UK GDP data this morning could impact GBP/AUD exchange rates (Mike Vaughan)

Pound Pushes Higher Against the Australian Dollar on Recent Economic Divergence
Michael Vaughan

Sterling could come under pressure today following the release of the UK’s latest revised GDP figures. Forecasts expect a fall month on month from 0.8% to 0.7% and could lead to some sterling weakness at 09:30 this morning. This will be the last revision from Q4 2013 – of course any figures better than expected and we could see sterling strength.

Looking at ahead anyone with an interest in the Australian Dollar and watch out for US initial jobless claims tomorrow at 13:30 followed by a speech from Janet Yellen at 15:00. An improvement in unemployment data and positive sentiment for the US from Yellen, and a nod from Yellen towards a continuation of tapering of QE and this could put some pressure on the Australian Dollar.

For me looking at the long term picture for the Aussie and I still believe levels will shift towards 1.90 and beyond in the coming months. With concerns about a slowdown in China’s growth (a huge net importer of Australian raw materials) Australian unemployment at a five year high, and the RBA still citing concerns over the strength of the AUD and the impact this is having on the country’s exports, then I firmly believe anyone buying AUD is likely to see more value.

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