UK GDP are due out at 930am this morning and expectations are for a fall to -0.1%. If this is the case we could see Sterling exchange rates drop against the Australian Dollar as the market reacts to the data. GBPAUD exchange rates have dropped by 3% since the turn of the year and this could be a key catalyst for Sterling’s most recent falls against other major currencies. If GDP figures are negative this will point us in the direction of another recession for the UK. Officially we will need to see two consecutive quarters of negative growth in order to be in recession but at the moment things are looking this way.
With recent high street stores Comet, HMV & Jessops all having problems we could see unemployment rise in Q1 for the UK and with unemployment rising this is often detrimental to the Pound. However, if the GDP figures come out positively we could see Sterling improve. Personally, I think we’ll see the UK figures as negative.
If you are concerned about the data releases and how this may affect your exchange rate to buy Australian Dollars please do not hesitate to contact me to find out how we can save you money on your currency transfer compared to using your bank. Tom Holian [email protected]