Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Could the Pound make further gains this week against the Australian Dollar?

According to many sources the Australian Dollar could be under real pressure in the long term as the Chinese economy continues to slow and the US Federal Reserve continues on their path of raising interest rates.

The Fed has already raised rates 7 times since December 2015 and have already increased rates twice during the course of this year as well.

The Australian Dollar has hit its lowest point vs the US Dollar in twelve months and this has also been caused by the ongoing Trade Wars between the US and China.

The Australian bond yields have now dropped below that offered by US Treasuries and this could get even worse as as the Fed continue their path of raising interest rates later this year.

At the moment the view from the Reserve Bank of Australia is that they are likely to keep interest rates on hold for a long period of time and this is why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently heading in the direction of 1.80 recently.

With the Bank of England due to meet tomorrow afternoon I think the central bank will keep interest rates on hold once again with a 7-2 split but with the UK showing some very positive Retail Sales earlier this month I think we could see some signs that an interest rate hike could be coming sooner than the markets expects and if this is the case we could see the Pound make some further gains vs the Australian Dollar towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar?

After having a very good run against the Pound the Australian Dollar has started to weaken in the direction of 1.80 on GBPAUD exchange rates. The confirmation from last night’s RBA minutes showed that interest rates are likely to be kept the same for the foreseeable future as they are helping to keep the economy performing well.

This has caused global investors to sell the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve has already increased rates twice this year and this is the seventh time since December 2015.

Over the years the Australian Dollar has had a very strong positive yield but in recent times owing to the pace of rates going up in the US this has caused problems for the Australian Dollar.

However, not only is keeping interest rates on hold causing a problem for the Australian Dollar they are also facing the effects of Donald Trump’s latest threats of tariffs on Chinese goods.

As China is such a large trading partner with Australia then any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness and this appears to be happening at the moment.

Trump has asked US officials to create a list of US$200bn worth of imports from China which could result in a very large trade war between the world’s two strongest economic powerhouses.

The Australian stock market has felt the effects of the news and the Pound vs the Australian Dollar hit the higher level of the 1.79 region earlier on during today’s trading session.

I personally think we could see the Australian Dollar weaken further this week and I would not be surprised to see the Pound hit 1.80 over the next few days.

On Thursday the Bank of England will hold their latest monetary policy meeting and recently the split has been 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold but with UK Retail Sales coming out much higher recently could this change one of the MPC member’s mind?

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs the Australian Dollar waiting to hear about the EU Withdrawal Bill (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has crept up during today’s trading session and we could be in for a very volatile period over the next 24 hours as the House of Commons will be debating the latest EU Withdrawal Bill.

The bill was rejected previously by the House of Lords and this is the reason why it has been sent to the House of Commons for another review.

Most of the DUP have said that they will side with Theresa May but if some of the Tory back benchers go against the Prime Minister this could cause a big headache for the government and this could result in Sterling weakness against the Australian Dollar.

By the end of Wednesday and going into Thursday morning we should know the update so if you’re concerned about what may happen then it’s probably worth getting your currency organised as we could see a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates over the next couple of days.

During the voting on the bill this afternoon we have seen one member resign over the Brexit talks and there has so far been a lot of in fighting between MPs.

In the morning UK inflation data is due out at 930am and we could see some market movement on Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but ultimately I think it will be the EU withdrawal bill that will cause the most movement.

If we have a positive result then we could see GBPAUD exchange rates head towards 1.80 but if not I expect the Pound to fall below 1.75.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Reasons to be cheerful if you’re buying Australian Dollars

The Australian Dollar has been trading fairly well recently against the Pound but really struggling against a number of other currencies including vs the US Dollar.

The US are set to raise rates again soon and this could even happen on Wednesday evening when the US Federal Reserve hold their latest meeting.

The US have increased rates a number of times since December 2015 and this could be the second rise this year which is likely to put pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.

Over the years the Aussie Dollar has benefited from high interest rates and a relatively stable economy but as the RBA are unlikely to raising rates anytime soon then this is likely to encourage global investors to move their money away from the Australian Dollar.

