The Australian dollar has continued to fall recently as I have previously predicted. This has been down to a continued onslaught of China and US data that have both showing improvements. This has increased the demand for riskier commodity based currencies including the Australian Dollar making it more expensive to buy as a result. What we have also seen which has been a little under the radar, is sterling weakness due to a change in interest rate change forecasts. The market now seems very comfortable to predict that the UK will not raise interest rates until 2016, weakening demand for the UK Pound as an investment and resulting in its value to fall. All in all AUD holders should be rather happy at the moment as rates have moved by over 5 cents within the last fortnight as a result of the above.
The question now is, will this trend continue?
I personally think that it will yes, I think that there is certainly more risk than opportunity for anyone looking at buying the Australian Dollar. UK Data continues to disappoint as the deflation problems in Europe, their largest trading partner, infects the economy in the UK. The trend for US and China data, however variably, will probably continue in this positive manner. So if you have AUD to buy in the next few weeks I would be getting very wary. I would again highlight that if you ignore the last 3 weeks, these are the best levels to buy AUD for months if not years!
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