Tag Archives: us dollar
GBP/AUD through 1.81 following poor GDP figures from Australia, will this trend continue? (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling pushed through the 1.81 barrier this morning, bringing GBP/AUD to its highest levels since February 2010 – but will this trend continue? Overnight Australian GDP data was released showing a disappointing result of 0.6% down from the expected 0.6%. This has brought the shift in Sterling to just shy of 8% against the Aussie since the end of October – a pretty good return in anyones eyes. For me there is a chance that this run will continue, but I would also urge AUD buyers to consider these gains and view the opportunities currently available.
Looking at the data for the rest of the week watch out for employment figures from the US at 12:15 today and the important non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 on Friday. Any improvement and I would expect further losses for the AUD as this shifts the likelihood of the FED tapering QE a little bit closer, a situation that is likely to bad news for AUD exchange rates. Also watch out for the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow at 12.00, expect to see no change which shouldn’t affect rates significantly but still one to keep an eye on.
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Sterling has rallied nearly 1% against the Australian Dollar. Overnight the Bank of Japan increased stimulus as it aims to double the monetary base over two years through the aggressive purchase of long-term bonds, in a dramatic shift aimed at ridding Japan of the deflation that has dogged the country for almost two decades. This is a bold move for the new central governor Haruhiko Kuroda and may shift investors risk apetite. As a result the JPY has devalued and with the Yen often heaviliy involved in currency speculators risk portfolio this may create significant shifts in currency trends over the coming days creating volatility for the safe haven currencies (historically USD and CHF) and many riskier assets such as the AUD, NZD, ZAR and EUR. Watch out for some big shifts over the next few working days, and possibly some unexpected opportunities for AUD buyers.
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It has been a turbulent week for GBP/AUD with high low rates ranging from 1.5375 to 1.5150 – but where now for the Aussie I hear you ask? The UK economy has taken a bit of a battering this week culminating in poor GDP estimates this afternoon suggesting the dreaded’triple dip recession’ could be on the cards. This is obviously not going to do any favours for the pound and for the time being will keep any gains against the AUD to the downside. Any short term buyers of the dollar may look to secure their position sooner rather than later.
Longer term I am still a strong believer that this year should be slightly more positive for GBP/AUD. I do feel however that any losses for the Aussie will be down to AUD weakness as opposed to GBP strength as early indicators from the UK suggest 2013 could be a rocky road to recovery. That in mind expect little change from GBP/AUD short term (there are some great opportunities for AUD sellers at the moment) however if you have the advantage of time then I feel the rates may tick back towards 1.55-60 territory later this year as I would expect the RBA to cut interest rates in Australia before the end of Q2 and feel the Australian economy may come under some pressure in the coming months due to falling demand in China. I also feel the US debt ceiling deadline in February may cause a sell off from the relatively risky AUD back to lower yielding currencies such as the Pound and USD, as a result I would hope to see some better opportunities for AUD buyers in February and beyond.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia are due to meet tomorrow to decide whether or not they’ll cut interest rates. My personal feeling is that there may be a cut to 3% in order to give the economy a lift. With a recent slowdown in China we have seen Australia’s economy struggle outside the mining industry and so a rate cut could give the boost needed. The US election is due to take place tomorrow night and I feel if Obama comes in we’ll see USD strength and if Romney comes in we could the US Dollar weaken. With USD strength it often goes hand in hand with the AUD so if Obama gets in we could see strengthening for the AUD even if the RBA cuts interest rates tomorrow.
For further up to date information and detailed analysis of what is happening in the currency markets after the US elections feel free to contact me directly. Tom Holian email@example.com
The Australian Dollar Forecast has taken a slight change in direction having reached the highest exchange rate since June 2012 following the European announcement of a €500bn Euro debt rescue fund. The fund is known as the European Stability Mechanism as is set up in order for countries to use if other bailout funds become unavailable. The European Financial Stability Fund still have €150bn available but that may run out before the end of the year if countries such as Spain need a bailout.
This has provided some stability within the region as has encouraged investors to again look at moving money into riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar which saw a drop of 1% during yesterday’s trading session. Columbus Day which was being celebrated in the US meant there was little movement for the US Dollar and therefore the news had a huge negative impact on the value of Sterling. This may be just a short term blip with some analysts believing we could be in for 1.60 on GBPAUD exchange rates before the end of the year if the RBA decides to cut interest rates again.
Later tonight UK time we see the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence report which measures the level of sentiment of individuals and their feeling on the Australian economy.
