GBP/AUD rates have dropped slightly over the past 24 hours, following the release of the latest Chinese GDP figures. Rates were sitting close to a 3 month high but despite the positivity surrounding the UK economy, Sterling was struggling to make any serious moves towards the four year highs we witnessed at the start of 2014. If we are going to see rates put pressure on 1.90 again, then another shift in market conditions is certainly required. Whether this is an interest rate hike by the BoE, or further cuts by the RBA, it needs to be significant enough to drive Sterling up by roughly another 7 cents.
Personally I feel this is unlikely in the current climate and even more so following the release of the latest Chinese data, which has boosted the AUD. The Australian economy relies so heavily on positive growth in China (they are Australia’s largest trade partners), which means that the AUD is likely to find market support in the short-term following the release and a move back towards 1.80 is now a strong possibility.
The current levels still offer some excellent buying opportunities and if you do have an AUD purchase over the coming months it may be prudent to consider a forward contract around the current levels; in order to protect yourself against any potential market losses.
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