GBPAUD rates have risen over 1.70 as sterling finds a little more support during a tough week and a raft of Asian data does little to lend support to the more recent strength on the Aussie. If you look at Chinese PMI, it came in just above 50 at 50.1. Anything above 50 represents expansion so in theory this is mildly supportive but a couple of notches lower and it represents a decline which would be negative for the Aussie. Other data came from Japan where New Home Sales were much lower. With Japan buying raw materials from Australia which would be used in the Construction sector less home sales will not be good for the Aussie economy. We have also had some Australian domestic data with Private Sector Credit slipping which explains the slight weakness from yesterday on the GBPAUD rates.
If you have a transfer buying Australian dollars then this spike might be well worth taking advantage of. The expectations for sterling are not good and currently we are trading at very close to a 2 week high. Next week is the all important UK PMI data which is according to an assessment of the recent business surveys, unlikely to be positive for the pound. Next month is also the release of the first GDP release for the UK following the vote, we have seen deterioration’s in many areas of the UK economy, namely the Services sector and business confidence. What has kept sterling above water since the vote has been the impressive Retail data. This was based on good weather and a feel good factor from the Olympics, this is clearly not something we can rely on to support sterling in the next few months!
With the new RBA Governor making clear he is moving away from constantly cutting interest rates that ‘have little impact’ Australian dollar buyers upset at the recent moves lower on GBPAUD should not be crying over spilt milk. Historical followers of the rate will remember when GBPAUD dropped to 1.50 5 years ago. Looking at all the data in front of us and the expectation the Bank of England will cut well before the RBA do, a move into the lower 1.60’s seems very probable next month.
If you have a transfer to make and are interested in learning more. I would be interested to speak to you and help provide information to help you make a decision. Nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, making plans in advance even for the long term is usually a good idea. My name is Jonathan Watson and I am ready to speak to you. Please email [email protected] or fill in the form below.
The author is Chief Analyst and Associate Director at one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages.
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