Is the RBA’s monetary policy working, and how will this impact AUD exchange rates?

Australian interest rates have been set at 1.5% for around 20-months now. This is the longest period of time the rates have remained the same and interestingly, this is the lowest that interest rates have been in Australia.

Rates were dropped to this level back in August 2016 in order to stimulate the economy after it begun to show signs of a slowdown, and since then the RBA monthly meetings have been non-eventful. This is in stark contrast to back in 2008-2009 when the rates were changed on almost a monthly basis.

There are no changes expected for the next 6-months, which differs to the forecasts in the UK for example where the Bank of England is expected to hike rates at least once this year, with some forecasters predicting up to 4 over the next 18-months or so. The Fed Reserve in the US is pushing forward with the most aggressive monetary policy changes within the developed world, and this has negatively impacted the value of the Aussie Dollar as people are beginning to pool funds in the USD now that they can get a better return than when they hold funds in AUD.

Due to the Aussie economy not picking up much steam despite the low rates, and the RBA’s tentative approach to raising rates due to fears over an overheating house market, I think that we may see the AUD continue to lose value as the year progresses.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.