Tag Archives: westpac
Sterling has pushed back above 1.82 the highest against the Aussie on nearly three weeks. The move has come about following the RBA minutes out overnight that indicated interest rates in Australia were unlikely to change any time soon. The board judged it was prudent to leave rates on hold while they continued to have the “expected effects” on economic activity.Advertisement “A sustained increase in dwelling investment was in prospect, consumption had strengthened a little and business conditions were around average levels,” the RBA said.
This current market volatility surrounding the Aussie is very much continuing with a near four cent shift in less than a week, a trend for me that is likely to continue.
Looking for the rest of the week and consumer confidence figures overnight from Westpac will make for interesting viewing and this will be followed by the Bank of England minutes and retail sales figures at 09:30 tomorrow morning. A busy week for the pound will also see the official UK GDP figures at 09:30 on Thursday.
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UK Industrial and manufacturing figures this morning were slightly softer than expected and the pound is again positing losses against the Australian Dollar. Later today we will see the UK’s NIESR GDP forecasts, something that can have an impact on GBP exchange rates. The NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) are a well respected think tank and their figures are often close to the official published data. They are forecasting 0.8%, any deviation from this and the pound is likely to react accordingly.
Looking at data for the AUD, later today will see Westpac release consumer confidence figures and on Thursday look out for employment change. Also worth keeping an eye on Chinese Industrial production data and retails sales figures early Thursday.
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As we start what is almost certain to be another busy and volatile day on the money markets what factors should you be watching out for today should you have an interest in the Australian Dollar? Overnight Westpac released its latest consumer confidence figures which were substantially down. Normally I would expect AUD weakness as a result, however we have actually seen some small gains against both the Pound and Euro indicating how out of favour these two currencies are currently. For me any gains from the pounds point of view will depend on whether the UK can avoid the triple dip recession. Indications from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well respected think tank, were certainly positive and suggest that the UK may just avoid recession by forecasting 0.1% growth for Q1 of 2013. It is certainly very finely balanced, however I am confident recession can be avoided and we may see a much needed boost for the pound as a result. Anyone with an interest in GBP/AUD should keep a keen eye on GDP released on the 25th April, a key day in my view.
Shorter term look out for Australian employment data overnight tonight, forecast to stay at 5.4% month on month, any deviation form the expected could cause volatility overnight. Also watch out for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) equivalent of the MPC in the US, as they will release their minutes from the Federal Reserves last interest rate meeting. This can influence investors risk appetite depending on the rhetoric from the minutes and with the AUD a favourite for currency investors it may cause market fluctuation for the AUD following its release at 19:00 BST.
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