GBPAUD now comfortably trading above 2.00, further AUD weakness looks likely (Joseph Wright)

Pound Pushes Higher Against the Australian Dollar on Recent Economic Divergence

The current upward trend for GBP/AUD is yet to show any signs of slowing down, as once again today Sterling has far gained on the Aussie with the high of the trading day so far at 2.0388.

Sterling sellers are currently in a far better position now than just a few weeks ago as Sterling’s upward bounce has been significant and brought on due to a number of different factors.

The principle driver of GBP exchange rates presently is the predicted outcome of the EU Referendum next month. The relationship between the majority of GBP exchange rates and the predicted EU outcome is very straightforward, the less likely a ‘Brexit’ the stronger Sterling becomes and vice-versa.

The reason Sterling’s gains against the Aussie have been so magnified is become at the same time prominent UK bookies and pollsters are suggesting the ‘Remain’ campaign has gained a strong lead, members of the Reserve Bank of Australia have become increasing dovish regarding the economic outlook for Australia, whilst at the same time they’ve cut the Interest Rate down from 2.00% to 1.75% and hinted at further cuts in future, which has softened the Aussie’s value in general and particularly when compared with a surging Pound.

It’s worth noting that last night RBA Governor Glenn Stevens made it clear that the door is open for further monetary loosening in future, and his speech saw AUD exchange rates drop across the board.

Moving forward, I’m expecting Sterling’s gains to subside but I can see the pair leveling out and trading within the current range for some time. I think GBP/AUD 2.00 will act as a support and I don’t expect the pair to fall below 2.00 this month or next unless there’s a big swing in the ‘Brexit’ polls.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you plan to make involving Sterling and Aussie Dollars, feel free to contact me regarding my forecast. You can also take advantage of the high levels of security and award winning exchange rates offered by the specialist foreign exchange brokerage where I work, just email me (Joseph) on [email protected] or call me directly on 01494 787 478.