Following the unexpectedly weak unemployment figures that Mike mentioned this morning, the Aussie Dollar has clawed back some ground against the pound and USD as the day has worn on. The figures have led some to believe that the RBA may have to go back on their recent policy statements of not cutting rates again in the current cycle, however I think this may be somewhat of a knee-jerk reaction and think they will stick to their guns for now. We do have Chinese inflation data out early tomorrow morning so this may pile a little more pressure on if it is weak but I think much more movement in the short term will depend on next week’s data.
We see UK inflation, unemployment, and retail figures on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday alongside the Bank of England minutes (although I am not sure the minutes will add too much more to the comments Carney made at yesterday’s inflation report) so a strong showing in all of these could help the pound. However the recent atrocious weather in the UK may have dampened shoppers appetite to hit the high street, and I am still dubious about how the UK unemployment rate has come down so quickly. More important in my view will be the RBA meeting minutes, and the US Fed minutes on the morning of the 18th and the evening of the 20th respectively. Personally I expect a bit of Aussie weakness in advance of this which may tempt buyers, but if the RBA still hold their nerve the exchange rate will drop.
If you are looking to buy Aussie then the next few days could be very important so if you are looking to make a currency transfer and want some more information about how to get the best rate then feel free to email Colm at [email protected] of call 01494 787 478