Crimean Issue and Impact on Australian Dollar (Tom Holian)

Australian Dollar to Pound Forecast: Risk Sensitive AUD Likely to Remain Under Pressure

The Crimean referendum taking place today is worrying for global investors owing to the instability of the region. If things continue to remain unsolved then I think investors will sell off riskier currencies including the Australian Dollar which could mean GBPAUD rates on the rise for the early part of the upcoming week. The US has clearly shown its hand to be in support of Crimea remaining part of the Ukraine so the referendum as far as they are concerned is illegitimate and won’t carry any weight. However, if Putin carries on in his support of the referendum this could mean sanctions being imposed on Russia causing international tension again highlighting the problems for global investors.

On Tuesday the RBA minutes will be released and this will be closely watched for any signs that the previous announcement to end the interest rate cutting cycle was rather early. The RBA is clearly worried about the strength of the Australian Dollar but it has been decided at least in the short term that interest rates will remain the same.

the Bank of England minutes are due on Wednesday morning and recently Mark Carney has generally kept the Pound strong with his comments so another bit of confidence could see Sterling Aussie rates go in an upwards direction on Wednesday morning.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to compare rates then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk