The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has been above 1.80 comfortably now for a period and the outlook is now much more positive for the future. The Australian dollar has been losing its shine as investors look for more profitable avenues overseas which include the US dollar. A key driver of late on GBPAUD has been the interest rate changes in the US and the UK, with them hiking, as in the US, or on the way to hiking – the UK.
This difference in outlook compared to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) who are currently refraining from hiking has allowed big movements on the pound and US dollar against the Aussie. The RBA has been monitored very closely over its performance and attitudes to raising interest rates and this will likely continue to be a feature in the coming months.
Generally speaking, I would imagine the RBA will continue to be soft in its assessments moving forwards and this will keep the Australian dollar on the weaker side. Despite this, the Aussie may well find some favour if there are any unexpected twists and turns or bumps in the road on the US and UK path to raising interest rates.
Another factor which will likely weigh on the GBPAUD rate will be the progress on Brexit which could see the pound to Australian dollar rate fall below 1.80 if there are further troubles over the Irish border or concerns over what type of trade deal the UK will get. Any surprisingly strong data from down under might see the Australian dollar fight back against sterling too.
In April I expect a range between 1.78-1.85 as the conditions that have seen us hit the current rates of exchange continue to act as a driver on the pair. Thank you for reading and if you have any upcoming transactions and wish for some insight and information on achieving the best rates of exchange, please do get in touch with me Jonathan Watson by emailing [email protected] directly.