Tag Archives: Tom Holian

Pound makes gains vs the Australian Dollar after Turkish issue and UK inflation data due out (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made some gains vs the Australian Dollar over the last few days and the move appeared to happen following the news in Turkey that Donald Trump has imposed an addition to tariffs on both steel and aluminium on Turkey and this started to cause huge problems in the country.

The Turkish Lira has dramatically weakened in value over the last few days and this has caused a number of commodity based currencies to weaken as global investors have sold off riskier based currencies including the Australian Dollar.

After briefly flirting with rates in the 1.73 levels recently the Pound vs the Australian Dollar is now back to trading above 1.76.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed recently that it will be keeping interest rates on hold while it waits for economic growth to improve and this has also helped the Pound to make gains vs the Australian Dollar and the Australian Dollar is now at its lowest level vs the US Dollar in two years.

The RBA does not appear to be too concerned with the value of the Australian Dollar and because it is a big export market if the AUD continues to weaken then this could help to improve economic growth in Australia.

The UK and the Pound has had a good start to the week against a number of different currencies with the news that UK unemployment is close to its lowest levels since 1975 with the figure now sitting at 4%.

We could be in for further movement later this morning with the release of UK inflation data due to be published at 930am.

Inflation has been a big factor in the Bank of England’s recent decision to increase interest rates and with the data expected to show 2.5% year on year which is above the 2% target then this could provide further evidence in support of further rate hikes in the UK which could help to move GBPAUD exchange rates in an upwards direction.

If you would like a free quote or further information about how to save money compared to using your own bank when converting Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

Will the Bank of England increase interest rates and what will happen to the Pound vs the Australian Dollar?

The big news this week for anyone looking to make a transfer with Australian Dollars and Sterling will be the latest interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday by the Bank of England.

The chances have been increasing recently that the central bank will be looking to increase interest rates in the UK as inflation still remains relatively high. UK mortgage approvals have also gone up recently with the number of approved mortgages having risen to a 5 month high combined with a 2 year high for consumer confidence.

However, I think there could be more reasons behind a rate hike than just inflation.

If we cast our minds back to what happened two years ago the Bank of England slashed interest rates very quickly after the Brexit vote in order to stabilise the economy and encourage consumer spending.

Therefore, I think an interest rate hike this week could happen in order to allow the BoE room to cut rates next year if the Brexit talks go badly and we are left with a ‘no deal’ situation.

Even if we do see a rate hike we may not see the usual increase in the value of the Pound vs the Australian Dollar as it will be the accompanying statement and press conference held by the Bank of England governor that will likely affect the value of the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

Carney has often been a big critic of Brexit and warned that this could cause a lot of pressure on the British economy so I think the rate hike will be closely followed by a rather dovish tone and this could hold back any Sterling advances against the Australian Dollar.

If you would like a free quote when exchanging Australian Dollars or further information then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

The reasons why the Pound could climb against the Australian Dollar this month (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Australian Dollar has remained in a relatively tight range recently although GBPAUD rates have been trying to hit 1.80 on a number of occasions already this month.

In my own opinion I think it is only a matter of time before the Pound breaks past 1.80 as the Australian Dollar is coming under a lot of pressure recently.

The latest report from China in terms of GDP data has shown a slowdown to 6.7%, which although this is clearly much higher than that of any of the western economies this has caused concern for the world’s second largest economy and this has caused the Australian Dollar to weaken against a number of different currencies including the Pound.

The US has been threatening China with a Trade War and has put in potential plans to raise tariffs of US$200bn to come into play in the next few weeks.

Whether or not this is simply the US flexing its financial power or it will take place is anyone’s guess at the moment but the uncertainty it has caused has made global investors move money away from riskier currencies and towards the US Dollar and this has in turn harmed the value of the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia released the latest set of minutes and they confirmed that interest rates are likely to be kept on hold for the time being.

With the US planning further interest rate hikes as well as the UK considering doing the same as early as 2nd August this is another reason why we could see the Pound moving in an upwards direction against the Australian Dollar in the next fortnight.

If you have a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sadly the Australian football team’s time at the World Cup has been cut short and similarly with the currency side of things the Australian Dollar has also struggled during the course of the last month as well.

The Trade Wars between the US and China has caused a big problem for the Australian Dollar as China is Australia’s largest trading partner so any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness.

