GBP/AUD is already all over the place this morning, recording some of the largest movements on Sterling’s currency pairings. And, noticeably, this movement is currently negative.
There will be a number of factors affecting the value of the Pound today, all based around expectations surrounding the Referendum. Will confidence in the UK financial markets fall? Will the current downpours favour the more steadfast leave voters? Will indications from privately conducted exit polls suggest favour for one camp or the other?
Entering into the day polls were at a dead-heat. After the May election polls haven’t had the same level of trust as they have in the past, so even if there was a strong favouring for one camp over the other, markets may not necessarily price this into the Pound.
The downside risk for a Leave vote far outweighs the gains if we decide to stay for anyone considering buying foreign currency. HSBC and Goldman Sachs predict a 20% fall in the value of the Pound should a leave vote win out, meaning that soon we could be closer to 1.6 than 2.0 on GBP/AUD. Should we stay I fully expect a rise on Pound value, but certainly not to the same degree, a confirmation of the status quo cannot equate to radical change.
It is a flip of the coin at this point, moving forward it entirely depends on the risk appetite of the individual entering the marketplace.
The sensible option for anyone considering buying Australian Dollars over the next few months would be to get a rate secured. Rates are still 16 cents higher than their lowest levels in April when the Leave Camp had their greatest lead.
I strongly recommend that anyone with an Australian Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 00 44 1494 725 353 and simply ask my reception team to be put through to Joshua to receive a quote on your transfer and to discuss the options open to you limit your exposure over the near unprecedented volatility expected today.
Or feel free to email me with a short description of your requirement and the best number to reach you on in order to discuss your requirement in more detail. [email protected]