The knock on effect of this with anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars could potentially be good news.

In my opinion I don’t think we’re too far away from hitting 1.80 again in the near future but it will also be affected by what is happening politically in the UK.

The UK will debate the EU Withdrawal Bill on both Tuesday and Wednesday and the government is keen to get things sorted before the next EU summit due to held on 28th June.

Clearly the ongoing Brexit discussions are causing uncertainty for the UK economy and this is being reflected in the value of the Pound so any good news next week could see a good period for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

I work for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident that not only am I able to save you money on exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

For a free quote then send me an email with details of your requirement and I’ll happily reply.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound improves against the Australian Dollar after positive Services sector news

UK services sector data published this morning came out much better than expected and this has put an end to the Pound’s recent demise vs the Australian Dollar.

The sector rose quicker than expected during May which has given rise to a possible hint of an interest rate hike.

The PMI data hit a three month high at 54 compared to the previous month of 52.8 but at the same time the survey did suggest that growth could slow down later this year.

The good news for the Pound is that the services sector accounts for over three quarters of the UK’s economy but is this good news a temporary positive sign?

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit clearly is keeping the Pound under a lot of pressure against a number of different currencies and the EU withdrawal bill will be discussed next week and this could cause further problems for the Pound.

Personally speaking I cannot foresee an interest rate hike coming for the UK at all during the course of the year as we are still deeply involved with the Brexit talks so anything to rock the boat in terms of monetary policy is highly unlikely.

Also, with UK GDP only recently growing at its slowest growth in 6 years a month ago and with inflation falling I don’t think the Bank of England will have much appetite to change the status quo.

Friday could be the biggest day of the week for anyone with an Australian Dollar transfer to make as we start the day with Chinese Trade Balance figures combined with Chinese Import and Export data. Following this the latest NIESR UK GDP estimate for the last three months will also be published and if we see another negative release this could put further pressure on Sterling vs the Australian dollar.

If you would like further information or a free quote when moving Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. A quick email could save you a lot of money on your currency transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Could Australian Dollar strength continue this week?

The Pound has continued to remain under pressure against the Australian Dollar as the markets are still waiting to hear how the Brexit talks will go in the weeks ahead.

The ongoing uncertainty has piled more pressure on Sterling and one of the only currencies that Sterling is performing well against is the Euro which has struggled owing to what is happening politically in Italy at the moment.

On Friday UK GDP confirmed that the figures grew at the slowest pace in 5 years and this has provided further support for the recent decision made by the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month.

Looking ahead to the next few days there is not too much economic data coming out apart from UK Consumer Confidence figures on Wednesday followed by some housing data due to be published on Thursday.

One of the biggest events of the week in terms of the currency market will come on Wednesday as the US announce their latest GDP figures and typically this will often have a big impact on the Australian Dollar as it will either increase or discourage risk appetite and as the AUD is deemed a riskier currency this can often move the market for GBPAUD exchange rates very quickly.

On early Thursday morning the Chinese publish manufacturing data and then Private Sector credit data a few hours later so if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars over the next few days I think the biggest day of the week could come tomorrow with US GDP data.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you would like a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Will the Pound increase towards the end of the week vs the Australian Dollar?

The Australian Dollar has improved vs the Pound during the last few days as political tensions between the US and China appear to be easing recently.

Previously, it was suggested that Australia could be caught in the middle of the trade wars between the world’s two largest economies and as Australia is heavily reliant on what happens with the Chinese economy this can often have a big impact on the value of the Aussie Dollar.

Longer term I still think the Australian Dollar will weaken once again as the economy is still rather fragile down under. Inflation is still below the required figure and the Reserve Bank of Australia have suggested on a number of occasions that they will be keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile I fully expect the US to continue on its path of increasing interest rates during the course of 2018 and whilst growth continues to rise in the US I think this will cause global investors to sell off the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar which will provide strong growth and a very positive yield.

This would typically cause the AUD to weaken against a number of different currencies including vs the Pound so I would expect the Pound to make gains in the medium to longer term vs the Australian Dollar.

In the short term the focus will likely turn to what is happening with UK economic data as data in Australia is rather thin on the ground this week.

Tomorrow morning UK inflation is due to be published and this has been a big factor in how the Bank of England has reacted recently as if inflation continues to remain high the general theory is that a central bank increases interest rates to combat high inflation and this would typically strengthen the currency involved.

On Thursday UK Retail Sales are announced and with the previous release having been affected by the ‘beast of the east’ I think we could see the data come out rather positively which could see GBPAUD rates recover towards the end of this week.

If you would like further information about what is happening with the Pound vs the Australian Dollar or if you’d like a free quote to buy or sell Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Jobs data to cause movement this week for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has been trading either  side of 1.80 on the Interbank level during the last few days.

The Australian Dollar has gained by as much as 5 cents vs the Pound which appears to have strengthened against the Pound after a combination of negative data from the UK.

The Bank of England confirmed last Thursday that they would be again keeping interest rates on hold with a 7-2 split in favour of keeping rates the same and this caused the Pound to fall against a number of different currencies.

It wasn’t just the announcement itself but also the downgrading of the recent UK’s growth forecast which caused the Pound to struggle and later on this morning we have a number of key economic indicators in the form of both Average Earnings data as well as UK unemployment levels.

Both have been very impressive in recent times and so another positive announcement could see the Pound improve against the Australian Dollar later today.

On Thursday the focus will return to the Australian jobs market with Australian unemployment data combined with the Participation rate. The expectation is for 5.5% unemployment so anything different is likely to cause a lot of movement.

Personally, I think we could see GBPAUD rates go in an upwards direction if the data from the UK is positive this morning.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency companies for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Is the Australian Dollar likely to improve against the Pound during May?

The Australian Dollar appears to have gone from strength to strength vs the Pound in the last two weeks after the UK has released a string of poor economic data.

Last week UK GDP data for the first quarter of 2018 came in much lower than expected with just 0.1% growth quarter on quarter which is the slowest level since 2012 and shows signs of a real slowdown in the UK.

Only a fortnight ago average earnings had outpaced inflation for the first time in a long time and this increased the chances that the Bank of England may be gearing up for an interest rate hike on 10th May.

However, since then the negative data in the UK means that a rate hike happening next week is now highly unlikely and this is why we have seen the Pound drop against a number of currencies including the Australian Dollar.

Indeed, this is the first time in a few weeks where GBPAUD exchange rates are now trading below 1.80 on the Interbank level.

On Tuesday there is a huge amount of data due out from China and as the Chinese are the largest trading partner with Australia any data announcement can have a big effect on Australian Dollar exchange rates. We see the release of Chinese Export & Import data as well as the Trade Balance figures so if the data is positive this could mean further gains for the Australian Dollar.

In the longer term I expect the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar but in the short term I think the Pound will remain under pressure.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Australian Dollars in the next few weeks it may be worth getting things organised soon.

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like further information about what is happening or for a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for 15 years I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will the Australian Dollar continue to strengthen or will it weaken after the RBA Meeting?

The next key data release for Australia will come on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to discuss their latest monetary policy decision.

The Australian Dollar has been struggling particularly vs the Pound recently when it hit the lowest level since the Brexit vote back in June 2016.

However, towards the end of this week UK GDP for the first estimate saw the slowest pace of growth since 2012 which led to Sterling collapsing against the Australian Dollar as well as a number of other different currencies.

This is good news for anyone looking to sell Australian Dollars to buy Sterling but the question is how long will this last?

I think the gains could possibly be short lived for the Aussie Dollar as have have seen a consistent weakening of the Australian Dollar over the last few months and therefore I think this movement may not last for too long.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold their latest interest rate decision and the current expectations are for a rate hike to come summer 2019.

Inflation in Australia has been an issue for the RBA and therefore I cannot see any positive rhetoric in terms of changing the current expectation and this is why I think we could see the Pound fighting back following the announcement on Tuesday.

Therefore, if you’re considering buying Australian Dollars with Pounds it may be worth being patient and seeing if we have a recovery on Tuesday.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only with being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

To find out more or for a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk