I would be surprised to see the pound making big further gains against the Australian dollar since the prospect of the triggering of Article 50 is looming large in the coming weeks. The passage of the bill to trigger Article 50 is making its way through parliament and the House of Lords, most expect that the bill will pass but there is plenty to be conscious of to trigger sterling weakness.
Most commentators expect that the pound will therefore struggle particularly as economic uncertainty also starts to bite. If we do not look to the slightly deteriorating economic data on Retail Sales the political uncertainty itself is likely to be a big drain on the pound in the coming months. Another factor is of course what is happening in Australia with the upcoming economic data there. The Chinese economy appears to be going from strength to strength which combined with improvements in the prices of commodities is also leading to a much stronger Australian dollar.
Many analsysts believe that the Australian bank will no longer be seeking to cut interest rates and will instead be looking to raise interest rates at some point in the future once the Australian economy shows real signs of improvement. The overall factors that will I believe influence the rates are continued changes in the rate of Inflation in Australia. Notably the market is closely monitoring the situation for any signs that the bank will be forced to raise rates. Of course one thing the Australian bank do not want is a overly strong currency so this is something to also watch out for.
On the whole it seems the market will favour a stronger Australian dollar as investors predict their interest rate will rise at some point in the future. If you have a currency transfer to consider why not speak to me Jonathan Watson about everything that is happening to move your exchange rate? Please email me on [email protected] to get a full overview of the market and your position.