Australian Dollar to Pound remains below 0.5, Could the AUD Mount a Comeback?

AUD GBP Boosted but a Busy Week of Data Begins

The AUD to GBP interbank exchange rate today has ranged between 0.4881 and 0.4908. Anything below 0.50 has represented the lesser trading range for changing Australian dollars to pounds, and anything above 0.5 has represented the better trading range.

Number of Cases Exceeds 1 Million Globally

The number of coronavirus cases globally, has now exceeded 1 million. Australia still has a relatively low number of reported cases with just over 5,000, compared to the UK of just over 33,000. If the lower number can be sustained, then that might help gain support for the Australian dollar currency and we could see the AUD to GBP forecast increase.

The UK government has announced changes to its business emergency loan schemes, including the removal or reduction of personal guarantees for small business loans, and government loans extended for midsized firms with turnover between £25 million and £500 million.

This morning, UK data released at 09:30am is expected to show services purchasing managers index for March come in markedly lower at 34.8 against a previous reading of 53.2. This is no surprise given that this will start to show the effects of Covid-19 when it started to affect the UK last month when a number of business were forced to close including pubs and restaurants.

Better Australian Retail Sales Data Released

Despite the Coronavirus pandemic, there was positive data released this morning in Australia with the retail sales for the month of February being released which came in better than expected at 0.5% against a forecast 0.4% and a previous reading of -0.3%. Next Tuesday, the market will be looking to see if the Reserve Bank of Australia will make any further changes to its interest rate, and whether any further fiscal stimulus might be made to support the Australian economy.

Australia are taking the pandemic seriously to the extent that they are not allowing the crew of multiple virus-stricken cruise ships into the country. Currently over 15,000 people, are being affected with a dozen ships believed to be off the coast of Australia. “We have issued notices to all of these ships to leave Australian waters,” Australian Border Force Commissioner Michael Outram told local media on Friday.Whether this is against legal or moral obligations, they clearly do not want them entering Australia and spreading the virus and also this would cause the number of cases in Australia to increase over the current 5,000 level.

This could help the Australian currency outlook as the lower the number of cases, the less of a burden it will pose on their economy and health service and the quicker they could come out the other side of this pandemic. If they do come out of it quicker, then if you are asking yourself should I buy Australian dollars now, then it might be worth considering if Australia is lightly scathed then its currency might recover quicker.

For more information on AUD or GBP exchange rates for an upcoming currency transfer, you can contact myself, Brett Goulty, using the form below.