UK GDP data the key for the pound today. Has the tide turned with GBP/AUD? (Mike Vaughan)

Increase in Risk Appetite Helps Support the Australian Dollar

Sterling found some support yesterday following much stronger than forecast retail sales data. This morning will see the release of the latest revision for Q4 UK GDP at 09:30. It is expected to be revised down from the previous quarter to 0.7% from 0.8% which could put some pressure on the pound, however should yesterday’s figures be anything to go by this forecast could be off the mark and may give the pound a welcome boost based on the recent trend.

In fact the pound on Wednesday was trading at its lowest level against the AUD since November last year. Moves have come about following a speech Wednesday night from RBA governor Glenn Stevens who predicted a housing boom was looming in Australia. He also indicated that there has been encouraging evidence that the handover from mining to non-resources industries in the Australian economy was under way. He was also to focus on China saying it was too early to say if the slowdown in China was a large one.

His comments seem to be a complete reversal from only earlier this year in which he cited concerns over the strength of the dollar and the impact it was having on exports and had still not ruled out interest rate cuts. Any chances of this certainly seem to have been dispelled and could this be the turning point for the Aussie?

Should you have an upcoming currency transfer to arrange involving the dollar, and in particular buying the Australian dollar, this trend is a concern. To discuss my views in more detail and the service we provide in full please email me with an overview of your currency requirement and I will assist you as best I can. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk