GBP/AUD – Sterling remains fragile due to the lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and poor economic data. If there is progress in Brexit negotiations expect the pound to rally. Unfortunately very little progress is being made. The current point of contention is the Irish border deal. At present Theresa May and David Davis are unable to even agree on a back up deal if a deal on the Irish border cannot be reached. Ideally they would like to have something in place before the EU summit on 28th June. The current situation does not bode well for Sterling.
Recent data releases continue to be poor, manufacturing data this week saw the biggest fall since October 2012 and GDP came in below expectations at 0.2%. Average wage growth also saw a decline, unemployment remained unchanged, but it is important to remember that zero hour contracts are not a stable form of employment.
I am of the opinion there is little justification for a rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in the coming months and would be surprised to see one this year.
Thing are not all rosy down under however. Australia is heavily reliant on China purchasing it’s raw materials, particularly iron ore. The ongoing trade war with China and US is a concern. If China’s growth drops, so will the demand for Australian goods and services which will hit the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.
There are economists with the view there is the possibility of a rate hike from the RBA this year. I am not so confident.
If you are buying Aussies GBP/AUD is currently range bound between 1.75-1.80. Aim for 1.77 + if you have to move short term.
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If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at [email protected]. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson