Today we have a whole host of data starting with both the Bank of England Minutes and UK Claimant Count due out at 930am this morning. We have already seen since this morning a positive movement of almost 1 cent from the low to high. Last month’s UK unemployment data showed 7.2% and personally I think this will be better and if we see 7% this puts more pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates which means we could see Sterling strengthen quite quickly if the data is positive.
For me the Bank of England minutes are unlikely to show too many surprises so I don’t think this particular release will cause too much movement. However, the UK Budget is due out today and with an election predicted for next year I think the changes won’t be too dramatic as the good news is likely to be delayed until 12 months time.
According to data provided by Bloomberg the currency forecasts for AUD exchange rates have been increased against the US Dollar and even after some poor Chinese data recently. Chief economist Bill Evans from Westpac has said the bank think it’s unlikely that there will be an interest rate cut during this year but personally I disagree as unemployment has risen to a 5 year high down under and the cost of living is a problem so I feel there is room for another rate cut before the end of this year.
If you would like to find out what effect the Budget release will have over the next few days email me directly and I’ll explain how the exchange rates may move during this week following the announcement.
If you have a currency requirement to make and want to save money email me directly Tom Holian [email protected]