For me the short term moves for the pound against the AUD will hinge on GDP figures from China released overnight. Much of Aussies recent gains can be attributed to the still relatively booming economy in China, with GDP breaching 10% at times and with China being a net importer of raw materials from Australia, this helped the Aussie post record gains against the pound reaching a 25 year high in February this year (1.47). At this point the AUD looked as though it would go from strength to strength, then China’s projected growth forecasts slowed and GDP (although still comparatively strong) fell to just above 8%. As a result the impact on GBP/AUD was huge, pushing the market back to 1.63 in a matter of weeks. We have recently seen the dollar fight back to the 1.52 territory but with poor expectations for the GDP data tonight (expected to fall from 8.1% to 7.9%) I would expect the value of the dollar to fall and create some good opportunities for those buying the AUD. For those selling the Aussie, remember we are still just 3% away from 25 year highs against the pound and still touching last weeks all time record highs against the Euro – still a strong sell option in my view.
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