What effect will the EU Referendum have on my Trade?

AUD GBP Struggles at the 0.5350 Price Level

Australia’s economy still appears to be standing strong despite a reduction in China’s growth. During the early hours was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision took place and there was no shock move as rates remained at the same level.We have seen a small spike for Sterling during today’s trading but I would not expect a significant rally.

The key factor in any trade involving Sterling at present is the EU referendum. Current polls suggest that those who wish to remain in the EU are in front with a 1% lead. Looking purely from an economic perspective, if the UK were to leave it will be catastrophic for the UK. Trade relations will be in tatters and I would expect GBP to fall against the Aussie by up to 30 cents. If we remain expect a smaller correction of around 15 cents. I think the media are going to be far more pro staying in the European Union as the referendum draws closer and when the votes come in I think the UK will remain in the EU. Would I bet my hard earned money on us remaining in however? Probably not, weighing up risk vs reward and the polls being so tight if I was an AUD buyer I may bite the bullet.

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