The Australian Dollar over the last month has weakened by 1.5% on a trade weight basis. This figure is taken by how the Aussie Dollar has performed against 16 of the worlds most traded currencies. Going forward there are numerous factors that will affect the currency strengthening or weakening over the coming weeks.
Three of the biggest factors must be how the Chinese economy performs, If the Euro crisis gets resolved and in Australia how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) views future growth within the Australian economy and if they will look at cutting interest rates.
Overnight the Australian Dollar is slightly higher, against most of its counterparties. Early hours this morning the RBA released its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, which gave a mostly positive reading of the domestic banking sector and consumer spending habits which is what has slightly boosted the currency along with news that China’s economy slightly rose in August.
Now looking forward as the debacle in Europe continues to look unstable I think the Aussie will linger around these levels potentially even weaken by another 1-2% There is around an 85% chance that the RBA will look at cutting rates in October. If this does occur then we may just well see GBP/AUD rates head towards that 1.60 level but more realistically is that we will see no movement and the Aussie may just strengthen by a cent or so.
Considering that just a few weeks ago the GBP/AUD rate was hovering around the 1.47 level I feel that the current rates represent a great buying opportunity.
The next two weeks will be very interesting with a lot of data to come out of Europe and China. If you are selling AUD now may be wise because if there is a rate cut down under the rate may just spiral. If you are buying Aussie Dollars levels are at their best levels for weeks but a limit order with us may be ideal as we will try and help you achieve a slightly better rate than what is currently available.
We assist thousands of clients here in the UK and in Australia with their currency conversions. We will not be beaten by any banks quotes and for private individuals we offer you the same options as we would a corporate clients which most banks just will not do.
If you have a requirement to buy or sell the AUD against any major currency then please do feel free to contact me at [email protected] and I will talk you through all the options that are available to you.