AUD rates wobble this week – weekly forecast – STEVE EAKINS

AUDGBP: Australian GDP Disappoints, AUD Weakness
Steve Eakins

The GBPAUD rates continue to wobble as I predicted last week. Plus Economic data due this week will be key for the exchange rates for the remainder of the month.  Earlier today the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that they would keep interest rates on hold at 2.5%, in line with the expectations they gave at their last meeting, this gave the dollar some strength. Tomorrow the Australians release their Gross Domestic Product figures for Quarter 4 of 2013, these are predicated to show a reasonably strong figure and could easily push the value of the dollar up helping sellers.

There is however a underlying risk to the strength of the dollar. This is coming from what is happening in the east of Europe around the Crimea region of Ukraine. As tensions rise between Russia and the rest of the world it is impacting risk appetites of traders. This is resulting in a run to “safe haven” currencies changing in demand for the dollar and therefore its price. The AUD has already taken the value of the AUD down in my view and could easily continue to have an impact until the story dilutes.  The price of gold for example yesterday reached a 4 month high and grain prices rocketed as Ukraine in one of the largest producers.

Later this week we also have UK data, GDP figures and Inflation reports tomorrow. The Pound is expected to continue to strengthen unless the floods start to impact the economy.  My view this week; a volatile week however the trend will probably be GBPAUD positive unless the tensions between Russia and Ukraine changes.

If you are trading the AUD then you need to watch rates closely, any change can make a significant difference on your transfer.  Here we help our clients do that by giving them a full break down of what is happening, what is expected to happen and the potential impact on the GBPAUD pairing.  For example information giving our clients an idea on the potential range within their timeframe and when the peaks may come.  If this is of interest to you then please get in contact as we can have an informal chat with no obligation to use our service.  With over 14 years’ experience I am 100% comfortable that we will be able to save you money on your transfer, if that was not the case we simply would not be in business.  Contact myself – STEVE EAKINS – by email at hse@currencies.co.uk or by calling the normal number – 01494 787478

Look forward to hearing from you.