The Brexit saga continues and now we are looking at an extension. GBP/AUD rates had recently risen to the highest levels since June 2016, breaching 1.88. This can be attributed to positive news surrounding Brexit, rumours were circulating that Brussel’s could make concessions on the Irish border and the chances of a no deal scenario dropped considerably.
PM Theresa May addressed the nation yesterday evening and made a plea to MPs to support her deal ahead of what is likely to be a third and final meaningful vote.
May also confirmed she had written to President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk to request an extension to Article 50. she has requested an extension until 30th June.
She also stated that she would not approve a long term extension to Article 50. This immediately raises the question whether this means she is prepared to step down as Prime minister should her deal be voted down and and then vote for a lengthy extension for talks.
She also said “this House will have to decide how to proceed”, if her deal is rejected for a third time.
If May were to resign you can expect this to hurt Sterling significantly. GBP/AUD has now dropped into the 1.84s.
US/China Trade War – Due to Australia’s heavy reliance on China purchasing its goods and services and slow down in Chinese growth has a kick back on the Australian economy and in turn the Australian Dollar.
The US/China trade war is currently hurting the Australian Dollar and if it were not for Brexit I think Sterling could be making decent gains against the Aussie.
There were rumours the trade war could be resolved by the end of the month, but Trump yesterday threw a spanner in the works saying the following:
“We’re not talking about removing them, we’re talking about leaving them for a substantial period of time,” “Because we have to make sure that if we do the deal with China that China lives by the deal because they’ve had a lot of problems living by certain deals.”
Brexit will continue to be the key driver on GBP/AUD. I think at this point we are looking at an extension as both parties do not wish to deal with a no deal scenario. I think if an extension is called there will not be any great shakes on the market. If Brussels do give concessions on the Irish border however, expect substantial Sterling strength.
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