At the moment threats are that the US could impose as much as US$200bn on Chinese goods and this is causing a very big problem for global trade and as the Australian Dollar is a commodity based currency this has been badly affected in the same way as both the South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar.

GBPAUD exchange rates have been heading in the direction of 1.80 but appear to be hitting a level of resistance just below at the moment. However, I think we could see the Pound rise higher going into next month.

The EU summit will be taking place over the next couple of days and as well as the migrant crisis one of the other main topics for discussion will be the latest developments surrounding the Brexit issue and how the EU will work without the UK.

If the talks go well for the UK we could see the Pound potentially break higher than 1.80 against the Aussie Dollar so make sure you’re well prepared to take advantage of any potential spikes in the Pound’s favour.

We end the week with the final revision of UK GDP figures for the first quarter of 2018 so any revision upwards could also send the Pound in an upwards direction.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when exchanging Australian Dollars then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Could the Pound make further gains this week against the Australian Dollar?

According to many sources the Australian Dollar could be under real pressure in the long term as the Chinese economy continues to slow and the US Federal Reserve continues on their path of raising interest rates.

The Fed has already raised rates 7 times since December 2015 and have already increased rates twice during the course of this year as well.

The Australian Dollar has hit its lowest point vs the US Dollar in twelve months and this has also been caused by the ongoing Trade Wars between the US and China.

The Australian bond yields have now dropped below that offered by US Treasuries and this could get even worse as as the Fed continue their path of raising interest rates later this year.

At the moment the view from the Reserve Bank of Australia is that they are likely to keep interest rates on hold for a long period of time and this is why the Australian Dollar has weakened recently heading in the direction of 1.80 recently.

With the Bank of England due to meet tomorrow afternoon I think the central bank will keep interest rates on hold once again with a 7-2 split but with the UK showing some very positive Retail Sales earlier this month I think we could see some signs that an interest rate hike could be coming sooner than the markets expects and if this is the case we could see the Pound make some further gains vs the Australian Dollar towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Pound hit 1.80 this week against the Australian Dollar?

After having a very good run against the Pound the Australian Dollar has started to weaken in the direction of 1.80 on GBPAUD exchange rates. The confirmation from last night’s RBA minutes showed that interest rates are likely to be kept the same for the foreseeable future as they are helping to keep the economy performing well.

This has caused global investors to sell the Australian Dollar in favour of the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve has already increased rates twice this year and this is the seventh time since December 2015.

Over the years the Australian Dollar has had a very strong positive yield but in recent times owing to the pace of rates going up in the US this has caused problems for the Australian Dollar.

However, not only is keeping interest rates on hold causing a problem for the Australian Dollar they are also facing the effects of Donald Trump’s latest threats of tariffs on Chinese goods.

As China is such a large trading partner with Australia then any negative news will often result in Australian Dollar weakness and this appears to be happening at the moment.

Trump has asked US officials to create a list of US$200bn worth of imports from China which could result in a very large trade war between the world’s two strongest economic powerhouses.

The Australian stock market has felt the effects of the news and the Pound vs the Australian Dollar hit the higher level of the 1.79 region earlier on during today’s trading session.

I personally think we could see the Australian Dollar weaken further this week and I would not be surprised to see the Pound hit 1.80 over the next few days.

On Thursday the Bank of England will hold their latest monetary policy meeting and recently the split has been 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold but with UK Retail Sales coming out much higher recently could this change one of the MPC member’s mind?

If you have a currency requirement coming up and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound vs the Australian Dollar waiting to hear about the EU Withdrawal Bill (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Australian Dollar has crept up during today’s trading session and we could be in for a very volatile period over the next 24 hours as the House of Commons will be debating the latest EU Withdrawal Bill.

The bill was rejected previously by the House of Lords and this is the reason why it has been sent to the House of Commons for another review.

Most of the DUP have said that they will side with Theresa May but if some of the Tory back benchers go against the Prime Minister this could cause a big headache for the government and this could result in Sterling weakness against the Australian Dollar.

By the end of Wednesday and going into Thursday morning we should know the update so if you’re concerned about what may happen then it’s probably worth getting your currency organised as we could see a lot of movement on GBPAUD exchange rates over the next couple of days.

