caused the Pound to weaken marginally against a number of different currencies which is good news for anyone looking to buy Pounds at the moment as GBPAUD exchange rates are at the lowest rate in two months.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked in the currency industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokersĀ  I’m confident that I can save you money compared to using your bank for the transfer of Australian Dollars.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The impact of the Australian election next month on the Pound against the Australian Dollar

We are now just 5 weeks away from when the Australian federal election is due to take place on Saturday 18th May.

Generally speaking an election will often result in weakness for the currency involved as not only is the result uncertain but how will business be impacted causes uncertainty for investment in to the country during that period.

All of the 131 seats available in the House of Representatives are up for re-election as well as a total of 40 out of the 76 seats in the Senate.

At the moment current Prime Minister Scott Morrison is aiming to win another three year term but the opposition Labor party are looking to mount a challenge having been out of power for six years.

According to a number of polls recently the Prime Minister is potentially going to lose against the Labor party as they have pledged to reduce pollution levels by as much as almost half by 2030 compared to that in 2005.

The economy down under is also experiencing a slow down and with Morrison the seventh Prime Minister in the last ten years it appears as though Australians want to see a more stable government so we could be seeing a change coming in the next few weeks.

As we move closer to the election I think we could see the Pound making some improvements against the Australian Dollar so if you’re considering making a transfer to Australia it will be worth paying close attention to what happens during the election campaign during the next few weeks.

I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident that I’m able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as providing a more detailed insight as to what is happening on the currency markets to help you make a more informed decision.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk