Australian unemployment data released yesterday showed that the unemployment rate remained at 5.4% in line with expectation which is a two and a half year high. This has slightly weakened the AUD$ but only by a small amount as often currency markets move more when figures are better or worse than expectation. The number of people in employment has grown by 18,900 to 8.13mn but the figure was tainted by an 8,000 drop in part time jobs to 3.393 million. The figures are neither good nor bad so the GBPAUD exchange rates have only moved in a small range.
Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold which was a surprise to many and I’ll be honest including myself as I thought with the aggressive cutting displayed earlier this year I thought interest rates may drop to 3%. As the RBA kept rates the same and with job numbers remaining within a comfortable range I think next month the RBA will now do the same and keep interest rates on hold. One of the reasons why the RBA didn’t alter monetary policy was that the global economy looks to have settled down and with Obama coming in for a second term I would be surprised to see GBPAUD exchange rates improve in the short term as investors look to plough more funds into the Aussie.
Later today both the Bank of England and the European Central bank meet to discuss interest rates. There has been a lot of talk about the Bank of England and more Quantitative Easing measures this month as November is the time when the previous amounts are due to run out so if you have a requirement to sell Sterling and buy Australian Dollars it may be worth having a chat with me today. Feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian [email protected]
Australian Dollar Forecast today is for GBPAUD exchange rates to drop to below 1.53 on mid-market this afternoon.