GBP AUD Nears 1.83 With UK Retail Figures Due Out Shortly (Colm Gilhooly)

Australian Dollar to Pound Forecast: Risk Sensitive AUD Likely to Remain Under Pressure

The Aussie has dipped recently following the RBA lowering growth expectations over the next 2 quarters, and consumer confidence figures overnight have done little to support AUD.  This morning at 9.30 we see publication of the Bank of England Minutes, and the latest UK retail figures.  Most UK data recently has been positive and markets have once again been pricing in this positivity into the value of the pound.  The only drawback for sterling have been the Bank of England again highlighting at their Quarterly Inflation Report last week, that the positive news doesn’t mean UK interest rates will be going up any time soon.  Carney has also stated the UK could be facing a housing bubble unless property supply increases, and may re-examine their help to buy scheme.

I doubt the Minutes this morning will do much to change forecasts from last week, but there is always an outside chance that an MPC member will soon vote for a rate hike which would likely signal sterling strength.  In any event a strong set of retail figures could help sterling push on, but if you are looking to transfer money to Australia just be careful that a slightly below par performance today could see a reasonably good buying opportunity slip.

The other big news will be the US Federal Reserve Minutes published this evening.  Again the Fed have been taking a very dovish stance on monetary policy and the pace of easing their Quantitative Easing program.  However any change in tone here could cause a change in global confidence but also signal less readily available global liquidity which could damage the value of the Aussie Dollar as carry traders once again move out of the higher returns on offer to cover their base currency.

If you would like to get the best exchange rate for your money transfer then please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.