GBPAUD rates have dropped again over the weekend and many have been asking whether we they should trade now or hold. The decision really depends on the time frame within which you need to make your transfer and the risk appetite that you have. No one can guarantee anything in the currency market as no one has a crystal ball. Saying that however trends can be found along with economic data releases suggesting day trends.
The GBPAUD pairing is one that does have shorter trends than most. Larger longer term swings are seen however trends can still be found and taken advantage off.
The larger trends are normally driven by the more central policy decisions like interest rate decisions and QE programs. Currently there seems to be a clear path that the UK will raise interest rates in the medium term, suggesting that there will be better times to trade buying AUD between now and the end of the year. In the shorter term US data seems to be positive and helping strengthen the AUD along with a hand up from China data which is also helping. In the 24 hour window we look at economic data releases to see what is expected and what could happen.
This week US jobless data at the end of the week is probably the largest impacting data release however watch out for end of month movement which could also swing markets on Thursday Friday. So back to the question, what would I do? If I was a GBPAUD trader this week I would hold until Wednesday, if I had a month I would wait for another 14 days, if I have 3 months I would wait until September before making a decision. If I was a AUDGBP trader looking to move this week I would go ASAP, within the month I would probably not be far off and look at moving maybe next week if my nerves lasted and if I have three months I would probably still move sooner rather than later.
If you however have a large amount of money, remember you don’t need to move in one go. You could split the amount and therefore the risk to the market giving you a better average rate of exchange.
For more information, a breakdown of each strategy, the forecasted prices in the future or simply a live price please contact the author STEVE EAKINS via email at [email protected]