If you are buying or selling AUD watch out for the UK’s revised GDP figures tomorrow and a statement from the RBA tonight

AUDGBP Continues to Rise, But How Long For?

Should you have a requirement to buy or sell AUD there is plenty of data you should be keeping an eye on in the coming days. Starting tonight at just gone midnight BST as we have a speech from the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia. In his conference he will give insight as to the future for the Australian economy and in particular any policies they may undertake. Rumours have been rife for the past couple of months that the central bank are seriously considering a cut in the base rate from the current 3.5% to 3.25% and should Glenn Stevens (Governor of the RBA) hint that this is a consideration then we could easily see the value of the AUD weaken, pushing towards 1.52/53 against the pound. Personally I think we are likely to see a rate cut in the coming months and a move towards the 1.55 territory seen – this is partly due to concerns the Australian economy may well see a significant slowdown heading into 2013. As mentioned by my colleague Daniel earlier this week, Deutsche Bank have warned that with falling commodity prices, due to slow in demand from China for Australian raw materials, this ultimately will lead to a slowdown for the Australian economy and a potential move towards recession. To combat this and to boost the economy a rate cut may well be seen to keep the public spending.

Shorter term, along with the Governor’s speech as mentioned, those with an interest in GBP/AUD should watch out for the revised UK GDP figures released at 09:30 tomorrow morning. Forecasts are for figures to be revised down from -0.3% to -0.5%, a move that may combat any Aussie losses should Glenn Stevens hint at a future interest rate cut. Either way we can expect a volatile 24 hours for the pound and the Australian dollar. Should you have an upcoming transfer and you would like to discuss the service we provide at currencies.co.uk – ranging from the insightful market knowledge to help you make the best decision as when to trade, to achieving and helping individuals and corporate clients a like achieve a much better rate of exchange when compared to the high street banks, then please do not hesitate to contact me (Michael Vaughan) on mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787478 and I will happily be of assistance with your foreign exchange needs.