The Australian dollar has come under a recent wave of pressure losing ground across most of the major currencies this week. The Aussie has lost more than 4% over the last month with a noticeable fall against the US dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are keeping all option open with regards to interest rate policy and the wording of whether or not interest rates will rise or fall in due course. However the RBA Governor Philip Lowe has indicated that he expects rates to rise and this was made clear when he last spoke.
The reason for the Australian dollars weakness is most likely due to the trade war escalations between the US and China. Whilst I have previously commentated that trade links between Australia and China are very strong and that Australia could be shielded by protectionist behaviour the recent escalation in tariffs is now having a detrimental effect on some of the other commodity currencies such as the Aussie. There is currently a better opportunity to buy Australian dollars.
The concern is that if global growth slows due to a trade war then the riskier currencies likes the Aussie are likely to feel the full force of slower growth and should see their respective currencies weaken. For the moment it’s all eyes on these developments and Trump had really signalled that he would seek to impose another $100 billion of tariffs on Chinese exports if there was like for like retaliation. Expect more developments form this story and potentially additional losses for the Aussie.
Brexit continues to be the main driver for GBP AUD exchange rates and should see a volatile period ahead with the EU summit next week. British proposals on the future relationship should be made public very shortly and are likely to appear after the EU summit. The response form the EU as to progress so far will be very important for the pound and any escalation in tensions or the
potential for a no deal scenario is likely to result in sterling weakness. There is still an excellent opportunity for clients looking to sell Australian dollars. In my view once a deal thrashed out then the pound should strengthen materially. Although there is a risk of a no deal scenario which would be sterling negative, in my view this does not seem the most likely outcome and I am bullish for the pound in the medium term.
To discuss how these events will directly impact on your own currency requirement and how to achieve the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me James at [email protected]