The impact of Article 50 on the Australian Dollar vs Sterling (Tom Holian)

AUD GBP Lower Ahead of PMI Data for the UK Economy

How will the Pound be affected by Article 50 has been a question that I have been asked constantly over the last few days and with just a few days to go before Article 50 is formally triggered we will soon know the answer.

Sterling has had a very positive week vs the Australian Dollar but could that be driven by investors looking to make some short term gains before the uncertainty as to what may happen next week?

My personal expectation is that the uncertainty as to what will happen over the next 2 years as negotiations start to take place is likely to cause problems for the Pound.

With 27 European member states likely to make the talks difficult and protracted I don’t see why we should see any positive moves for Sterling at least for the time being.

There is an argument to suggest that the value of Sterling against the Australian Dollar has been kept at these low levels for some time as the trigger of Article 50 has been priced in but I think there are further losses to occur for Sterling next week.

The accompanying press statement by Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to cause huge swings for GBPAUD exchange rates as people try to second guess what they think will happen and it depends on her rhetoric.

Clearly she’ll try to reflect a positive stance but I think the Pound will struggle against the Australian Dollar.

Therefore, if you’re thinking of making a currency transfer and want to avoid the uncertainty of what may happen by the middle of the week it may be worth buying your currency beforehand.

If you don’t have the full availability of funds at the moment you may wish to buy a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date of a small deposit.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates and help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian [email protected]