The Aussie Dollar has been suffering lately, with no luck going into the latter end of this week either. Despite the RBA’s governor Philip Lowe suggesting that QE was not a tool to be used right now, he failed to remove it out of the question altogether and this has instilled fear of QE being utilised in early 2020.
QE Looking Likely for the RBA in the Early Stages of 2020
Economists have tipped QE for the RBA in early 2020. The current target for inflation has not been met and this has thrust the QE or negative rates into the question for the RBA. The markets are beginning to fret whilst the labour market deteriorates despite interest rate cuts from the bank. To rub salt into the wounds of the AUD, the global economy is still dragging its way through a slowdown. However, Lowe stated on Tuesday that extreme policy actions like these will be unlikely for Australia as the AUD growth should pick up next year.
What Would QE Mean for the Aussie Economy?
QE refers to the creation of new money from the RBA in order to buy government bonds and force their yields lower. These yields are integrated into all the interest rates that are charged across economies so when they are forced lower from central banks an indirect reaction of a reduction in borrowing costs for companies and households is also induced. The general idea with this is that low borrowing costs leads to more spending which ultimately can help lift inflation towards a predetermined target. However, in doing so QE means a lower return for investors and a more unattractive currency.
Us-China Trade Talk Looks to Break down Once More, AUD Looks to Suffer
For weeks the AUD has been banking on a successful trade deal between the US and China. Things appeared to be going well recently, but news broke yesterday that President Trump has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law this week which has sparked immediate reaction from China. Investors are now worried that a breakdown could come to light as China sent threats of retaliation to the decision. The AUD is heavily reliant on the Chinese economy and therefore, should the deal not go through, it will likely face losses.
Feel free to email me, Dayle Littlejohn if you would like to know more on the factors affecting the AUD/GBP pairing or have an upcoming currency transfer [email protected].