This morning rates have peaked at close to 1.5850 the best levels against the Australian Dollar since October 2012 and prior to this you have to go back until June 2012 before the heady heights of 1.58 were seen. How long before 1.60 is seen? For me it could be as early as Tuesday next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest interest rate decision, for me there is an outside chance the RBA will cut interest rates and should this occur then I believe 1.60 is a distinct possibility, however I also see this as a potential short term banana skin as I for one believe the RBA will refrain from cutting this time round and will resist until later this year – this for me is likely to give the AUD a short term shot in the arm and rates could tick back towards 1.56.
For anyone buying AUD short term I would suggest looking at your options as this is a potential opportunity. Since March the moves have been significant gaining in excess of 9% in less than 8 weeks. I often look at the market in terms of returns and compare to an investment – as an investor if a share returned 9% gains within a two month period you would be ecstatic and you would potentially look to redeem those profits, the same could be said for the Aussie, yes we are on a significant upward turn but I feel it may well correct itself in the not too distant future.
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