Day of reckoning looms for Scotland and more importantly GBP/AUD (Ben Amrany)

Australian Dollar Looking Bullish

The pound has today recovered fairly well against the AUD rising to a high at one point of 1.8325. This is a stark improvement from the lows of 1.71 just 10 days ago. This is a rise of around 6.5% in 10 days and should seriously be considered.

The rise is mainly due to expectations of a no vote for the Scottish referendum and the sell off of AUD after comments from the FED in the US regarding no dates on when interest rates will rise in the U.S. We will get the results to the referendum in the early hours of the morning UK time all being well. The way that I see it is as follows. There is likely to be a massive reaction, particularly for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a further appreciable sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

Tomorrow will one way or the other cause wide variations in the exchange rates and it would not surprise me if by close of play tomorrow GBP/AUD could be as high as 1.85 or as low as 1.76 depending on the outcome. If you are looking at buying or selling the AUD against the pound it may be wise to inform me of your requirement and I can explain the options available to you to help you minimise your risks to the market. You may email myself Ben Amrany at [email protected] 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

[email protected]