Over the last 30 days GBPAUD rates have fallen by over 3%, making a GBPAUD $200,000 purchase nearly £5,000 more expensive. There is however hope for AUD buyers as information this week has changed forecasts for the pairing. This is the expected timeframe of a change in interest rate levels in Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia is now expected to cut interest rates at their next meeting which is over the Easter weekend. The result, we have seen GBPAUD rates climb by over 4 cents in the last 3 trading sessions and I expect this to continue in the build up to the event as the market prices in this expectation.
This means that BUYERS will have an opportunity in the near future along with a choice to make. Do you either trade on the expectation that is priced in before the event or on the actual release. When the news is confirmed I would expect rates to climb slightly, however if the cut does not happen or smaller than expected it is safe to see we will see GBPAUD rates drop back down. My personal view, I would move on the expectation rather than the actual event. This being for the simple reason that we will see rates either go up by a small amount or fall back by a big amount, I don’t think that the risk is worth it myself.
For more information on how to trade over the event, to register for SPIKE notifications or to discuss the pairing more generally please feel free to get in contact. Feel free to email me directly on [email protected] or call on the normal number and ask for myself, Steve Eakins.
I hope you found this useful.