The Australian Dollar has continued to gain against some of the majors and notably has strengthened by another couple of cents in the last week against the pound. It was not long ago that GBP/AUD was over 1.90 and today has weakened to a low of 1.8273. This is a sizeable contraction in the space of 6 weeks. The markets are awaiting the release of the RBA minutes to see what their stance is on future interest rate policy. Recently they stated that they will not be cutting interest rates further and this has lent support to the AUD against the pound causing the strength.
If you are looking at buying or selling the Aussie against the pound there are numerous releases here in the UK on Wednesday which could cause the rate to go one way or the other.
UK Unemployment figures
Currently sitting at 7.2% the markets have been eagerly watching this release ever since the BoE Governor Mark Carney stated that once unemployment falls below 7% they would consider hiking interest rates. Last month was the first month that the figure came out worse than expected. If we see the rate head back down towards the 7% level then this could cause a spike as the debate about interest rate hike will come into force once again.
Bank of England MPC Minutes
This release gives us an indication on what way members of the MPC voted on interest rates and QE from the decision two weeks ago. It is always very interesting to see how many members have voted for a rate hike or for it to stay the same. Recently all members have voted for interest rates to stay at the same 5 year low of 0.5%. Should just one member vote for a rate hike then again this could give the pound a slight boost and if economic data continues to be positive this will be one to watch over the next few months.
Always very hard to predict how this will affect the pound. Chancellor George Osborne will no doubt confirm how all the recent austerity cuts have helped the economy to grow in the last year and give himself a big pat on the back. He will be aware as all of us are that the recovery is far from over. This could mean that he implements further cuts and tax hikes to continue to try and reduce the countries budget deficit.
If you are looking at buying or selling the pound in the run up to this extremely busy period you may be wise to look at your exchange in advance of Wednesday to limit your exposure to currency fluctuations.
I feel you will see GBP/AUD be fairly stable up until Wednesday and if you see a spike in the right direction my recommendations would be to capitalise and not take too much risk.
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