During the voting on the bill this afternoon we have seen one member resign over the Brexit talks and there has so far been a lot of in fighting between MPs.

In the morning UK inflation data is due out at 930am and we could see some market movement on Sterling vs the Australian Dollar but ultimately I think it will be the EU withdrawal bill that will cause the most movement.

If we have a positive result then we could see GBPAUD exchange rates head towards 1.80 but if not I expect the Pound to fall below 1.75.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Australian Dollars compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Reasons to be cheerful if you’re buying Australian Dollars

The Australian Dollar has been trading fairly well recently against the Pound but really struggling against a number of other currencies including vs the US Dollar.

The US are set to raise rates again soon and this could even happen on Wednesday evening when the US Federal Reserve hold their latest meeting.

The US have increased rates a number of times since December 2015 and this could be the second rise this year which is likely to put pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.

Over the years the Aussie Dollar has benefited from high interest rates and a relatively stable economy but as the RBA are unlikely to raising rates anytime soon then this is likely to encourage global investors to move their money away from the Australian Dollar.

The knock on effect of this with anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars could potentially be good news.

In my opinion I don’t think we’re too far away from hitting 1.80 again in the near future but it will also be affected by what is happening politically in the UK.

The UK will debate the EU Withdrawal Bill on both Tuesday and Wednesday and the government is keen to get things sorted before the next EU summit due to held on 28th June.

Clearly the ongoing Brexit discussions are causing uncertainty for the UK economy and this is being reflected in the value of the Pound so any good news next week could see a good period for the Pound vs the Australian Dollar.

I work for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and I’m confident that not only am I able to save you money on exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.

For a free quote then send me an email with details of your requirement and I’ll happily reply.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Pound improves against the Australian Dollar after positive Services sector news

UK services sector data published this morning came out much better than expected and this has put an end to the Pound’s recent demise vs the Australian Dollar.

The sector rose quicker than expected during May which has given rise to a possible hint of an interest rate hike.

The PMI data hit a three month high at 54 compared to the previous month of 52.8 but at the same time the survey did suggest that growth could slow down later this year.

The good news for the Pound is that the services sector accounts for over three quarters of the UK’s economy but is this good news a temporary positive sign?

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit clearly is keeping the Pound under a lot of pressure against a number of different currencies and the EU withdrawal bill will be discussed next week and this could cause further problems for the Pound.

Personally speaking I cannot foresee an interest rate hike coming for the UK at all during the course of the year as we are still deeply involved with the Brexit talks so anything to rock the boat in terms of monetary policy is highly unlikely.

Also, with UK GDP only recently growing at its slowest growth in 6 years a month ago and with inflation falling I don’t think the Bank of England will have much appetite to change the status quo.

Friday could be the biggest day of the week for anyone with an Australian Dollar transfer to make as we start the day with Chinese Trade Balance figures combined with Chinese Import and Export data. Following this the latest NIESR UK GDP estimate for the last three months will also be published and if we see another negative release this could put further pressure on Sterling vs the Australian dollar.

If you would like further information or a free quote when moving Australian Dollars then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. A quick email could save you a lot of money on your currency transfer.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Could Australian Dollar strength continue this week?

The Pound has continued to remain under pressure against the Australian Dollar as the markets are still waiting to hear how the Brexit talks will go in the weeks ahead.

The ongoing uncertainty has piled more pressure on Sterling and one of the only currencies that Sterling is performing well against is the Euro which has struggled owing to what is happening politically in Italy at the moment.

On Friday UK GDP confirmed that the figures grew at the slowest pace in 5 years and this has provided further support for the recent decision made by the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month.

Looking ahead to the next few days there is not too much economic data coming out apart from UK Consumer Confidence figures on Wednesday followed by some housing data due to be published on Thursday.

One of the biggest events of the week in terms of the currency market will come on Wednesday as the US announce their latest GDP figures and typically this will often have a big impact on the Australian Dollar as it will either increase or discourage risk appetite and as the AUD is deemed a riskier currency this can often move the market for GBPAUD exchange rates very quickly.

On early Thursday morning the Chinese publish manufacturing data and then Private Sector credit data a few hours later so if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Australian Dollars over the next few days I think the biggest day of the week could come tomorrow with US GDP data.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

If you would like a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk