GBP/AUD rates have dropped close to a 5 month low, providing an excellent opportunity for those clients looking to sell off their AUD positions. The AUD has struggled to make any sort of sustained impact against Sterling over recent months, which means the recent improvement holds even more value.
The AUD has struggled due to a number of factors, not least the major slowdown seen in the Australian economy over the past 12 months. Australia’s links to China mean the negative downturn in their economy has hit the Australian export industry hard and this in turn has weakened the AUD. Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on the export of its vast supplies of raw materials, so when this sector of their economy falters the Australian economy as a whole will slow. Australia’s mining sector produces some of the highest global labour costs, which can only be sustained by a buoyed and growing export industry.
Whilst the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have remained steadfast in their commitment to lower the value of the AUD to boost exports, it may be we have seen GBP/AUD rates bottom out. I still think the Pound will find protection around the 2.05 mark, although following the recent market developments I cannot see a return to the 2.20 levels witnessed during the summer.
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