For any further information about exchanging Australian Dollars or if you would like to ask me a question directly please feel free to contact me Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling has remained strong against the Australian Dollar over the last few days and I think the next movement will be following the release of US Non-farm Payroll data due out at 130pm UK time. The recent interest rate cut and 3.5 year high of the country’s trade deficit has seen the AUD weaken to its lowest level in a few weeks.
Last night’s FOMC minutes (US data) didn’t throw up any surprises so again the currency markets are holding their breath in anticipation of the next move. Indeed, the general consensus is that US interest rates will stay the same until 2015. The predictions for the non-farm payroll data this afternoon is for a creation of 113,000 new jobs so if we see an improvement we could see a sharp sell off from Australian Dollars as funds flow back into the safe haven of the US Dollar. If however we see less jobs we could see the GBPAUD exchange rate drop from its recent highs.
If you have a currency requirement coming up soon and want to find out more about transferring currency at commercial levels of exchange better than bank rates then feel free to contact me Tom Holian email@example.com
Coming this weekend there is a possibility that we might see a bailout for Spain which could lead to stability for the Euro zone and more risk appetite developing for the Australian Dollar. For up to date information contact me directly Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Australian Inflation Data Due Out In Just Over 8 Hours So How Will This Affect Aussie Exchange Rates?
The Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectation data is published overnight tonight and may see some substantial Aussie movement depending on the outcome. The previous figure was 3.3% and expectations are for something similar- however a sharp variation from this level could see a substantive move in Aussie Dollar exchange rates. The higher the consumer expectations, then the more likely the RBA are to hike interest rates, which will see AUD strengthen. However a very low figure may start calls for an interest rate cut which would have the revers effect.
The Aussie has strengthened against the pound and the US Dollar up until this week where it has softened slightly. Earlier in the year the RBA cut interest rates amidst fears over a slow down in Chinese demand and problems in Europe. In recent weeks Chinese data has been a bit more positive and the RBA have resisted the temptation for any further cuts with none expected imminently based on their recent policy statements. This has resulted in the Aussie retaining its strength and pushing back to the near 30 year high against the pound. The inflation data tonight will give more clues as to whether currency traders need to be wary of the hint of a rate cut being put back on the agenda- if you need to buy Aussie dollars then keep an eye out just in case.
If you want to transfer money to Australia or need to sell Aussie Dollars then by all mean feel free to contact Colm at email@example.com quoting ADF in the subject matter and a brief overview of what you need to do. I would be more than happy to have a look at how best to approach your currency exchange and provide you with some indicative exchange rates should you wish to use our award winning service. Best of all it is free and carries no obligation to trade.
The US economy has announced an extra 163,000 jobs created in July according to official figures released this afternoon. The Federal Reserve claims that 100,000 new jobs need to be created every month even just to stand still so 63,000 jobs to be added is rather impressive. this has seen global stock indices rally this afternoon with most improving by over 2% a good sign for the global economy. However, all is not rosy as the unemployment rate rose from 8.2% to 8.3%.
Sterling has been the benefactor of the good news as typically positive news from the US is followed shortly after by the UK so if we as an economy can start improving ourselves we could see Sterling gain against most major currencies. Indeed, Sterling has hit back against the Australian Dollar from 1.4750 to 1.4850 this afternoon. Also Sterling has gained against the US Dollar by over 1% since the low of the day. However, the news from the US has seen investor confidence return to the Euro zone and funds have been flooding back to the continent.
If you have any questions as to what next week has in store please contact me directly Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org Also if you need to make a currency transfer and would rather use an experienced currency broker then also feel free to get in touch. email@example.com
Enjoy your weekend!
The Australian Dollar remains strong against the Pound even though the problems in Europe mean that investors are wary about hugely committing to the Australian Dollar. The problems in Europe have also meant that Sterling is being used as a safe haven which has kept the Pound relatively strong against many currencies and meaning that the GBPAUD exchange rate has not yet broken below 1.50. Spanish bonds have risen to worrying highs and yesterday hit 7.56% a Eurozone record. The release of Chinese PMI came out at 49.5 which although represents contraction it was higher than the previous month which was 48.2. The slightly higher than expected reading meant that as long as China continues to grow this could keep the Australian Dollar supported not just against Sterling but also against Japanese Yen, US Dollar and the Euro.
Central Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has said today in a speech that Australia is in a good position to avoid the global financial crisis and should continue with its current economic policy. The banks seem to be holding up well even though some had made poor lending decisions but he also went to say that the RBA can and will stimulate the economy if necessary. The growing Chinese economy has seen a large demand for energy and resources which has pushed Australia’s trade to all time highs which has supported the Australian currency.
For further information or if you would like a free quote to buy or sell Australian Dollars please contact me Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org quoting ‘Australian Dollar Forecast’ in the title.